UAAP S74: ADU vs UP

History Lesson:
A poor shooting first quarter by both sides saw the score at 8-6 Adamson, after ten minutes, but the Falcons more than made up for it in the second period, knocking down 5 of 8 triples, and getting five charities after fouls on three point attempts. It was all downhill from there for the Maroons, with their fastbreak and perimeter game stymied, as the Falcons won 72-46. Alex Nuyles led with 21 points, while Lester Alvarez had 16, as the two combined to rain down seven triples on the Maroons. On the flipside, Mike Silungan topped the UP scoring charts with 12, but missed all seven of his outside attempts. (Recap here)

What's at Stake:

• The 7-3 Adamson Falcons will want to get back on track after their tight loss to FEU last Saturday. Had they won that game, the Falcons would have had the inside track on the second of two twice to beat advantages, but with FEU climbing up to 6-4, the Falcons will have to earn it the hard way by stringing together some more wins and staying ahead of the Tams.
• At 2-8, there's no chance the Maroons will return to the Final Four anymore, but they can head into next season with some momentum and play spoiler at the same time by dealing with the Falcons. 

ADU Stat to Watch : The FEU Tamaraws showed how vulnerable the Adamson Falcons are if their shots aren't going in. As an exclusively jump shooting team with little post-up presence, an off-night for the Falcons had them going 17.65 percent from downtown, their worst of the season, and 31.75 percent overall from the field, their second worst since their season opener versus Ateneo. That means Adamson will have to work to get better looks and to mix things up with more slashes to the basket as they can't settle all the time for low-percentage shots.
ADU Player to Watch : While not exactly the key piece in the Adamson line-up, this team gets on a roll when Lester Alvarez finds his stride. Versus FEU, Alvarez was just 3 for 9 from the field, with all but one attempt, a miss, coming from inside the arc. He also finished with just a single assist. If he can bounce back in a big way, the Falcons ought to find this game a breeze.

UP Stat to Watch : UP's offense has dropped precipitously in the second round, to the point where they're now last in the league in scoring (59.6 points), field goals made (23.2 per game), field goal percentage (34.47 percent) and all things free throws (8.8/14.8 on average, for 59.46 percent). The Maroons are even more reliant on jump shots than the Falcons, sort of explaining why they haven't been putting up any points.
UP Player to Watch : Former Blue Eaglet Paolo Romero has emerged as a steady contributor for UP, averaging 11.67 points and 5.3 rebounds in the second round. His jump shot may draw his defender, a Jan Colina or an Eric Camson, away from the basket, improving the spacing for a slasher like Jelo Montecastro


Prediction: Adamson Soaring Falcons