NCAA S87 F4 Preview: #2 SSCR vs #3 CSJL

History Lesson:
Jul. 20: San Sebastian 71 - Letran 62 (recap)
Sept. 30: Letran 82 - San Sebastian 81(OT) (recap)

How CSJL could win: An early 25-10 hole in the first meeting between these two teams gave Letran fits, as they ran out of time trying to eat into a lead which they were never able to overturn. The Knights played things closer in the second game, down 20-15, but tying things up at the half, before taking a small lead at the end of three quarters. The difference came down to tactics. Letran had 18 second-chance points (thanks to a 20 rebound edge on the offensive glass), to just nine by San Sebastian, with a tie in turnover points. Game two saw Letran go back to what they do best, with a 22-8 turnover point score, but a 17-8 deficit in second-chance points. Making the decision easier is the fact that the Stags turn it over 21.58 times, worst in the league.


CSJL could use big games from:

• Kevin Alas. Letran's best scorer was sidelined with five fouls in round one, finishing with 14 points, four rebounds and four assists. Playing more in check in round two, Alas played all but five minutes, tallying 22 points, six rebounds and 10 assists in the win.
• Franz Dysam. The Robin to Alas' Batman also played poorly, with a five point, two assist, one steal game in round one. That jumped up to 12 points, three assists and three steals in the rematch.

How SSCR could win: The Stags have a knack for starting strong, holding foes down to an average of just 31 points in the first half, thanks in part to shutting down the outside shot, just 25.32 percent allowed from outside the arc. Their second half defense is much weaker however, as their points allowed shoot up to 39.16. Thus it becomes imperative that San Sebastian start strong and construct a large enough lead to survive the second half, something their offense was unable to sustain versus San Beda in their last two matches. To do that, they need to get out and run. They norm 14.11 transition points but notched just 20 in two games versus the Red Lions, and haven't hit 20 points since CSB nearly a month ago.


SSCR could use a big game from:

• Calvin Abueva. "The Beast" was miserable in round two, going 1 for 12 from the field, though he made up for it with a 14 for 15 stint at the line and 20 rebounds. For sure, he'll want to bounce back after that kind of a shooting night.
• Ronald Pascual. San Sebastian's inside-out threat averages 40 percent from the field this season, but he hasn't gone over 40 percent in his last seven games, shooting just 31.71 percent in that time.
• Ian Sangalang. The third-year center loves this match-up. He's averaged 22 points on 65.22 percent shooting, 16 rebounds and 3.5 blocks, as the Knights are often powerless to stop the big guy.

Prediction: SSCR Stags

NCAA S87 F4 Preview: #1 SBC vs #4 JRU

History Lesson:
Aug. 10: San Beda 77- JRU 69 (recap)
Sept. 14: JRU 76 - San Beda 65 (recap)

How JRU could win: In their second-round match-up, the Heavy Bombers managed to conk out the machine-level efficiency of San Beda, holding them to a season-worst 12 assists. That led to the Red Lions scoring their nadir of the season, a puny 65 points, which is a big deal considering how this squad has broken the century mark three times this season. It didn't help that the normally productive bench unit of Coach Lim came up with just 21 points, the only time this year it's scored less than 31. With all of that in mind, it seems like JRU may want to try to let Garvo Lante try to beat them on his own (5 of 18 for 20 points in round two), while shutting down the rest of the team. That's certainly a risky proposition, but it may be a gamble worth taking, given how they're already the underdogs in this series.

JRU could use big games from:

• John Lopez. The big man scored just eight points on 4/9 shooting in round one, but more than doubled his output in the rematch, 17 points on 10/17 shooting.
• Nate Matute. JRU's designated sniper always seems to get open versus the San Beda defense, shredding them for 7 triples in 16 attempts versus the team.
• Raycon Kabigting. Team captain was invisible in round one (eight minutes, 0 points, 0/1 from the field), but had a key role in game two off the bench (20 minutes, 13 points, 4/9 from the field).

How SBC could win: After a pitiful 1 for 11 outside shooting performance versus Lyceum, the defending champs have been shooting lights out, 40 percent to be exact, in the last three games. Combine that with their big man depth, and a concentrated effort to run more since that JRU loss (from nine fastbreak points to 16.71 in their last seven), and it's clear that taking down San Beda at this juncture is a daunting task. But the Red Lions' trick up their sleeves may just be giving the Bombers a taste of their own medicine. JRU forces a league-best 21.94 turnovers per game, but they themselves make a third-worst 20.89 miscues in each outing. And since JRU doesn't have the firepower that San Beda does, that could lead to a hole they can't climb out of.

SBC could use a big game from:

• Garvo Lanete. San Beda's go-to guy had 23 points on 5 of 11 three-point shooting, 7 for 17 from the field, with five assists and two turnovers in round one. He scored 20 in round two, but needed a 3 for 10 from downtown, 5 for 18 field goal clip to get that, along with just a single dime and three errors. 
• Dave Marcelo. Graduating big man is 8 of 10 from the field versus JRU, but in game one, he complemented his scoring with eight rebounds, five blocks and one turnover. In game two, he had just three boards, no blocks and five turnovers.
• Anthony Semerad. The shooty big man is a mismatch for every team in the NCAA, but has played a grand total of seven minutes versus JRU this year because of injuries. In his last three games, he's normed 13.67 points, making half of his 14 triples, and is 12 for 17 from the line. 

Prediction: SBC Red Lions