FilOil Mythical 5 (20 games in)

Yes it's early, so early that San Sebastian hasn't even played a single game yet, but after hitting the 20 game mark yesterday, it's time for a look around the summer league to see who's been tearing it up.

Center: Greg Slaughter of ADMU - 27.3 minutes, 18.5 points (55% FG, 58% FT), 12.3 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 2.3 blocks, 2.5 turnovers

You can also make the case for Ola Adeogun, who is playing less minutes (23.8 points), thus averaging less points (14.0, on 60% FG, 67% FT), but still has more boards (12.8) and assists (1.3), and I bet some San Beda fans are rolling their eyes at the supposed homer-ism right now.

All that said, I don't like the fact that Adeogun turns the ball over more (3.3), and you have to consider the fact that right now, everyone save for Slaughter on Ateneo is playing poorly. Salva's been inconsistent, Ravena's shot is missing, the point guards aren't scoring, etcetera, etcetera. He's responded to the situation by putting the Eagles on his back, and that makes him more mythical in my eyes.

Power Forward: Jam Cortes of CSJL - 30.7 minutes, 14.0 points (47% FG, 86% FT), 10.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 blocks, 2.0 turnovers

True he's been playing quite a bit of center with Raymond Almazan injured, but Cortes is a power forward at heart, so I'm slotting him in there. Cortes is another guy carrying his squad, with the aforementioned Almazan out, and with Kevin Alas still regaining his bearings, it's been all Jam for Letran, and he's picking up on the consistent production he was churning out before he got an ejection in the second round of last season's NCAA tourney. He wasn't quite the same player after that, but he seems to have rediscovered his spark in the FilOil.

Also considered: Eric Camson

Small Forward: Bobby Ray Parks of NU  - 26.3 minutes, 20.7 points (33% 3PT, 54% FG, 76% FT), 6.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.7 turnovers

The LeBron James of local collegiate basketball, Parks has been the prime beneficiary of NU's shift to an up-tempo, turnover generating beast of a team, allowing him to get into the open court more, where he excels (aside: I can't believe it took them a full year to realize that NU should be running on every play).

Also considered: No one!

Shooting Guard: Mark De Guzman of NU - 25.0 minutes, 12.3 points, (53% 3PT, 45% FG), 2.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.3 turnovers

The most difficult position to fill so far. I considered RR Garcia (more point guard than shooting guard), AJ Serjue (only played two games, one was great, the other was crap), Julius Armon (28% FG shooting???) and Carlo Lastimosa (only played one game against a weak opponent), but ultimately I went off the grid here and picked another NU Bulldog, Mark De Guzman.

Why Mark De Guzman? The former CSB Blazer has, in three games, converted 9-of-17 three pointers (53%), giving Bobby Ray Parks what he sorely lacked last season: a consistent outside threat to throw it back to after he drives into the heart of the defense. If NU goes places this season, it'll be largely because of the addition of De Guzman, preventing guys from doubling Parks and Emmanuel Mbe.

Point Guard: Roi Sumang of UE - 31.5 minutes, 16.5 points (45% FG, 42% FT), 5.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 3.0 steals, 1.5 blocks, 3.0 turnovers

Sumang looked like a shell of his former self last UAAP season, due to a knee injury that he spent a lot of last year recovering from, but he's rediscovered his edge, churning out a pretty amazing statline, and standing out on a nondescript UE Red Warriors squad.

Sure he has some flaws, he's only played two games, he hasn't made a triple, and his free throw percentage is subpar for a point guard, but his league-leading assists number says a lot, and would be higher if his teammates could convert more shots. Toss in three steals and a block and a half per game, and Roi's the man.

Also considered: RR Garcia

FilOil 2012 - Why Has Ateneo Looked Off?

After steamrolling through much of the UAAP tournament last year, Ateneo has yet to find their groove in the FilOil tournament. A combination of new personnel, the loss of Emman Monfort and Kirk Long (the two guys mostly responsible for setting up the table for their teammates), and minutes being spread throughout the line-up has seen the Eagles' numbers plummet. As a result, they've been having a hard time putting away sub-par competition (they beat a Kevin Alas-less Letran squad and a Perpetual Help Altas team by a combined six points).

UAAP S74	ADMU Averages	FilOil 2012
72.29	Points	58.50
21.67% (2.59 / 11.94)	Three-point percentage	18.75% (3.00 / 16.00)
46.48% (22.94 / 49.35)	Two-point percentage	39.13% (18.00 / 46.00)
41.65% (25.53 / 61.29)	Field goal percentage	33.87% (21.00 / 62.00)
72.54% (18.65 / 25.71)	Free throw percentage	60.00% (13.50 / 22.50)
43.00	Rebounds	53.50
17.53	Assists	16.00
15.65	Turnovers	19.00
14.53	Fast break points	10.50
16.76	Bench scoring	20.00

One Blue Eagles whose shot has been particularly off in the early-goings of this tournament is Kiefer Ravena. While he's made some crucial scores (in particular, a triple right after Letran had tied things up in the fourth quarter), he's been unable to hit the mid-range jumper so far. That said, he's been compensating in other aspects, which is what you'd want from your star when his attempts aren't falling.

UAAP S74	Ravena Averages	FilOil 2012
27.60	Minutes	26.50
13.60	Points	11.50
52.29%	Two-point percentage	29.41%
44.85%	Field goal percentage	26.92%
4.20	Rebounds	5.50
3.00	Assists	4.00
1.50	Steals	2.00
1.70	Turnovers	0.50

Can the Eagles bounce back and post an impressive win against the NCAA champions, the San Beda Red Lions? We'll find out later at 5:15pm at the Arena in San Juan.

EDIT: Ravena's averages versus San Beda (two games in last year's Fil-Oil, one game in the PCCL) are pretty amazing. In 28.33 minutes, he norms 18.33 points on 61.11 percent shooting, four rebounds, 3.33 assists and 0.67 steals to just 1.67 turnovers. If he's going to snap out of his funk, San Beda's a good a time as any.

FilOil 2012 - April 14 box scores

Box scores for ADMU over CSJL, SBC over DLSU and NU over JRU, under the cut

FilOil Random Thoughts - Gameday April 14, 2012

ADMU vs CSJL

• Ateneo lost three of their four best perimeter defenders to graduation, Kirk Long, Emman Monfort and Bacon Austria. Their ability to stop trigger-happy guards immediately gets tested as they go up against the likes of Mark Cruz, Kevin Alas, and Kevin Racal. Can Juami Tiongson, Kiefer Ravena, Tonino Gonzaga, and new Eagles Kiefer Lim and Nico Elorde pick up the slack?
• That said, Kevin Alas is still questionable for today's game. 

Game Day! Hope I can play! Arriba Letranista!
— Kevin Louie Alas (@kevinlouiealas) April 14, 2012

• The Greg Slaughter (13.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 blocks) - Raymond Almazan (7.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.6 blocks) match-up could decide the game. If Slaughter gets into attack mode early and gets Almazan into foul trouble, that opens up the interior for Ateneo's slashers. 
• Another intriguing match-up will be Nico Salva (13.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 47.15% FG shooting) against Jam Cortes (12.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, 49.48% FG shoting). Salva will drag Cortes to the perimeter, where he's got the advantage, but on the flipside, Cortes can punish Salva by backing him into the post. 
• Ateneo has a hard time with physical defenses, as seen in their struggles against San Sebastian in the PCCL. Letran plays a similar kind of defense, though they do not have an all-around Calvin Abueva type who can stop multiple positions. Time to see if the Eagles have learned from that thrashing. 

SBC vs DLSU

• Player most likely to excel under new head coach Ronnie Magsanoc: Baser Amer (18.5 minutes, 7.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.9 steals). Amer had a hard time adjusting to then-head coach Frankie Lim's system, which saw him constantly checking over his shoulder to see what play he needed to run on that specific possession. If Magsanoc is more willing to let Amer get creative and run wild, he could put up near his high school numbers average of 11.7 assists
• Player most likely to excel under new head coach Gee Abanilla: Joshua Webb (9.6 minutes, 3.5 points, 1.5 rebounds, 0.6 assists). Last season saw Webb post his worst numbers since his rookie year, as then-head coach Dindo Pumaren buried him on the bench. We saw glimpses of this already in the PCCL, when the Archers turned Webb loose, allowing him to post several double-digit scoring games  (13.75 points through 4 games. When they got knocked out versus Letran, he tellingly only tallied 6 markers). Webb in transition and coming off the weak side is tons better than the catch-and-shoot Webb we saw in Season 74
• The last time these two teams played, San Beda needed a game-winner by Garvo Lanete to come out on top, 70-68.
• No Arnold Van Opstal for La Salle, as he's still nursing an injury. That leaves Norbert Torres, Papot Paredes, Yutien Andrada, Jovet Mendoza and Ponso Gotladera to go up against Ola Adeogun. 

Missing out on filoil due to a torn hamstring. Sorry to the fans and supporters, very unfortunate and ill timed.
— Arnold van Awesome (@Arnoldvanopstal) April 3, 2012

• Intriguing rookie match-up: Julius Armon versus Jeron Teng. Of course, Armon has several years on Teng, plus experience playing in the Fr. Martin Cup, while Teng is fresh from high school, though to his credit, he has played in international competition. Still, Armon is much more of a polished product at this point than Teng that this could get out of hand should they face off one-on-one. 

NU vs JRU

• The last time these two teams played, it was in the PCCL and a Bobby Ray Parks-less NU team fell 66-62 to a complete JRU squad.
• NU's biggest weakness, an average of 19.14 turnovers per game, happens to be JRU's strength, 21.58 turnovers forced for 18.37 turnover points. If the Heavy Bombers defense can disrupt the undersized NU point guards, Cedrick Labing-isa, Robin Rono, Gelo Alolino, and rookie JJ Alejandro, this could be a long game for the Bulldogs
• Intriguing match-up: John Villarias (10.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.2 steals) versus Bobby Ray Parks (20.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.1 steals).

FilOil 2012 Rosters

These are the rosters as of April 13, 2012. Yet to submit are FEU, JRU and NU. These are courtesy of Inboundpass.com

FilOil Preseason Tournament Rosters

10 Must-Watch FilOil Games

Arranged in chronological order, here are my picks for 10 must-watch Fil-Oil games, featuring rivalries, storylines, player match-ups, and of course, Ateneo versus La Salle-ness.

1. April 14 - 4pm - Group A: SBC Red Lions vs DLSU Green Archers
Of all the opening day games, this is the most intriguing because these two marquee teams underwent a ton of offseason changes. Both will have new coaches, Ronnie Magsanoc for San Beda, and Gee Abanilla for DLSU, and both will parade some fresh new line-ups, most notably two guys with huge star potential, Julius Armon and Jeron Teng, respectively. When they played each other last year, it was a close affair, with San Beda banking on superior end-game execution late to edge La Salle 70-68. Will that be the case this year? We'll find out soon enough.

2. April 21 - 3:30pm - Group A: SBC Red Lions vs ADMU Blue Eagles
When these two teams met last season, it was Kiefer Ravena's grand debut, then the second time, it was the Eagles' coronation night, as they won their first FilOil title. Toss in the fact that once again, these two squads are the defending champions of their respective leagues, and the whole Semerads defection/hijacking (depending on which side you're from) issue, and this is a must-watch game.

3. April 27 - 1:45pm - Group B: SSCR Golden Stags vs NU Bulldogs
Ask Bobby Ray Parks what aspect of the game he was most unready for in the UAAP and he'll tell you it was the physicality that he was least prepared for. Again, this was in the UAAP. Now he'll be up against probably one of the most physical teams ever, the reigning PCCL champs. And while the Stags don't have nearly the deep line-up that NU will be parading, they will have Calvin Abueva and Ian Sangalang, two guys who could probably go toe-to-toe against Parks and Emmanuel Mbe, and even come out on top.

4. April 28 - 1:45pm - Group B: ADU Falcons vs FEU Tamaraws
Two teams that always bring it that will come out with revamped rosters. We'll find out how Adamson will look like minus the dynamic point guard duo of Jerick Canada and Lester Alvarez, while on the flip side, we'll also get a glimpse of how FEU defends without Aldrech Ramos patrolling the paint. And more importantly, whether or not these two squads are still Final Four contenders.

5. May 4 - 3:30pm - Group B: FEU Tamaraws vs SSCR Golden Stags
A battle between the two bridesmaids in their respective leagues last season, it will also be a contrast in styles, as FEU will try to catch fire from long-range via RR Garcia and Terrence Romeo, while the Stags aim to dominate the shaded area with Abueva and Sangalang. Most intriguing side story? The Bringas brothers playing against Baste, as Arvie (the younger) was a high school standout there, while Mark (the elder) had a cup of tea with the Stags in NCAA Season 84 before transferring to FEU.

6. May 5 - 3:30pm - Group A: DLSU Green Archers vs UST Growling Tigers
It'll be brother versus brother when Jeron Teng faces off against Jeric Teng, with the two likely guarding each other in the process. Also, an underrated plot line: two Petron Blaze Bosters assistants going up against each other in Abanilla versus Pido Jarencio.

7. May 16 - 1:45pm - Group B: EAC Generals vs AU Chiefs
With the NCAA looking to impose a ban on foreigners a few seasons down the road, Fil-foreigners might become the thing, and these two squads have a headstart on it, with EAC tapping Joshua Torralba and Igee King last season, and AU revamping its roster to feature AJ Serjue and James Forrester. If the rest of their respective squads click, either could wind up as a dark horse in their mother league. This game could be a good gauge of that aforementioned "clicking."

8. May 23 - 1:45pm - Group B: FEU Tamaraws vs AU Chiefs
Oh look, an old friend for Far Eastern. Former championship-winning FEU coach Koy Banal will play across the Tamaraws this time, backed up by his new squad, the Arellano University Chiefs. Not only is AU's coach new, their squad looks a lot different, what with Gerald Lapuz and Andrian Celada out, and some Fil-for blood injected. Bert Flores going up against his old mentor will definitely be worth watching, along with a RR Garcia-Vergel Zulueta scorers' duel.

9. June 2 - 11:30am - Group A: SBC Red Lions vs CSJL Knights
A likely NCAA Finals preview, San Beda has added motivation coming into this game, as Letran is the school that was the biggest advocate of eliminating foreign players. Meanwhile the host school Letran will be looking to kick off their hosting stint with a bang by declawing the defending champs. Warning: this game WILL get physical.

10. June 2 - 4pm - Group A: ADMU Blue Eagles vs DLSU Green Archers
On one hand, La Salle is 4-0 against Ateneo in the FilOil. On the other hand, in those four years, Ateneo has always wound up raising the UAAP trophy a few months later. Trend, omen, or coincidence? Whatever it is, this is definitely a must-watch game. As if I needed to tell you that!

2012 FilOil Schedule

This is the schedule for the 2012 FilOil Flying V Hanes Preseason Cup, as of April 4. As is usually the case, expect certain playdates to change because of things like, the date of teams' overseas training changing, PBA-DL conflicts, Fr. Martin Cup conflicts, etc. etc.

All 18 UAAP and NCAA teams will be participating this year, as opposed to last season when Perpetual Help went into hiding. Teams can field foreign students, but only one per team on the court, and the big twist is that everyone in the line-up has to be eligible for their upcoming home league season. Can't field all your just-about-to-start residency players this time.


FilOil Schedule - April 4, 2012

Coaching Search: Replacing Norman Black

With Ateneo announcing Black's departure after Season 75, Blue Eagles fans have already whipped themselves into a frenzy over who his replacement should be. Black leaves a large pair of shoes to fill, especially if he exits with a fifth straight title in hand, so there's absolutely no pressure on the next guy (that's sarcasm, by the way). Who's available and how likely is that person going to be the choice? Here's a semi-serious look at a list of candidates, with some gambling odds thrown in.

 Olsen Racela: 2-1
After retirement, Racela was installed as the head coach of the RP Under-16 team which bagged fourth place in Vietnam last October, losing only two out of their eight games. You can argue if there's more pressure coaching a national squad or coaching Ateneo, but the point guard considered by many to be the best in the business back in the day would carry a lot of good will into the job, and perhaps more importantly, will be able to steer some of his U-16 charges towards the blue and white.


Sandy Arepacochaga: 3-1
Jamike Jarin: 5-1
If you're looking for continuity in the basketball program, the best thing to do would be to elevate one of these two Norman Black assistants to the big chair when he leaves. Arespacochaga can't be blamed for a third place finish in his one stint as head coach as that was the season Larry Fonacier went down with an ACL injury. Surely he deserves a second chance? Alternately, you could go with Jarin, who steered the Blue Eaglets to multiple titles, even before a kid named Kiefer Ravena became part of the squad. That said, Jarin could be eyed to take the San Beda head coach position should Frankie Lim incur an extended suspension, though things could change in the light of Norman's exit.

Leo Austria: 25-1
I put Austria on this list despite having no clue how many years he still has on his contract with Adamson, but here are a few things I do know: Austria is possibly the most brilliant tactical mind in the UAAP next to Black, and has done great things with an Adamson team that doesn't have near the resources of an Ateneo. More importantly, he seems like the type of person Black would wholeheartedly endorse after the two coached a mix of Falcons and Eagles in Hong Kong two years ago. Plus, his other son Ged Austria, is presumably enrolling in Katipunan this upcoming school year so who knows?

Ricky Dandan: 40-1
Despite currently employed as the head coach of the UP Fighting Maroons, Dandan has quite some links to the other university on Katipunan. He used to be an assistant for Joe Lipa when Lipa was head coach, and then became the director of Ateneo's basketball program up until he left for UP. Perhaps he gets lured back to his old stomping grounds, this time as the head coach?

Yuri Escueta: 75-1
The current head coach of Ateneo's Team B could in theory move up to Team A, and Escueta was coached by Black in the past, so he could conceivably implement Black's system. However, let's not forget that Escueta has just a year under his belt at this very moment of coaching said Team B. Perhaps if Black was leaving in five years, not one.

Chris Tiu: 100-1
Well, Tiu doesn't seem interested at all in the PBA, and he was quite the disciple of Black, so maybe he makes the leap to coaching? He could probably help channel talent from Xavier School to Ateneo, and younger brother Charles could even be an assistant, splitting time with his duties on the Powerade staff.

 Chot Reyes: 150-1
Maybe we've got this MVP coaching carousel all mixed up and Reyes becomes the odd man out in the big leagues, sending him back to the collegiate game. While part of him might relish the idea of piloting his alma mater, it seems like he's destined for bigger things like the National Team, so this one feels like a bit of a reach.

Jong Uichico: 200-1
Uichico used to be part of Black's coaching staff in Magnolia, and is currently not doing anything besides consulting for Meralco. Plus, his son was a Blue Eagle (albeit, a benchwarmer) for a season or two under Black. Maybe he takes the job to stick it to La Salle for not getting him when Dindo Pumaren resigned? He has said though that he refuses to coach Ateneo, but maybe MVP can convince him otherwise? 

Rajko Toroman: 400-1
Hey, Toroman only has a two-year consultancy contract with SMC. Maybe he gets bored just sitting around consulting and wakes up one morning to find out that MVP is dangling him an offer that doubles his salary to coach Ateneo, with someone like Arespacochaga filling in the 2013 season as interim head coach. Maybe we'll see an influx of Serbian-Filipino big men don the blue and white if that happens?

Frankie Lim: 500-1
Let's say the NCAA ManCom suspends him for a year and San Beda decides for continuity purposes to get a new head coach. Well, what nice timing because Norman Black leaves after a year! Lim can certainly keep the Blue Eagles' talent pipeline brimming, and he's a proven winner at the collegiate level. Sure Red Lions fans will be calling foul, but the look on the Semerads' faces is going to be priceless as they try to transfer once again.

Erik Spoelstra: 1,000,000-1
Imagine this: the Heat get the number one seed in the East, and face off against the New York Knicks in round one of the playoffs. Linsanity breaks out and the Heat get ousted in five games. Pat Riley makes the hard decision to let Spoelstra go and takes over the team, leaving Spoelstra out in the cold. Doesn't MVP call him up immediately and ask him to fly over to Manila? Plus, the kicker: Spoelstra's high school was a Jesuit high school, and Ateneo is run by Jesuits, great fit!

Other Random Names: Kirk Long (has said in an interview that he wants to coach, but he probably didn't mean this quickly after graduating college), Joe Lipa (age might be a factor), Ronnie Magsanoc (MVP guy, but seems more likely to be an option for San Beda), Lawrence Chongson (purely for the lolz), Larry Brown (has said he will coach anything, even a high school team, but Ateneo might be a stretch)

Coach Speak - Norman Black II

This interview was supposed to run in the latest issue of Rebound magazine, but got cut due to lack of space. 

A few hours before Game 1 of the S74 UAAP Finals, I was lucky enough to get to chat with Ateneo head Coach Norman Black. Our conversation lasted about thirty minutes, much more than the five minutes I asked for, but questions beget more questions and Coach Norman is always very gracious. This isn't the entire transcript as I left out some more FEU-specific queries and some SINAG stuff as well.

+++

AD: What aspect of coaching is your favorite? The way you and your staff make adjustments at halftime, it seems to me that you excel at the “chess match” aspect of the game.

NB: I think more than the chess aspect, it’s just being prepared, planning to anticipate. First of all, scouting them [the other teams] and finding out what they’re trying to do and what they’re trying to accomplish, and what plays they’re running offensively and defensively, and making sure your players are prepared for that. Outside of that, there’s also the anticipation of what they might to, what they might come up with.

AD: That came up when you played FEU in the second round right, when you realized that they had gone back to the triangle offense used last season under Glenn Capacio right?

NB: We watched the first game and they used a little bit of the triangle in the first game, but they really used it extensively in the second game. That surprised us a bit, but they’ve been using the triangle since that game pretty consistently, so the only thing for them to do is go back to their old plays again, their flex offense, or come up with new plays.

AD: Coming into the Ateneo job, did you expect to love coaching collegiate ball so much?

NB: I enjoy coaching, period. I could be coaching in grade school and I’d be very, very happy. I could be back in the pros and I’d be very, very happy. I just enjoy coaching. I enjoy mostly taking players, recruiting them, molding them and watching them grow and get better, and as they get better, the team gets better. If you have a team and you don’t improve over the course of the conference, the year, and in the case of some of these guys, over the course of five years, then that’s a bit of a disappointment. Maybe you didn’t get the best out of them and they underachieved. To see them continually get better and improve their game, that’s what coaching is all about because coaching is basically just teaching.

AD: So you could see yourself doing this forever?

NB: Yeah, I’m a coach for life.

AD: Could you see yourself being coach for life at Ateneo?

NB: I have no idea. You know what they say about coaching, you’re hired to be fired. I know I’ll be coaching. Hopefully it’ll be in Ateneo, but if not, I’ll be coaching somewhere.

AD: Could you talk about your graduating veterans a bit?

NB: They’ve been leading the team very well. Everyone understands that since it’s their last year, their last two games, so a lot of our motivation is those three guys.

AD: Is it difficult to see veterans graduate?

NB: You remember when you recruited them, and how time flies. Last year, I couldn’t believe that Eric Salamat was graduating, because it seems like I just recruited him from San Sebastian, [and] all of a sudden, he’s graduating. Same thing with Kirk Long, Bacon Austria and Emman Monfort. You hate to see them go, but you know there are other guys that you’ve also recruited.

You know, the difference between the system of Ateneo and the system of other teams is most of the players that come to Ateneo know they may not become a star immediately. That’s why some of them don’t come to Ateneo. They know they may not become a star immediately. We normally have to recruit guys who are good players, but are willing to wait one, two years for the seniors and the juniors to graduate before their star can start to shine. The disadvantage is they don’t become Rookie of the Year or star players immediately. The advantage is they are on a winning team. They learn a winning tradition and what it takes to become a winner, and how hard you have to work to make it happen. By the time it’s their turn, in their second, third, fourth year, they’re ready to play.

Everyone keeps asking me how come your players don’t play as much as say, some other star players of other teams. Obviously, with winning 13 out of the 14 games, if I was letting my starters play 35 minutes a game, we’d probably have everyone on the Mythical Five team. But we’re all about winning and luckily for me, I’ve been able to convince my players of that, to put winning as a team ahead of individual accomplishments.

Rebound 2011-12 Championship issue

The latest issue of Rebound magazine is in stores now! It's got some really great articles in there, including of course, features on the two championship teams, and some of the Final Four contenders. Some standouts include Chris Soler getting to interview new DLSU head coach Gee Abanilla, and Sid Ventura following the Sinag squad in Jakarta.

On my part, I got to pen the Ateneo four-peat article, which was a huge honor. And as you can expect, it's a pretty damn long article, so I hope y'all enjoy that.

Another fun thing that we did was we drafted fantasy-NBA style all the players in the UAAP and NCAA and formed teams. Then we got San Beda assistant Jude Roque and Ateneo assistant Sandy Arespacochaga to critique our squads.

All that and tons more for just P140 so get out there and snap that baby up!

The Jeron Teng mailbag

Going off some received tweets about the news that Jeron Teng will commit to DLSU...

Here's what we know about Jeron Teng: he scores most of his points as a slasher, but he's going to score at a lower percentage because of the speed and height of his UAAP defenders. His rebounding is questionable, because of the lack of height in the Tiong Lian (6'3" centers ahoy!) and because he'll be a collegiate shooting guard instead of a high school forward. As the primary scoring option in Xavier School, he doesn't pass a whole lot, but let's assume he will with DLSU as he can't overpower double teams anymore. Xavier plays an up-tempo style with a big focus on the transition game so maybe he manages a steal every now and then, though he himself with turn the ball over a lot as he gets used to the faster pace of the college game and the general increase in athleticism. I'm also projecting him to play around 20 minutes per game because DLSU would want to showcase their blue chip recruit. That makes me think he'll resemble something like the following two players. See if you can guess who they are.

Player 1: 20 minutes, 9.73 points on 34.58 percent shooting, 4.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.8 turnovers.

Player 2: 20.43 minutes, 9.43 points on 36.71 percent shooting, 3.9 rebounds, 0.93 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.71 turnovers

So who are the above two players?

Player 1 happens to be Jarelan Tampus, with his per-minute averages expanded to 20 minutes instead of the 15 minutes he averaged in Season 74.

Player 2 happens to be Joshua Webb, circa Season 72.

That's right, I have Jeron Teng looking like two of his own teammates. Admittedly, he'd be ahead of the curve if he can average that in his rookie year (versus Tampus' and Webb's sophomore year stats) but if you're La Salle, you're wishing he can provide more than that, especially since the hope is that he can be a future go-to guy.

(You're also hoping he can eventually expand his range to hit three-pointers more reliably. Tampus was 0/1 in Season 74 and 0/0 as a rookie, Webb is 7/48 for his career)

DLSU has Simon Atkins and Maui Villanueva graduating, leaving the rest of their roster intact. Here's how it looks right now:

PG: LA Revilla / Almond Vosotros / Dan Sara
SG: Luigi Dela Paz / Jarelan Tampus
SF: Joshua Webb / Joseph Marata

Assuming everyone comes back, that's a pretty crowded line-up, and we're not even factoring in Mark Tallo (PG), or possible recruits like Alex Torres and Gab Reyes from DLSZ (both SG/SF).

Let's say Revilla decides not to come back due to his health, while Marata and Sara get dropped to Team B.

PG: Mark Tallo / Almond Vosotros
SG: Jeron Teng / Luigi Dela Paz / Jarelan Tampus
SF: Joshua Webb / Gab Reyes / Alex Torres

That's a ton of guys who need the ball in their hands to be effective, with Tallo and Vosotros not being traditional point guards to boot. In fact, you could make the argument that everyone in that line-up is a scorer! And to further complicate things, we're not even factoring in the amount of touches the big men will need too. It goes without saying that head coach Gee Abanilla will definitely need to work on ball sharing in the off-season. If La Salle's offense devolves into a series of iso-sets, I doubt they'll be able to make the Final Four.

For argument's sake, let's look at the NU and ADMU line-ups, which were the other two schools that were going hard after Jeron.

NU
PG: Jelo Alolino / Cedrick Labing-isa / JJ Alejandro (rookie)
SG: Ajeet Singh / Robin Rono / Reden Celda
SF: Bobby Ray Parks / Jeoffrey Javillonar

ADMU
PG: Juami Tiongson / Nico Elorde (transferee)
SG: Kiefer Ravena / Tonino Gonzaga / Von Pessumal / Jomar Adonardo (Team B)
SF: Ryan Buenafe (one-year leave) / Oping Sumalinog / Gwynne Capacio

Both teams are pretty stacked as well, plus you have guys like Parks and Ravena who will dominate the ball much more over the others, but you can at least say that some of the other guys are role players (defenders like Singh and Gonzaga, traditional point guards like Alolino and Elorde) who won't demand the ball, or will look to pass first before anything else.

PCCL 2011 Final Four Schedule

With the University of Cebu Webmasters defeating the South Western University Cobras 63-58, and the San Sebastian Stags coming back against the Colegio de San Juan de Letran Knights 83-76, the Final Four cast of the 2011 PCCL is set. ADMU is the UAAP champ, SBC is the NCAA champ, UC is the Visayas/Mindanao champ, and SSC-R is the Luzon/Metro Manila champ.

That gives us the following schedule, with all games to be held at the Arena in San Juan, broadcast live on Studio 23:

Monday 2pm - UC Webmasters vs ADMU Blue Eagles
Monday 4pm - SSCR Golden Stags vs SBC Red Lions

Tuesday 2pm - ADMU Blue Eagles vs SSCR Golden Stags
Tuesday 4pm - SBC Red Lions vs UC Webmasters

Thursday 2pm - FEU Baby Tams vs LSGH Greenies
Thursday 4pm - UC Webmasters vs SSCR Golden Stags

Friday 2pm - NU Bullpups vs SB Red Cubs
Friday 4pm - ADMU Blue Eagles vs SBC Red Lions


The team at the end of the round-robin phase with the highest record gets twice to beat in the Finals versus the team with the next highest record. 

The Indon camera crew for the SINAG games started out horrible (Phil. versus Cambodia was a mess) but has gradually improved to "passable." One horrendous lapse though was showing a highlight while this play was going on in yesterday's match between the Philippines and Thailand:





Unfortunately, Ravena was whistled for a travel on the play, thus the reaction from the coaching staff in the bottom part of your screen.

In case you forgot, he's about 5'10"

Semerads Transfer to Ateneo

File this one under the category: "News that comes out of nowhere." 

Anthony and David Semerad, Fil-Australian twins who played key roles down the stretch of San Beda's recent back to back championship season, have reportedly traded in their Red Lion unis for the blue and white of Ateneo de Manila. 

According to a source close to the Red Lions, the duo left earlier this week and will sit out the remainder of the second academic semester to enroll at Ateneo in March, starting with the summer sem of 2012. 

News of the twins' move took the San Beda coaching staff by surprise, adds the source. 

Anthony Semerad was in and out of the line-up this season, but came on strong towards the tailend. His most memorable game of the season came against San Sebastian in the second round, when he exploded for 10 points in six minutes against the zone of the Golden Stags. Overall, he averaged 6.4 points in 15.7 minutes, while shooting a team-best 39 percent from outside the arc.

David Semerad was San Beda's third-string center, providing additional toughness behind Kyle Pascual and Dave Marcelo, but he strutted his stuff on the largest stage possible: the second game of the NCAA Finals this year, with San Beda already having won the first match. In a defensive grinder of a fourth quarter, David scored seven of his team's nine points, finishing with 15 markers, three rebounds, an assist, a steal and a block in 22 minutes. 

In addition to the Semerads, San Beda will lose Dave Marcelo, Garvo Lanete, Mar Villahermosa and Sudan Daniel to either graduation or eligibility. They do however, have a stacked Team B, that features names like Ivan Ludovice (transfer from NU), Art Dela Cruz Jr. (transfer from ADMU), Jaypee Mendoza (former Team A), Fil-Am Julius Armon, and Nigerian Ola Adeogun, plus a champion San Beda Red Cubs team that graduates all but four players. 

One hold-up to the integration of the Semerads to the Blue Eagles is how long the two will have to sit out and serve their residency. 

Normally, a transfer from a non-UAAP team to a UAAP team will have to sit out a year. That means they become eligible in 2013 or Season 76, when the likes of Nico Salva, Justin Chua, Tonino Gonzaga, and Greg Slaughter and Oping Sumalinog, should they return for their last year of eligibility. Having played two seasons in the NCAA, they can play a maximum of three more years before they turn 26. 

The problem though is the fact that the two Semerads played in the inaugural conference of the PBA-Developmental League for the Maynilad team. In the NCAA, this was not a problem because players are allowed to play for a minor league after just one season. The UAAP however requires one to have played at least two seasons before becoming eligible for minor leagues. It thus becomes very possible that the UAAP board might enforce a penalty on the two, such as sitting out an additional year. 

Point Forward: Season 74's Best Point Guard is...

The difference between Steve Nash and Russell Westbrook is a subtle one, when talking about point guards. The former will look to pass first, and if all passing lanes are closed, will then try to take the best shot possible. The latter on the other hand, will try to take the best shot possible, and if he's held in check by the defense, will then look to get the ball into the hands of an open teammate.

In the UAAP, you get more Russell Westbrook's than Steve Nash's, most of the time, out of necessity, not design.

It's easy to be Steve Nash when you have a ton of weapons around you, an Amare Stoudemire to dunk the ball, Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson on the wings, a do-it-all player like Shawn Marion to fill in the gaps. Russell Westbrook has to be Russell Westbrook because aside from him and Kevin Durant, who's a reliable option? Thabo Sefalosha? Kendrick Perkins? Serge Ibaka? Those are good defensive options, but on offense, you're basically playing 2 vs 5.

The same thing applies to the UAAP. The reason why there are a ton of scoring point guards ("points" guards in local slang) is because it's hard to assemble a five-man unit where everyone is a threat to score, be it through the design of a coach (needs defense on the floor) or because recruitment has gotten so much better (the "great" players have been scattered across the league).

This is a long-winded way for me to say that the numbers have Emman Monfort as the best overall point guard from Season 74 of the UAAP. The keyword there is "overall."

A look at the basic stats makes it easy to see why some fans have guys like Jeric Fortuna or RR Garcia (aside: you do know that he's played shooting guard for the majority of this season right?) at the top of their point guard rankings. The thing that immediately jumps out is the disparity in points, with most of them averaging at least 10 per game. They're also better pure three-point shooters and come up with about the same number of rebounds and steals, though at the expense of more turnovers. Monfort's advantages however are first, he dishes out more assists, and by a wide margin over the next closest player (LA Revilla). He's also far better at shooting free throws than the rest of the guys on that list. Finally, he's tied for most steals along with two other point guards.

On the surface, the Nash-Westbrook comparisons ring true. Monfort doesn't need to shoot a whole lot, not when he has so many excellent finishers on his squad (Greg Slaughter, Kiefer Ravena, Nico Salva). When he does shoot, he's not very good at it (this is deceiving however, and we'll get to that later on), though he can kill you from the line. On the other hand, guys like Fortuna and Lester Alvarez shoulder a lot more of their team's offense, and thus, put more points on the board at the expense of passing off (or not passing off, as it is) to players who aren't great finishers (think: Fortuna jumper or pass to Paolo Pe? Alvarez jumper or pass to Jan Colina?). At this level, it's like comparing apples to oranges.



How pass-first is Monfort? A whole lot, according to advance statistics.

• The first number, AST% or Assist Percentage, is a close estimate of "the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor" and can be solved for with the formula: 100 * AST  / (((MIN / (Team MIN / 5)) * Team FG) - FG). 
• The second number, A:FG or Assist to Field Goal Ratio, is pretty self-explanatory
• The third number,  USG% or Usage Percentage, "is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor" or in other words, the percentage of times a player is the one attempting a shot or turning the ball over. It can be solved for with the formula: 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TO) * (Team MIN / 5)) / (MIN * (Team FGA + 0.44 * Team FTA + Team TO)) 
• The fourth number, A:T or Assist to Turnover Ratio, is pretty self-explanatory as well

What those numbers mean is Monfort is much more likely to assist than shoot (31.81 AST%, 0.76 AST:FG ratio, 15.28 USG%), and he does so at the most efficient rate (2.87 AST:TO ratio). That supports our earlier belief that Monfort is an excellent pass-first point guard. But what about when it comes to scoring?

More interesting is the latter two stats.

• EFG% or effective field goal percentage "adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal" with the formula (FG + 0.5 * 3PM) / FGA.
• TS% or true shooting percentage does EFG% one better by incorporating free throw percentage, with the formula PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA))

With these two in play, we see that only Jelo Montecastro (who doesn't take three-pointers) and LA Revilla have higher EFG% than Monfort (His teammate, Kirk Long, has a higher EFG% as well). And when you factor in free throw shooting in TS%, Monfort jumps way ahead of the pack, three percentage points better than Revilla, the next-best on another team.

What that means is that Monfort truly looks to set up his teammates first and foremost before anything else. However, in the 15.28% of possessions in which he looks to score or make a play, he does so at a better percentage than just about any other comparable point guard. While his individual components (2P% and 3P%) are nothing to get excited about, it is the combination of the two stats, plus FT% for TS%, that make him a better overall shooter, be it from the field or at the line. It is for that reason that I have to conclude that he is the best "overall" point guard this past season.

The journey of Monfort is an interesting one, going from instant offense off the bench to floor general in his final playing year. We often talk about how Ateneo head coach Norman Black is perhaps the best big man coach currently in the UAAP, but he's certainly making a case for transforming score-first players into pass-first guys as well, as seen in the improvement of the likes of Jai Reyes, Eric Salamat, and now Emman Monfort.

With Monfort's graduation, the trend may continue, with shoot-first guard Juami Tiongson presumably assuming the starting point guard position in Season 75. If Black works his magic on him as well, then it's safe to say that this is no fluke and the player development out of Katipunan is simply astounding, whether you're a guard or a big man.

All of this is not to say that guys like Fortuna, Alvarez and Garcia are bad players. However, if we are to go by the strictest definition of what a point guard is, the numbers have Monfort as being the cream of the crop.



Further Reading:

• Glossary of advanced statistics on Basketball-Reference.com
• NBA writer Charley Rosen on the role of a point guard on a team. Download link to a PDF file because the original URL has been archived. 

PCCL 2011 - Metro Manila Knockout Games Primer

November 8:

2pm: NAASCU Champion University of Manila Hawks versus ISAA Champion Technological Institute of the Philippines Engineers

UM Hawks	TIP Engineers
#4 Rivera, Andrew	#18 Acebo, Leonard Ray
#5 Torres, Eugene	#11 Banez, Jaime Jr.
#6 Bonleon, Alvin Andrew	#9 Dela Punta, Darwin
#7 Ruiz, Clemente	#5 Espanola, Ramon Angelo
#8 Garcia, Jose Luis	#12 Gonzales, Runel
#9 Flores, Amante	#16 Martinez, Vergel
#10 Ancheta, Jerry	#6 Medina, Kimley
#11 Viernes, Jeff Alvin	#15 Morillo, Jefferson
#12 Manuel, Jay-Ar	#17 Namocatcat, Jemuel
#14 Gonzales, Jayson	#13 Osicos, Khenn
#15 Guti-Ay, Salvador	#5 Paulo, Sean Francis
#16 Eneria, Michael	#14 Perez, Paulo
#17 Ibay, Jayson	#7 Uy, Alistine
#18 Castro, Sherwin	#4 Viernes, Mark Jesus
#19 Serrano, Jerald
Head Coach: Ferdinand Castillo	Head Coach: Bong Arroyo

4pm: NCAA Fifth Placer Lyceum of the Philippines University Pirates versus UAAP Fifth Placer National University Bulldogs

LPU Pirates	NU Bulldogs
#14 Anacta, Aaron	#4 Alolino, Gelo
#4 Azores, Arwin	#13 Celda, Reden
#9 Cayabyab, Chris	#8 Celiz, Robby
#6 Francisco, Mark	#12 Eman, Spencer
#12 Guevarra, Floricel	#7 Ignacio, Jul-Ashri
#17 Ko, Shane	#5 Javillonar, Jeoffrey
#7 Lacap, Jan	#17 Khobuntin, Glenn
#13 Laude, Vence	#11 Labing-isa, Cedrick
#10 Lesmoras, Tirso	#10 Magat, Marion
#11 Mallari, Gian	#14 Mbe, Emmanuel
#18 Napiza, Onofre	#16 Neypes, Kyle
#5 Ong, Jerome	#15 Parks, Bobby Ray
#16 Pascual, Faustine	#19 Rono, Robin
	#9 Singh, Ajeet
	#6 Terso, Joseph
	#18 Villamor, Denice
Head Coach: Bonnie Tan	Head Coach: Eric Altamirano

November 9:

2pm: MNCAA Champion Centro Escolar University Scorpions versus UCLAAI Champion St. Francis of Assisi Doves

CEU Scorpions	St. Francis of Assisi Doves
Magbitang, John Paul	#4 Guevarra, Ronoel
Paralo, Mark Jerwin	#5 Castro, Lawrence Paolo
Chua, Kim Dernard	#6 Santiago, Paul Jordan
Akpa, Thankgod	#7 Paday, Joeseph
Gallardo, Ryan	#8 Parcero, Lance Kervin
Garcia, Axl Jeff	#10 Melano, Jayson
Navarro, Jan Sebastian	#11 Castanos, Jonathan
Anain, Aldreen Lorenz	#14 Soriano, Jorel
Tuazon, Lester John	#15 Martin, Francis
Babad, Leymund	#17 Rote, Denver
Lobaton, Leeward	#19 Milo, Joseph
Bernardo, John Andrew	#20 Pranillos, Seron
Banua, Carmelito	#21 Monzon, Ephraim
	#22 Sabad, John Paul
Head Coach: Mon Jose	Head Coach: Gabby Velasco

4pm: UAAP Sixth Placer De La Salle University Green Archers versus NCAA Sixth Placer Mapua Institute of Technology Cardinals

DLSU Green Archers	MIT Cardinals
#6 Torres, Norbert	#7 Abad, Michael
#7 Van Opstal, Arnold	#8 Banal, Jonathan
#8 Mendoza, Jovet	#9 Nimes, Josan
#9 Sara, Roldan	#10 Stevens, Andretti
#10 Webb, Joshua	#11 Taha, Yousef
#11 Reyes, Martin	#12 Magsigay, Darel
#12 Revilla, LA	#15 Parala, Mike
#15 Gotladera, Ponso	#16 Chien, Jumiel
#16 Marata, Joseph	#17 Ighalo, Kenneth
#17 Vosotros, Almond	#18 Cantos, Jeson
#18 Paredes, Papot
#21 Dela Paz, Luigi
#22 Tampus, Jarelan
Head Coach: Tyrone Bautista	Head Coach: Chito Victolero

The winners of each game will play the other same day winner on November 10 with the November 8 teams facing off at 2pm, and the November 9 squads at 4pm. The winners there will move on to Sweet 16 spots in the Luzon-Metro Manila bracket.

16th PSC-Unigames Basketball Championship

Without their starting five of Greg Slaughter, Kirk Long, Emman Monfort, Kiefer Ravena and Nico Salva, plus reserves Bacon Austria and Oping Sumalinog, a Team-B reinforced Ateneo Blue Eagles team reclaimed the Unigames title, beating the West Negros University Mustangs 76-62 in the Finals.

Should Greg Slaughter decide not to return to play out his final year of eligibility, the strong play of Justin Chua and JP Erram in this tournament are encouraging signs coming out of the five spot. Similarly, Juami Tiongson continued to show that he's capable of taking on the lead point guard role that Monfort will vacate.

Unlike last season, when NU claimed the Unigames crown, no other UAAP team played in the basketball tourney this year.

UAAP Season 74 Men's Basketball Finals in Photos

Diana Moraleda is one of the super-talented photographers we have on Inboundpass.com and she made a video collage of some of the snaps she took of the UAAP Finals. Definitely worth watching.

UAAP Season 74 Men's Basketball Finals in Photos from diana moraleda on Vimeo.

UAAP S74 Finals Preview: ADMU vs FEU

Credit to original artist, image found on Tumblr

History Lesson:
- Round 1: ADMU 69 - FEU 49
Freethrow attempts: ADMU 28 - FEU 9
Key player: Greg Slaughter, 15 points, 11 rebounds, one block

- Round 2: ADMU 74 - UST 67 (OT)
Overtime scoring: ADMU 11 - FEU 4
Key player: Kiefer Ravena, 15 points, five rebounds, four assists

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Offense
When it comes to putting the ball into the basket, Ateneo is the better team in that regard, scoring five points better on average than FEU, 71 to 66.31. You can attribute that to a lot of things like a higher field goal percentage, but it's mainly due to the aggressive, up-tempo style of play the Eagles espouse. They average five more possessions, about 76 per game, than FEU's 71, getting five more fast break attempts than the Tamaraws, which leads to more transition baskets. Ateneo specializes in getting to the rim, and as a result, the defending champs have a huge advantage over FEU when it comes to free throws, 25 to 15.88.

That's not to say that FEU is a horrible offensive team though. They're certainly a better three-point shooting team, making more triples and at a better rate than the Eagles, who struggle at times to score from downtown. The slower pace of FEU makes them less susceptible to turnovers, though Terrence Romeo may have something to say about that, and despite injuries to their frontline, they score about three more second-chance points per game than Ateneo.

Ultimately, shooting may very well decide this battle. FEU gets about 25.5 of their 66 points per game from the perimeter, and a bad shooting night could ruin them, especially if the Eagles convert long rebounds into fast breaks. Conversely, Ateneo has seen some poor perimeter shooting games as well, especially from downtown, but they have a knack for making them when they really need to, see Kirk Long's two daggers in the first round match-up between these two teams, for example.

EDGE: ADMU 

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Defense
Tough luck FEU, not only is Ateneo better at scoring, they're also better defending, giving up 59.07 points on average, while Far Eastern concedes 65.56 a game. In fact, nearly every defensive statistic favors the Katipunan-based squad, from three-point percentage allowed, field goal percentage allowed, free throws allowed, points in the paint, and perimeter scoring. In fact, the only category where the Tamaraws have an advantage is turnover points given up, where they norm about a point less than their opponents.

Injuries once again are the reason behind this big difference. Without a true small forward, FEU often goes with a three-guard line-up, good for offense, but a liability against certain teams on defense. Similarly, with just two legit big men in Aldrech Ramos and Russel Escoto, the Tamaraws can encounter problems defending the paint, especially against taller teams, not even putting foul trouble into the equation.

EDGE: ADMU

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Marquee Players
Despite an explosive performance from Cris Tolomia in the do or die game versus Adamson University, FEU will live or die based on how well the triumvirate of Aldrech Ramos, RR Garcia and Terrence Romeo perform, and based on past results, things don't bode well for them.

We mentioned above how the Ateneo defense is dominant, and in their two meetings this season, its impact can be clearly seen. Putting together the shooting performances of the two games, Ramos was 5 of 19, Garcia was 14 of 42, and Romeo was 8 of 31. Ateneo's defenders, Kirk Long and Emman Monfort, back-stopped by Tonino Gonzaga and Bacon Austria, simply give the FEU backcourt fits, while Ramos struggles when matched-up against Greg Slaughter, though Nico Salva guards him as well for certain stretches. Ramos' one big advantage is precisely the reason why Salva is often placed on him, an ability to step out beyond the three-point arc and nail some treys. This however, is tempered by the fact that if he misses (he's 7 for 24 for the season), the Eagles get an easy rebound and a chance to run it back at FEU.

Ateneo has some pretty good scorers of their own, with Salva, Slaughter and rookie of the year Kiefer Ravena handling the bulk of the offense when pitted against the Tamaraws. The lack of big men on FEU forces them to double Slaughter, giving Salva the spacing to shoot open mid-range jumpers. Ravena in transition is a monster finisher, and came up clutch against this squad in the second round, forcing overtime on two strong drives to the rim.

EDGE: ADMU

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Supporting Cast
Despite a shaky start to the season, Ateneo's bench has been able to settle down and develop into an excellent complementary unit to what the starters bring to the table. The reserves are led by Tonino Gonzaga, who brings hustle, defense, and the team's best outside shooting to the table, but also worth keeping an eye on is Justin Chua, who scored nine critical points over the third and fourth quarters in round two to keep Ateneo in the game. Should the FEU big men try their hand at hitting jump shots, you can expect Frank Golla and possibly Oping Sumalinog to see some time, as the more mobile big men defenders. Head coach Norman Black may even spring JP Erram again on the Tamaraws, after his shutdown defensive performance in game one of the Finals last season.

The lack of manpower hinders FEU's supporting cast somewhat, but they still have a few names that might tilt the game in their direction. Chris Exciminiano will draw the assignment of covering Ravena, but he played just 14 minutes in the two regular season meetings and was not really able to provide much in the way of scoring, More worrisome might be the chance that Cris Tolomia explodes again, after scoring a career-high 19 versus Adamson. RP Youth Under-18 teammate Kiefer Ravena will likely be the one assigned to make sure that doesn't happen again.  Russel Escoto and Roger Pogoy will provide some additional rebounding as well as the occasional points. The big x-factor for FEU will be the play of Carl Bryan Cruz, who dropped 10 points in round two. Can he accomplish that feat again?

The big concern about the FEU reserves is one of consistency, Yes they've all produced big games in the past, but can they do it again under the scrutiny of the Finals? Ateneo's reserves are more consistent and more importantly, have been here before, something half the FEU names mentioned above cannot say they've done.

EDGE: ADMU 

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Intangibles
While Ateneo head coach Norman Black is of the opinion that UST is the most physical team in the league, FEU has been giving them a run for their money on their road to the Finals, as guys like Pogoy, Cruz, and team captain Jens Knuttel have gotten into it recently with opposing players. Rattling Ateneo is not out of the question for this squad, the problem will be doing it with some of the Tams already nursing unsportsmanlike fouls. Should they get caught, that means a one-game suspension, which would be crippling in this series.

Another trick up FEU's sleeves is the possibility of Pipo Noundou or JR Cawaling jumping back into the fray, firing up their side of the Araneta Coliseum with a Willis Reed-esque moment. Head coach Bert Flores has been planting that seed of doubt in the heads of opponents in a "Will he? Or won't he?" type psych-war. After all, regardless of whether or not he actually fields them in, opposing head coaches still need to prepare for even the mere possibility that they see the floor.

The biggest thing Ateneo has going for them is their championship experience, having won three straight titles. It's not that big a deal if you compare it to playing a team that's getting to the postseason for the first time, like had they drawn Adamson, but as team captain Kirk Long said last year, "(The UAAP Finals) is sort of our home ground." That's the sort of winning attitude the Eagles will come to the table with, especially knowing that they took FEU's best punch in that overtime win, and still managed to rally for the victory.

EDGE: Slight advantage to FEU


Prediction
More than getting an elimination round sweep, repeating for the fourth straight year has always been the main goal of Ateneo, and it's hard to imagine them faltering this close to the end. The Eagles simply have more weapons in this match-up, are a better defensive squad, and have the advantage of having beaten FEU twice, once in a blowout and then by a small margin. That is not to say that FEU will not go down fighting, in fact, I do not expect a blowout win like what we saw a season ago, but the Tamaraws need a lot of things to go right for them, starting with some ridiculously good shooting. Simply put, this is Ateneo's to win, and win they shall.

ADMU Blue Eagles win in two games, accomplishes the four-peat.

The Battles: ADU vs FEU S74 Final Four

The Marquee Names Battle

• ADU's Lester Alvarez and Alex Nuyles versus FEU's RR Garcia and Terrence Romeo

This is a hard match-up to wrap your head around. In the first game, Alex Nuyles (20 points, six rebounds, two assists) was overpowered by the one-two punch of RR Garcia (16 points, eight rebounds) and Terrence Romeo (19 points, four rebounds, two assists). In the second game, Nuyles forced the issue too much (12 points on 3 of 13 shooting), Garcia was limited (11 points in 31 minutes) due to foul trouble, and Romeo (15 points, four turnovers, three in the fourth quarter) nearly handed Adamson the win. Lester Alvarez? He just basically stunk the entire series, totaling 14 points on 5 of 19 shooting, 2 of 11 from downtown, though six of his eight assists came in the do or die game.

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There are extenuating circumstances though. Nuyles was not 100 percent due to an ankle sprain he suffered at the end of the first game. Head coach Leo Austria decided to play it safe, bringing him off the bench, but ultimately, he still played 30 minutes, the most of anyone on the team, but he didn't have the same lift, best seen when his fastbreak layup hit the bottom part of the backboard in the fourth quarter. Romeo's poor decision making has been an aspect of his game that FEU has had to live with all throughout this season, and the fact that he had gone several games without a crippling error meant that the Tams were really just living on borrowed time. Garcia was the victim of the referees "calling it tightly." And if you're surprised that Alvarez kept throwing up shot after shot, then you haven't been watching his game this entire season (he's 44/154 the entire season, or 28.57 percent shooting overall).

Ultimately, the thinking is that after explosive performances in the first game, both sides endeavored to shut the other side's superstars in the second match, leaving it up to the supporting casts to carry the game.

The "Other Guys" Battle

• FEU's Cris Tolomia versus ADU's Jerick Canada

Both these guys came off the bench and out of nowhere, turning in some heroic performances to try to get their squad into the finals.

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Jerick Canada used to be "the name" on Adamson, a long time ago, before Alvarez came on and basically stole his thunder. Credit to head coach Leo Austria, there was never a point guard controversy on this squad, with Canada graciously accepting the reserve role, sprinkled in with occasional starting stints. In yesterday's game, scored 10 of his squad's 14 points in the final period, including hitting back to back triples, and also made all four of his swipes in that quarter. Just to point out how out of nowhere his game was, prior to this match, Canada had never scored in double-digits, never hit more than one triple in a game, and never made more than one steal in a game.

Cris Tolomia on the other hand, found himself in a difficult position in his rookie year. After sitting out two seasons due to RP Youth U-18 commitments, Tolomia got onto the FEU Team A and discovered that Garcia and Romeo would be getting the majority of touches and minutes at the guard spot. No matter, Tolomia adapted well to the small forward spot, a necessity, given how often head coach Bert Flores is forced to go with three guards since JR Cawaling's injury. But Tolomia is a better defender than the other two, and may possibly be more clutch, as seen in his game-winner versus UST in Round One. But since their loss to UP in round one, Tolomia had not scored in double-digits, and was actually 0 for 13 in their last two games coming into this encounter. And yet, he played all 10 minutes of the third quarter and scored nine of his 19 in that period.

Unfortunately, only one player could be a winner, and that was Tolomia and his FEU Tams.

The Big Man Battle

• ADU's Austin Manyara, Jan Colina, Eric Camson and Rodney Brondial versus FEU's Carl Bryan Cruz, Aldrech Ramos, Russel Escoto and Mark Bringas

Head coach Bert Flores was not happy in the first quarter. Mark Bringas was chucking up shots, 0/3 in six minutes, forcing him to bench the former San Sebastian Stag for playing out of the team concept. Then he saw Carl Bryan Cruz get into a near-skirmish with Adamson big men Eric Camson and Rodney Brondial. But the outcome of that incident made him smile. With unsportsmanlike fouls being issued on all three players, Cruz was the guy who came out of it fired up, finishing with eight points and four rebounds in 15 minutes. Camson only stepped up in the fourth quarter. Brondial never got going after a strong first game (four points, 10 rebounds, three blocks in 26 minutes, to just two points, four rebounds in 10 minutes).

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It was always going to be about rebounding in this series. In the regular season encounters, which the two teams split, Adamson had dominated the glass, 85-63, 36-20 on the offensive glass. That got flipped on its head in the postseason, with FEU 99 - ADU 72 in total rebounds, 39-28 in offensive rebounds. During the last game, no Falcons hauled down double-digit rebounds. Aldrech Ramos had 12.


8 Things I Think

• I think the best coaching move of the series was Bert Flores going to the three-guard line-up in the third quarter and riding it late into the game. The Falcons simply did not have anyone who could guard Tolomia, and he made them pay for it. 
• It's surprising to me how no one has really mentioned Janus Lozada, or rather, his second half disappearance. Lozada played 15 out of the 20 first half minutes and was leading Adamson in scoring with nine markers. He played just eight minutes in the second half and did not attempt a single shot. Why didn't they go to him more often and ride his hot hand? How come coach Leo Austria didn't try rotating him on the FEU guards instead of matching up by going small with two point guards and Nuyles?
• Austin Manyara was never really able to capitalize on his best UAAP game, a 13-point, 12-rebound performance versus UP, as he had to exit early with an ankle injury. He missed their next assignment and hasn't been as effective since. 
• I don't think Adamson will be able to go back to the Final Four next season. Losing two veteran point guards is a huge blow to this team, especially when they only have Ryan Monteclaro as the other floor general currently on roster, who played a grand total of 16 minutes this season. They're okay at the other spots. Harry Petilos or Allen Etrone can split Lozada's minutes, plus Jericho Cruz, who impressed in this summer's Fil-Oil tournament will be eligible. Up front, Eric Camson will get the start in lieu of Colina, with Brondial splitting time between PF and C. 
• Romeo's crippling errors have all been of the unforced kind, which says something about how easily this kid can get rattled. Matched up with Kirk Long and Kiefer Ravena in the Finals, the Eagles will be better equipped to force and pounce on his errors, than the Falcons could ever be.
• Similarly, FEU is going to have a hard time using that three-guard line-up versus the Eagles. Ateneo's problem was that they couldn't match-up with the bigger Adamson guards. Putting out what is essentially three shooting guards will just delight the defending champions. 

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• Russel Escoto is a beast for playing with a fractured hand - and still coming up with some huge rebounds. 
• FEU's biggest advantage is the possibility that JR Cawaling or Pipo Noundou will pull a Willis Reed and turn a close game around. Just by participating in warm-ups and sitting dressed on the sidelines, the Ateneo coaching staff will be forced to gameplan for these guys, even if it turns out they don't see a single minute of playing time.