UAAP S74: ADU vs UST

History Lesson:
The Adamson blitz came early, as the Falcons burst out to a 16-2 start that saw the Tigers scramble to bite into the deficit for the rest of the game. That got multiple chances, first, getting it to nine points on an and-one play by Kevin Ferrer in the third, and then to eight twice in the same period, but the Falcons responded each time with scoring runs to keep UST at arm's length. With time winding down in the fourth, a banker by Jeric Teng made it nine, keeping the door slightly ajar for a UST comeback, but a triple by Eric Camson ended that notion, allowing Adamson to hold on for the 81-71 win. Janus Lozada led the Falcons with a career-high 21 markers, while UST got 15 from Jeric Teng. (Recap here)


What's at Stake:

• Things are still precarious for the Adamson University Falcons, even at 9-3. With two games left to play, losses may pull them into a tie with FEU, currently at number three. Lose both and not only could FEU overtake you, UST might be able to vault ahead as well.
• At 6-5, the UST Growling Tigers must win two of their last three games to prevent a tie with either DLSU or NU and keep their fourth seed secure.

ADU Stat to Watch : After the shorter UE squad managed to be down by just a rebound after twenty minutes of play, 27 to 26, the Falcons took control of the glass in the second half, 54 to 38. They'll need to be more consistent pulling down loose balls in this game though, as UST is currently on top of the league when it comes to offensive rebounds (19.36 a game) and total rebounds (49.18 a game).
ADU Player to Watch : The Adamson Falcons saved Austin Manyara for this game, so hopefully, he'll have a strong showing. Manyara's always been more of a defensive presence than an offensive threat, but the Kenyan was fired up versus UP, getting his first double-double in the UAAP. If he can neutralize Abdul's presence in the paint, that will already be good enough. Any points he can score will be gravy.

UST Stat to Watch : UST's weakness has been their inability to stop the fastbreak, as they boast the poorest transition offense with teams getting 10.27 attempts for 13.08 points. Luckily for them, the Falcons are the worst fastbreak team in the league, with just 5 attempts for 6 points. Regardless, they ought to be prepared for the Falcons to try running at them, just to see if the Tigers are as shaky as the stats say.
UST Player to Watch : Melo Afuang has had an up and down season for the Tigers, but he had his best game of the season against Adamson, scoring a season-high 14 points on perfect 6 for 6 field goal shooting. We'll see if he can replicate his performance when they play again.

Prediction: Adamson Falcons