Sunday, September 18, 2011

NCAA S87: LPU vs EAC

History Lesson:
A split at the line with a little under two minutes by Vence Laude had the Pirates threatening to pull off another come from behind win, 68-65, but on the next possession, a gambling Allan Santos chose to help double Milan Vargas, and EAC's playmaker issued a pass to a wide-open Jolas Paguia who calmly sank a huge triple, that put the lead out of reach for Lyceum, handing the Generals a 73-67 win. That allowed the Generals to match their Season 86 win total after just three games. (Recap here)

 What's at Stake: 
  • Neither of these two teams are mathematically out of the playoff hunt yet, sticking within striking distance of the 6-7 Mapua Cardinals. But the 5-8 Lyceum Pirates and the 4-9 EAC Generals will need to string together a series of wins, and if they can knock down one of the other teams threatening to get number four, so much the better.

LPU Stat to Watch : After beating JRU in their first assignment of the second round, the Pirates have spiraled downward on a four-game losing streak. Scoring is down big for this squad, going from an average of 75.33 points in the first round to just 70.8 in their past five games. They're simply not converting as well as they used to, dropping from a 39.89 field goal percentage to 34.9 percent. Given that EAC is not exactly known as a defensive club, this could be Pirates' time to break through.  
LPU Player to Watch : Chris Cayabyab has only notched multiple triples in the second round once, a four-trey game versus the Perpetual Help Altas, as opponents have figured out that limiting Cayabyab has a huge impact on this team's offense. The first time they played EAC though, Cayabyab was a horrible 0 for 10 from beyond the arc, so if the Generals can defend him the same way, this could be a long day for the sniper.

EAC Stat to Watch : The Generals have the worst assist to turnover ration in the league, a roughly 4 to 7 clip that has them giving up the most fastbreak attempts in the league (10.08) and the third-most turnover points (16.15). Luckily for them though, the Pirates are almost as bad as they are, surrendering 8.64 fastbreak attempts and are the worst in the league when it comes to allowing opponents to score turnover points, with 19.71 points being given up. If this becomes an up and down sort of game, the Pirates may come out on the losing end.
EAC Player to Watch : With so many players going in and out of EAC's sickbay, Jan Jamon has been the one constant, and as a result, is now tied with Joshua Torralba as the team's best scorer with a 12.8 average. Because we still don't know if Torralba will play or not, Jamon has to be ready to pick up the scoring slack, and build upon an 11-12 performance versus Perpetual Help.


Prediction: EAC Generals

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