Show Me the Paper

Karim Abdul (left) and Alinko Mbah (right) hold the key to their teams' seasons (pic source here and here)

The Philippine Daily Inquirer writes today that aside from ADMU's Greg Slaughter and NU's Bobby Ray Parks, three other players were discussed during last Tuesday's Eligibility Board meeting, and those three were found wanting. Quoth:

"Nigerian Alinko Mbah of the University of the Philippines, Cameroonian Karim Abdul of the University of Santo Tomas and Canadian teammate Jamil Sheriff failed to submit the required documents for foreign players in the recent eligibility meeting."

It stuns me that teams have these players serving residency for two whole years and still show up with incomplete documents. When you talk about UP and UST being improved teams, a big reason why they'll be more competitive this year is because of those two foreign centers. Both teams rely so heavily on three-point shooting that having a big man under the board to rebound and score off put-backs means their offense becomes much more efficient. Both teams also lack real options behind the two foreigners (UP would fall back to Mark Juruena, UST would field Paolo Pe) so the slight chance of either of those two guys failing to become eligible ought to send fans of their respective schools into cold sweats.

Both teams will have until the July 5 board meeting to submit all the missing paperwork.

Round One to Slaughter

Greg Slaughter hopes to bring a four-peat to Ateneo this year (pic source: Inboundpass.com)

Greg Slaughter took another step towards becoming fully eligible to play after a 2-1 vote from the UAAP Eligibility Committee yesterday.

According to sources, out of the five-man committee, representatives from Adamson and Ateneo gave 'yay' votes, while FEU voted 'nay.' DLSU's representative abstained from the voting, while UP's representative chaired the meeting and did not vote.

While many people rejoiced over the news, there is still a remote chance that the former University of Visayas Green Lancer will be brought up again next week, July 5, during the UAAP board meeting.

The Eligibility Committee, by my understanding, goes through the UAAP rulebook to see if a player is eligible. However, a player can still be met with an official protest during the board meeting, though new evidence would have to be brought to the table.

Schools also have until the end of the first round to file complaints regarding eligibility. A recent example of this was when UST lobbied to reinstate gunner Jojo Duncil in 2007 up until the early part of the season (though the move failed).

Worse comes to worse, the matter will be brought to a vote before the board, with Ateneo unable to vote due to the fact that it is one of their players being voted upon.

My instinct is that Slaughter will in fact play this season. Given the Eligibility Board's decision, a decision that takes into account his stint with the Gilas National team, it's hard to imagine what sort of new evidence FEU, or any other protesting school, can come up with. I also don't feel that it is right to go against your own Eligibility Board, because if you go against it, then why not bring up all eligibility issues to the board meetings instead?

That said, it is a given that FEU is fond of these backroom dealings (Soc Rivera rule, anyone?), and thus, Ateneo fans, after encircling June 28 on their calendars, now have to circle another date, July 5, and hope for another round of jubilant tweets.

S74 Schedule V2.0

First posted (as far as I can tell) on ArcherPride, courtesy of a user jdcastro this is the revised schedule put forth by Ateneo after complaints from other schools (the original schedule, circa May, can be found in the comments section of my original post about the schedule).

Comparing this schedule and the "should be" schedule shows that there's still a big difference between the two. I don't know if the schools will continue to protest this, but it looks clear that Ateneo really has no intentions of following the formula for whatever reason. As I said before, my position on this is just go out and play. If your team is title-worthy, they'll go out and be competitive against any opponent placed in front of them.

Hilariously, as pointed out on another forum, DLSU was complaining about having to fight FEU-ADMU-UST-ADU in the original draft of the schedule. The poster correctly pointed out that Ateneo's first four games last season were FEU-ADU-UST-DLSU.

Another thing to point out is the fact that the game times have been made earlier, with all of the first-round match-ups featuring 1pm/3pm start times, as opposed to the 2pm/4pm start times from last season. This I feel, was a concession to get the Araneta Coliseum, what with certain PBA games scheduled there at 7pm.

This was also a much-complained about issue for certain La Sallians, as the original draft of the scheduled had the San Juan Arena as an alternate venue for ADMU-DLSU (as if the UAAP board was ever going to let that one slide). Based on this schedule, all save for six games will be played at Araneta. In contrast, last year's first round had 12 contests in the Philsports Arena, and two at the Arena in San Juan.

The "Should Be" UAAP S74 Schedule

So, as detailed in my previous post, ADMU reportedly sent a proposed schedule to UAAP schools that does not follow the prescribed formula set out in the UAAP rulebook. While we have yet to find out whether or not that proposal will be accepted, or if Ateneo will be made to revert to normal process, we can in the meantime, look at how the schedule would look like under the conventions set out in the rules.

The "imaginary, could-be, should-be" schedule for UAAP S74, under the cut

A Matter of Scheduling: Is Ateneo Looking to Screw La Salle?

Highlights:

• There is a rumor that Ateneo has abandoned the UAAP formula for scheduling games
• La Salle is protesting a tough early schedule, based on the rumor
• While Ateneo should not change the schedule for the heck of it, La Salle ought to play whatever hand is dealt to them.

UAAP S74 Teasers

All of the team teasers for Season 74 of the UAAP, under the cut.

2011 FilOil Semifinals Preview: ADMU vs FEU

ADMU Burning Questions

• Will the two rookies, Greg Slaughter and Kiefer Ravena continue to carry this team?
• Will Kirk Long and Emman Monfort continue to shoot blanks from downtown?
• Who gets the start at power forward, Frank Golla for his defense or Oping Sumalinog to space the floor?
• Will the Eagles continue to concede second-chance opportunities or will they secure those defensive rebounds? 

FEU Burning Questions

• Was the 30-point game from RR Garcia versus DLSU a fluke or a sign of things to come?
• Can the Tamaraws make up for any mental lapses against a veteran team like Ateneo? 
• Will FEU be able to space the floor properly without a standout three point shooter? 
• Will Pipo Noundou put up MVP level stats against the many big men of Ateneo? 

History Lesson: After winning both regular season match-ups versus the Eagles, FEU lost in a sweep in the Season 73 UAAP Finals, giving Ateneo a rare three-peat.

Prediction: Single-possession FEU win

2011 FilOil Semifinals Preview: SBC vs ADU

SBC Burning Questions

• Will Su Daniel suit up for tomorrow's game?
• Will Dave Marcelo suit up for tomorrow's game?
• Will the point guard corps of Baser Amer, Paolo Pontejos and Anjo Caram take care of the ball or will they commit massive amounts of turnovers versus Jerick Canada and Lester Alvarez?
• Will a single shooter get hot (Mar Villahermosa, Garvo Lanete) or will it be a team effort in terms of scoring? 

ADU Burning Questions

• Will we see a good game or a bad game from the mercurial Alex Nuyles?
• Can Austin Manyara and Rodney Brondial keep Ola Adeogun in check? 
• Are the Adamson shooters still going to be hot from beyond the arc?
• Will the Falcons be able to score in transition and off steals?  

History Lesson: A Garvo Lanete, Baser Amer-less San Beda squad defeated the Adamson Falcons 80-72 in the Fr. Martin Collegiate Open Cup last March

Prediction: 6 to 10 point win for San Beda

2011 Filoil Quarterfinals Preview

ADMU vs MIT
- The word for MIT is support. The Cards sometimes rely too much on stars Allan Mangahas and Yousef Taha, but when they win, it's often because they got production from bench guys like Rodel Ranises, Josan Nimes and Jonathan Banal. Given how stacked the Ateneo team is, Mapua's bench will have to match their scoring and intensity.
- The word for ADMU is transition. They only got 6 fastbreak points and 7 turnover points versus DLSU, both tournament-lows. Given how the Cardinals norm 20.5 turnovers and concede on average 18 turnover points, the Blue Eagles should have opportunities.

SBC vs UP
- The word for SBC is size. San Beda is fourth in terms of total rebounds corralled per game, because of guys like Dave Marcelo and Ola Adeogun. Averaging 46.6 boards, 18.4 on the offensive glass, the Red Lions should have the advantage against a UP team that is dead last in terms of rebounding in the tournament.
- The word for UP is perimeter. The Maroons get the bulk of their points from triples by Mike Silungan, Mike Gamboa and Jett Manuel. They're tops in terms of team average from beyond the arc (34.3%) and are second in number of makes per game (7.8). Given how Beda's perimeter defense is a mediocre 10th, letting opponents shoot 28.3%, UP does have a chance.

FEU vs DLSU
- The word for FEU is defense. FEU tops the league in allowed made field goals, letting opponents convert just 23.3 made baskets, while holding them to 37.3%. Factor in an improved zone defense, typically a DLSU kryptonite, and the Tams have a good chance of shutting down the Archers.
- The word for DLSU is rebounding. The Archers are 1-3 when they're outrebounded, 1-3 when the opponents have more offensive rebounds than them. Making things harder for this game is the fact that 6'5" Nobert Torres has been ruled out for 1-2 weeks because of the dislocated elbow he suffered versus Ateneo. That means gang-rebounding will be key against the likes of Aldrech Ramos and Pipo Noundou.

ADU vs SSCR
- The word for ADU is shooting. The Falcons are actually mediocre offensively, hitting just 25.3 field goals a game (12th out of 17), while shooting just 36.6% (13th). Both those numbers are the worst of the eight teams in the quarter-finals. Ideally, they'll get steals (5.4 a game, 7th in the league) and get out in transition (10.6 fastbreak points). The problem? San Sebastian loves to get out in transition even more (16.6 a game).
- The word for SSCR is match-ups. Calvin Abueva and Ian Sangalang present defensive problems for a lot of teams, but more so against the Falcons. Versus Abeuva, we're not sure as to the status of Roider Cabrera and Janus Lozada, meaning Jericho Cruz will probably get the bulk of the coverage, with Alex Nuyles getting spot minutes so as to not tire him out on offense. Against Sangalang, Austin Manyara, Rodney Brondial, and Eric Camson will have their hands full. If any of those guys get into foul trouble, Adamson will be in big trouble.

2011 Filoil Flying V Pre-Season Premier Cup Quarters and Semis Sked

Quarter-finals schedules - Monday, June 6:

11AM - Ateneo (A2) vs Mapua (B3)
2PM - San Beda (A1) vs UP (B4)
4PM - FEU (B1) vs DLSU (A4)
6PM - Adamson (B2) vs San Sebastian (A3)

Semi-finals schedules - Wednesday, June 8:

2PM - Winner (San Beda vs UP) vs Winner (Adamson vs San Sebastian)
4PM - Winner (FEU vs De La Salle) vs Winner (Ateneo vs Mapua)

(Red games will be televised in Studio 23.)

The 2011 Fil-Oil Flying V Pre-season Premier Cup Semifinals Picture

Updated as of June 1, 2011

Group B's top four teams are all set, and so all eyes now turn to the two Group A matches on Saturday, June 4, to see how the semi-finals will shake out. UST vs SBC will take place first at 12:30pm, while ADMU vs DLSU will clash at 4pm, and both games' results will impact the standings. 

SCENARIO 1

• San Beda beats UST: SBC improves to 5-2, UST slumps to 3-4
• Ateneo beats La Salle: ADMU improves to 6-1, DLSU slumps to 3-4

1. ADMU (6-1) 
2. SBC (5-2) - San Beda owns the tiebreaker over SSC-R, having beaten them 97-81
3. SSC-R (5-2)
4. NU (4-3)
5. UST (3-4) - UST owns the tiebreaker over DLSU, having beaten them 79-70
6. DLSU (3-4)

SCENARIO 2

• San Beda beats UST: SBC improves to 5-2, UST slumps to 3-4
• La Salle beats Ateneo: DLSU improves to 4-3, ADMU slumps to 5-2

1. SBC (5-2) - San Beda's quotient is 1.076
2. ADMU (5-2) - Ateneo's quotient is 1.013
3. SSC-R (5-2) - Baste's quotient is 0.911 
4. DLSU (4-3) - La Salle owns the tiebreaker over NU, having beaten them 81-74
5. NU (4-3)
6. UST (3-4)

SCENARIO 3

• UST beats San Beda: UST improves to 4-3, SBC slumps to 4-3
• Ateneo beats La Salle: ADMU improves to 6-1, DLSU slumps to 3-4

1. ADMU (6-1)
2. SSC-R (5-2)
3. NU (4-3) - NU's quotient is 1.083, and barring an extremely large blowout, UST cannot match that
4. UST/SBC (4-3) - depending on the margin of victory 
5. UST/SBC (4-3) - depending on the margin of victory
6. DLSU (3-4) 

• By my Math, UST needs to beat SBC by at least 6 points to get #4

SCENARIO 4

• UST beats San Beda: UST improves to 4-3, SBC slumps to 4-3
• La Salle beats Ateneo: DLSU improves to 4-3, ADMU slumps to 5-2

1. SSC-R (5-2), SSC-R owns the tiebreaker, having beaten ADMU 73-72
2. ADMU (5-2)
3. NU/UST (4-3) 
4. NU/UST (4-3) 
5. SBC/DLSU (4-3) 
6. SBC/DLSU (4-3) 

• NU's quotient is 1.019
• DLSU's quotient is 0.982
• UST and SBC's quotients depend on the margin of victory

NOTES

• There are two scenarios (1 and 3) in which Ateneo gets #1
• There is one scenario (4) in which SSC-R gets #1
• UST is in a precarious situation, needing to blow out San Beda to increase their chances of making it into the top 4 (scenarios 3 and 4)
• DLSU's only shot of making the Final Four is scenario two, also the only scenario where SBC becomes number one. 
• Winning ensures SBC is in the top four (scenarios 1 and 2). Otherwise, they have an outside shot at sneaking in, even if they lose to UST, in scenario 3.

FilOil 060111

SBC RED LIONS vs. SSCR GOLDEN STAGS

• What's at stake: SSCR has the chance to clinch the number one spot in Group A. SBC needs this win to improve their chances of making the semis.
• Key SBC stat: The Red Lions average 21.2 turnover points, thanks in part to an average of 8.2 steals. 
• Key SSCR stat: The Golden Stags hold opponents to single-digit fast break points (7.8) and second chance points (8). 
• Beda and Baste are number one and number two, respectively, in terms of points scored per game. Conversely, they are number two and number one, respectively, in terms of field goals made per game. 

DLSU GREEN ARCHERS vs. LPU PIRATES

• What's at stake: DLSU needs to win all of its remaining games and cross its fingers, if it wants a semi-finals berth.
• Key DLSU stat: In wins, DLSU shoots better than 60% from the foul line (67% and 68% versus Arellano and National U., respectively)

UP FIGHTING MAROONS vs. MIT CARDINALS

• What's at stake: MIT needs to win in order to make the semi-finals. 
• Key UP stat: UP is last in offensive rebounds per game (10.1), and second to the last in offensive rebounds allowed per game (18.3)
• Key MIT stat: Mapua is fourth worst in turnovers per game (20.6), and third worst in turnovers forced per game (15.7)