NCAA S87: LPU vs SSCR

History Lesson:
Guest team Lyceum Pirates and the San Sebastian Stags have tangled before in the Fil-Oil Preseason Tournament, in a pretty good match that showed a hint of Lyceum's potential even back then. Down 22-11 after one quarter, Lyceum killed the Stags reserves, 32-18 in the second quarter, to enter halftime up 43-40. A drive by Jan Lacap to begin the fourth gave Lyceum a 65-56 lead, its highest, but San Sebastian finally woke up, and let loose "The Beast" to forge a 72-all tie. Lyceum went scoreless shortly after, allowing the Stags to complete their fourth quarter comeback, 81-74.

LPU Storyline : Raise your hand if you had the Pirates win four games. Keep those hands raised if you thought they would four and two. Yeah, didn't think so. The Pirates continue to impress, with their latest feat being a rain of triples (12 of 30 from beyond the arc) coming down on the zone of Arellano. At this point, the Pirates are basically playing with house money, which makes the possibility of an upset win so tantalizing, and so realistic as well.
Stat to Watch : A large part of the Pirates' success has been the stellar outside shooting of the team, led by Chris Cayabyab, and backed up by guys like Floricel Guevarra and Gian Mallari. Lyceum actually leads the league in makes per game (6.8, one full three over Mapua) and are tops in 3pt % (32.3%). Interestingly enough, SSCR is second in three-point defense, allowing just 23.2%, so something's going to have to give here.
Player to Watch : In the summer, Chris Cayabyab top-scored for the Pirates with 25 points, most coming from inside the arc though (9 of 12) as compared to outside (2 of 8). He'll most likely draw the attention of Calvin Abueva, and whether he can score or not, and then stop Abueva on the other end, will likely determine who wins this game.

SSCR Storyline : After defeating Letran 71-62 late in the fourth quarter, the Stags become "that other 4-0 team," when compared to the San Beda Red Lions. A look at the teams they've played though reveals that Baste has already defeated JRU and Letran, while San Beda can really only claim Arellano and the other squad of this post, Lyceum, as their major wins. A Baste win puts them above San Beda in terms of quality of wins, especially when you consider that the Stags took care of the CSB Blazers handily, 86-78.
Stat to Watch : The Stags possess a deadly combination, and by deadly I mean for themselves. They're third in the league in turnovers committed a game, with 21 (though in fairness to them Lyceum is second, with 22.7), and second lowest in turnovers forced, with just 15.8 a game. That could be the source of some easy points for canny opponents, with the Stags being almost even in terms of turnover points scored (14.3) and allowed (14.5).
Player to Watch : With Jonathan Semira out with his ACL tear, Lyle Antipuesto seems poised to be the Stags' designated sniper. Boasting the best percentage from downtown on the team, having made six of his nine attempts, it wouldn't be impossible for him to get a few open looks while the Pirates defense collapses on guys like Ian Sangalang or Abueva.

Prediction: San Sebastian Stags

One Day Later: DLSU vs UP, UE vs ADMU

DLSU 79 - UP 67
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Feed it to the bigs - Arnold Van Opstal and Yutien Andrada had an easy time inside against UP (pic source)

Player of the Game : Yutien Andrada bounced back from an injury that forced him to miss the Ateneo-La Salle game by chipping in 11 points on 5/8 shooting, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, a block and a steal. The gangly looking big man seemed to be everywhere on the court, using his wingspan to affect shots and even nailing an open jumper or two. Of La Salle's big men, Andrada strikes the balance between height and ability, and he should (should!) see more minutes in the succeeding games of the Archers.

DLSU Stat to Watch : A more cohesive starting five, more opportunities to run, and less turnovers, all factors that led to more assists for the Archers, who tallied 25 after averaging just 13 in their first two games.
DLSU Player to Watch : Moved to the bench in favor of Maui Villanueva, Norbert Torres still struggled in his 19 minutes, scoring just 4 points on 2 of 6 shooting with 4 turnovers. On the bright side, he did pull down 9 rebounds, 4 on the offensive end, and his two scores came from going down into the post, instead of hanging around the perimeter taking bad shots.

UP Stat to Watch : The Fighting Maroons managed to squeeze out 4 more fastbreak points than the Archers, with 16 points on 14 attempts. Unfortunately, a lot of these came in the fourth quarter, when the game was pretty much out of reach. The number of points might have been higher too, had it not been for a couple of botched layups by Maroon guards.
UP Player to Watch : Mike Silungan started the game well, attacking the rim in transition, scoring 8 in the first quarter, and 13 by the first half. But in the second half, with the Archers' defense tightening up, Silungan was forced to the perimeter where his shots weren't going in. It wasn't until the fourth quarter when he finally nailed another bucket, just his second triple of the game, but that was it for him. He did finish with 5 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal and 2 blocks though.

Other Stats:

• UP actually managed to stick with DLSU in a lot of the statistics, save for two very important ones. The first is free throw shooting. DLSU apparently learned from their mistakes in the summer league and shot a superb 17 of 21 from the line. UP on the other hand, was a miserable 7 of 20 on freebies.
• The second key stat that did the Maroons in was rebounding. La Salle nearly doubled the boards of UP, getting 61 rebounds to 33 by UP. On the offensive glass, DLSU exactly doubled what the Maroons had, 26 to 13. Amazingly though, the Archers were only able to get a 1 point advantage in second chance points over UP, but more possessions meant less opportunities for UP to cut into the lead, even if the Archers weren't scoring as much. 
• Mike Gamboa has struggled in the last two games, averaging just 6 points on 33% shooting, 2.5 rebounds and 3 assists. He's also made just a single triple in his last seven attempts, allowing defenses to gang up on Silungan.

Sticky play in the initial 20 minutes of the game had UE smelling upset, but it wasn't meant to be (pic source)

ADMU 73 - UE 61
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Player of the Game : Against the undersized UE Red Warriors, Greg Slaughter went right at the rim in the second half, and finished with a double-double of 18 points and 10 rebounds, plus 2 rejections. Coach Norman Black got on his case at halftime for taking too many jump shots, and the big man made the adjustment, getting into the low post, and drawing lots of contact, slapping fouls on to guys like Chris Javier, RR De Leon and Adrian Santos, forcing UE to field in even smaller guys.

UE Stat to Watch : For all of UE's lack of ceiling, a combination of good box out techniques, leaping ability, and plain old hustle allows the Red Warriors to hang with the taller teams in that stat. Such was the case again yesterday, as UE finished with 4 more rebounds than Ateneo, 44-40, with just 1 less offensive rebound, 14-13, than the team with a seven footer. Both teams also finished with just 6 second chance points off those offensive rebounds.
UE Player to Watch : Chris Javier was able to get in a few flashes of brilliance while struggling to guard Greg Slaughter. Finishing with 9 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists, the former San Beda Red Cub showed off a perimeter jumper that could be a nice weapon if he gets it off more consistently, and a move or so in the paint.

ADMU Stat to Watch : Ateneo played to its norms yesterday, scoring 73 points, its average after three games, and holding UE to 61 points, again, its average after three games. The higher scoring the game, the better it is for Ateneo, and for a while there, it seemed like UE was going to turn this into a 50-point grind after the second quarter, but the Eagles found their groove late behind clutch play from their veterans in the fourth quarter.
ADMU Player to Watch : See the player of the game

Other Stats: 

• Another game, another new line-up for UE, their fourth in as many games. This one had problems putting points on the board as well, scoring just 19 points while the bench, led by Paul Zamar and John Noble, scored 42. In contrast, Ateneo's starters had 52, to just 14 from their reserves.
• Ateneo was horrible from everywhere but inside. They were just 4/31 from the perimeter, 1 of 17 from downtown. 
• The Eagles made double the number of free throw attempts UE got. The Red Warriors finished 7 of 11 on charities, while Ateneo scored 22 of 32 from that same place.

UAAP Picking Record: 9-3

Kiefer Ravena Dunks...And We Are All Witnesses

Kiefer Ravena dunking is not a new phenomenon (no pun intended). He's dunked in-game at least once before, as seen from this footage taken from a Blue Eaglets versus Baby Falcons game from last season (I ripped the footage of YouTube last year, and when I tried to find it awhile ago, the video seemed to have vanished, so credit to the original uploader). 

Now here's his first collegiate dunk, courtesy of user Rickystrong on YouTube:

And finally, a truly jaw-dropping shot of the dunk, by Atenean Duey Guison:

UAAP S74: UST vs ADU

Histroy Lesson:
Though the Adamson Falcons won both encounters against the Growling Tigers last season, both games were close affairs. Round one saw a contrast of styles, as UST leaned on white-hot outside shooting to score 48 markers on 16 made triples, while the Falcons enjoyed a 25 to 9 advantage in turnover points. Ultimately, Adamson's pressure defense won out, giving them 75-71 win, with Lester Alvarez adding some shooting of his own, going 4/5 from beyond the arc. Round two saw UST match ADU's turnover points output, with both sides scoring 23, but Adamson had the benefit of muscle under the basket, getting 18 second chance points on just 13 offensive rebounds. With the UST shooting off its mark, the one-two punch of Janus Lozada and Alex Nuyles overpowered the smaller Tiger wing players.

UST Storyline : The Tigers are riding high on the success of two early wins, but they can't afford to be complacent as their M.O. in past seasons has been to have early-season success before flaming out in the second round. For the Tigers to really be considered a legit threat for a Final Four spot, they'll need to avoid gaffes like their fourth quarter implosion against UE, and work harder on their defense, as was seen in the NU game.
Stat to Watch : UST found itself surprisingly out-rebounded by the tiny UE Red Warriors, getting eight less rebounds, seven less on the offensive end, and owning just two second chance points to their name. The Falcons have a pretty good group of big men, highlighted by Eric Camson, and their guards like Janus Lozada and Alex Nuyles are tall for their positions and can sky for rebounds. If UST doesn't get active on the glass, they find themselves trailing by a lot.
Player to Watch : Jeric Fortuna is one of the best (and one of the most underrated) at his position. His current averages are 17.5 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals, but not included there is his sense of the big moments, as Fortuna has bailed UST out of bad situations late in the game twice already. Going up against Lester Alvarez, who has been in a funk lately, Fortuna has the potential to dominate his position if he puts his mind to it defensively.

ADU Storyline : Adamson rebounded nicely from a scoreless fourth quarter against the Blue Eagles by drubbing the FEU Tamaraws in almost every way conceivable. When the Falcons get their transition game going, it's pretty hard to stop them, but add in a dominant performance in the second chance points category as well, and things get pretty rough. That's the sort of thing the Falcons need to get right so that they don't become just a jump-shooting team like they were late versus Ateneo.
Stat to Watch : After a season in which the Tigers led the league by shooting triples at a 37.79% clip as a team, the Tigers are down to just 29.73% this season from beyond the arc. That said, the 3-ball is sitll one of their major weapons, especially down the stretch, courtesy of Jeric Fortuna. The Falcons will need to keep that percentage low and contest every triple, most especially late in the fourth.
Player to Watch : Alex Nuyles exploded for 22 points versus FEU, and no doubt, Coach Pido Jarencio took notice, and will sic Jeric Teng on him, after successfully locking down Bobby Ray Parks. Unlike Parks though, Nuyles' squad has a good deal of alternate scorers whom he can pass to while acting as a decoy. He can also use his superior leaping ability to pull down rebounds for put-backs or resets. So even if he doesn't score a lot of points, Nuyles still has the potential to contribute in other areas.

Prediction: Adamson Soaring Falcons

UAAP S74: NU vs FEU

History Lesson:
FEU claimed two wins against NU last season, with the first round encounter being a close affair. After entering the fourth quarter with a 56-54 lead, NU found itself on the wrong end of the record column, with FEU edging them 76-72, as Reil Cervantes and Aldrech Ramos combined for 26 points, 20 rebounds, 3 assists and 6 blocks, wasting as 23 point, 9 rebound effort from Kokoy Hermosisima. Deciding that they didn't want another close game the second time around, The Tamaraws began with a 26-12 first quarter and then shifted into cruise-control, winning 77-62, behind 23 points from RR Garcia and 8 assists from Jens Knuttel.

NU Storyline : If you had NU going to the Final Four, let alone the Finals, then the demolition job by Ateneo on the Bulldogs last Thursday had to have shook your confidence, as the Eagles pushed all the right buttons to blow out a foe they went back and forth with in the preseason. But aside from exposing NU's vulnerability to turnovers and fast breaks, that game and the one they won versus UP, showed just how reliant this squad is on Bobby Ray Parks to create for them when things are going wrong. And as UST and Ateneo have shown, all it takes is one athletic stopper, and Parks can be shut down.
Stat to Watch : Luckily for NU, they face an FEU team that doesn't force a whole lot of turnovers (16.33 this season, league-low 12.57 last year). Still, against a UE team that messed up a lot on their own, without any extra prodding from the Tamaraws, FEU scored 29 turnover points, and so the NU guards had better be careful come game time.
Player to Watch : Gelo Alolino made a case for himself to be the starting point guard once again, after a yawn-worthy 9 minute, 2 point stint in their season opener. Coming off the bench for 19 minutes, Alolino had 11 points, second best on the team in that game, including a four-point play. He may not rack up a lot of assists, but if NU continues with its drive and dish offense, Alolino could be the recipient of a lot of Parks' kick-out passes for open triples.

FEU Storyline : The Tamaraws righted the ship against the UE Red Warriors, though it wasn't pretty, as whatever malaise they were suffering from against Adamson carried over in the first quarter. Coach Bert Flores complained about his squad's slow starts and attributed them to poor rebounding, making it hard for FEU to establish tempo. More interesting perhaps is his shift to a longer rotation, with shorter stints for players, almost DLSU-like, except for only about 10-11 players. Against an NU team with a strong rebounder in Emmanuel Mbe and a pretty deep bench themselves, we'll have to see if FEU can match-up well enough in the face of all these adjustments.
Stat to Watch : The Tamaraws currently average 39.33 rebounds a game, 15.67 on the offensive end, for an average of 9.33 second chance points. The absence of Pipo Noundou is telling, and his replacements, Mark Bringas, Clarence Foronda, Russel Escoto and Carl Bryan Cruz have just been average at best. Not only should these guys bang the boards, they ought to bang bodies with Emmanuel Mbe in the hope that he gets into foul trouble early again and open up the rim.
Player to Watch : So who will have the "honor" of guarding Bobby Ray Parks? Coach Flores says it will be Ping Exciminiano, who acquitted himself well against the many tweeners of UE. But Parks is a whole different beast, bringing not just athleticism, but bulk as well. Still, he fits the profile of guards who have successfully bothered Bobby Ray (Teng, Long), and if he can get in a couple of swipes that lead to run out baskets, then FEU will be in good shape.

Prediction: NU Bulldogs

One Day Later: JRU vs MIT, SBC vs CSB

A tragedy in the making, the Cardinals had no idea of the heartbreak that awaited them (pic source)

JRU 70 - MIT 69
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Player of the Game  : With defense starting to key in on John Lopez, having identified him as "the man," Jeckster Apinan used the opportunity to waltz in and score unhindered several times, allowing him to hit 16 points on 11 of 7 shooting, in just 26 minutes of play. He also added five rebounds, two assists and two steals to just one turnover. More importantly, Apinan scored 10 big points in the final quarter, paving the way for JRU to upset.

JRU Stat to Watch : Late in the fourth quarter, JRU added a new wrinkle to their full-court press, switching it up to trapping the ball handler by the sideline just as he crossed half court. The trap worked brilliantly, especially in the light of the fact that the Mapua ballhandlers seemed to go there automatically, essentially playing into the Heavy Bombers' schemes. If that is a tendency of Mapua, credit goes to the JRU coaching staff for catching that, as it allowed them to finish with a 13-19 advantage in turnovers (though Mapua still finished with more turnover points, 18 for the Cards to 17 for JRU).
JRU Player to Watch : Do-it-all rookie John Villarias continued his strong play, though he didn't need to make too much of an impact thanks to Raycon Kabigting rediscovering his touch from outside. Villarias finished with 10 points in 21 minutes, while also chipping in four rebounds, four assists and a steal. Six of his points came in the first quarter, when JRU was in danger of being overwhelmed, so kudos to the kid.

MIT Stat to Watch : Mapua's fourth quarter woes continued, this time with a 22 to 9 performance that saw the Cardinals shut down offensively with about four minutes remaining.
MIT Player to Watch : Poor, poor Allan Mangahas. For some weird reason, MIT coach Chito Victolero wants nothing to do with the guy, demoting him to the bench unit in lieu of Jonathan Banal. And what a wacky bench unit it was! Aside from Mangahas, there was a pair of tiny guards who can't create their own shots, Andretti Stevens and Jumel Chien, plus two back to the basket big men, Mark Sarangay and Mike Parala. Mangahas basically had to carry the scoring load for the reserves, finishing with just 7 in 18 minutes as defenses honed in on him (he did manage five assists out of double teams and three steals). Just when you thought his hard play was going to be rewarded, a Victolero, shock of all shocks, kept him on the floor down the stretch, his own teammate Yousef Taha whacks him open with an elbow, forcing him to leave the court. And then they lost. Allan Mangahas, everyone. 

Other Stats:

• Fueled by adrenaline, Mapua started the game with 10 fastbreak points. They then scored just two more the entire game. It was the opposite for JRU, which scored 0 in the first, and then had six in the final quarter.
• Josan Nimes' performance looks impressive, but the rookie scored all 19 of his points in the first half. He and Taha also had the most turnovers on the squad, with four each.

Upset bid upset, Lastimosa couldn't drive in the final nail to topple San Beda (pic source)

SBC 79 - CSB 78
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Player of the Game : With his team falling apart around him, Baser Amer decided "screw it, I'll do this!" and went to town, dropping all 11 of his points in the fourth quarter, nine coming from beyond the arc, and dishing out three of his seven assists. And still, it was nearly not enough as the rookie missed two huge free throws that left the door open for Carlo Lastimosa to win the game.

SBC Stat to Watch : San Beda's usual trick of beating the zone by running was not on display today, as the Red Lions turned seven fast break opportunities into just seven points. The outside shot wasn't falling either for them, as they were 7 of 24 from beyond the arc.
SBC Player to Watch : Baser Amer did turn in a breakout performance, but more by necessity rather than any garbage time shenanigans (see above for more).

CSB Stat to Watch : With the Red Lions looking disoriented and lost, Benilde only coughed up the ball 16 times, to 14 turnovers by San Beda. CSB was also able to slightly edge SBC in terms of turnover points, getting 20 to the Red Lions' 19.
CSB Player to Watch : Mark Romero played 34 minutes but had little impact on the stat sheet, finishing with six points on two triples, three rebounds and two assists. Of bigger importance though, are his two missed free throws late in the fourth, which, had he converted, would have put the Blazers over the top.

Other Stats:

• Benilde had the right idea to take it hard to the Red Lions, getting 34 attempts from the foul line (making 24 for 71%) to just 18 for San Beda (who made 12, for 67%). More importantly, it forced Coach Lim to go with other line-ups, as guys like Anjo Caram, Dave Marcelo, Jake Pascual, Rome Dela Rosa all finished with four fouls.
• Garvo Lanete picked a horrible night to go 1/10 from beyond the arc, as San Beda's resident zone buster went ice cold. 
• Jonathan Grey continued his campaign for more minutes, finishing with 13 points and six rebounds in 21 minutes. Paolo Taha also had a good showing, 11 points, five rebounds, two assists and a block in 17 minutes. With those two playing well, it's no wonder Michael Pate was chained to the bench.

NCAA Picking Record: 13-8

UAAP S74: UE vs ADMU

History Lesson:
After a season had gone by since their Season 72 battle for the UAAP title, a vastly diminished UE squad still gave the ADMU Blue Eagles fits in both rounds of Season 73. In their first encounter, Ateneo needed a big 29-16 fourth quarter, plus stellar performances from Eric Salamat (23 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals) and Justin Chua (13 points, 7 rebounds, 4 blocks) to come out on top,  80-73. Round two saw the Red Warriors upset Ateneo late, behind a breakout showing by Kit Rosopa (12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks) and sizzling shooting from James Martinez (22 points off the bench), 62-60.

UE Storyline : The Warriors came out and shocked FEU, blowing them out 12-2 behind some frenzied play in the first quarter, but the momentum didn't carry over, and once the Tamaraws settled down, the lead quickly dissipated and UE found itself collapsing once again. It's important to remember that while UE is not as talented as the other teams, they play really hard in each game. An overconfident or lazy opponent is the perfect prey for UE to pounce on and upset.
Stat to Watch : UE's rebounding has been keeping them in games, no matter how tall their opponent, getting 45.67 rebounds on average, 17.67 offensive, and of those offensive rebounds, the Red Warriors score around 11.33 second chance points. They'll be up against their tallest opposition though, as 7'0" Greg Slaughter will be there waiting to get a few rebounds.
Player to Watch : In the off-season, Ateneo coveted one of the two San Beda Red Cubs big men, Ponso Gotladera or Chris Javier, with both ultimately winding up in other schools. Javier was thought to be the better fit for Ateneo, raw, could spend a season or two in Team B, before ultimately being called up and tutored by the best big man coach in the UAAP, Norman Black. Javier has a lot of potential, but whether or not he can realize it amidst a bunch of losing must be questioned. He currently averages just 5 points (41% FG) and 5.33 rebounds in 21.67 minutes for UE.

ADMU Storyline : The Eagles have begun their campaign for a fourth straight title by dispatching three potential Final Four teams in a row, with better performances and larger margins of victory in each succeeding game. Comparing the two teams on paper shows a large divide in terms of talent, but the last thing Ateneo wants is a repeat of Season 72's loss to upstart UP, a 68-58 shellacking that saw the Fighting Maroons rain from outside, marring what would have been a perfect record. 
Stat to Watch : This is a battle between two teams on opposite ends of the scoring spectrum. Ateneo is the only team to have broken the 80 point barrier so far, and have done it twice, while averaging 74 points a game. UE on the other hand, is the only team to score less than 50 points, and is worst in the league with an average of just 53.67 points a game. Ateneo needs to turn this into a rout early, possibly by the first quarter, and not let up, removing any thoughts UE might have of an upset as soon as possible.
Player to Watch : Since his 23 point, 8 rebound debut against the Adamson Falcons, Ateneo has gone away from just pounding the ball into Slaughter, as teams have learned to double and even triple team him all the time. Against UE though, they can bring as many players as they want, but with many of them being just 6'4" tops, Slaughter might just decide that he can sky-hook and jump shoot these guys over and over, on route to a huge statistical performance. That is, if coach Norman Black gives him a lot of minutes at all.


Prediction: ADMU Blue Eagles