Tuesday, November 22, 2011

PCCL 2011 - NU vs JRU

Three Up
  • JRU knew exactly what to do on defense, sending guys sprinting back down the court after made shots, while keeping an eye out to intercept any outlet errant outlet passes. It didn't always work, NU still got 13 transition attempts and 14 transition points, but in comparison to the Bulldogs' first three games, it was enough for the Bombers to get the win. 
  • The big men of JRU also did a good job on Emmanuel Mbe for most of the game. In the first half, the Cameroonian center was held to just 4 points, 3 rebounds and 1 block on a team-high 14 minutes of play and had accumulated 2 personal fouls. Mbe would explode in the third quarter for 4 minutes, before foul trouble sat him down again, but in the final period, he had just 2 points in 8 minutes.
  • Balanced scoring on the part of JRU meant they were difficult for NU to stop. Though only John Lopez finished with double-digit points, 10, the fourth placers in the NCAA then had two players with eight points each, four players with seven, and then one with six.

Three Down
  • NU had gotten back to back easy drives into the lane by Jeoffrey Javillonar to cut NU's lead down to 63-62, but after Nate Matute's split at the line made it a two-point game, the Bulldogs coaching staff made the curious move of subbing in Reden Celda, who had not played at all in the fourth quarter up to that point, and letting him attempt the game-tying layup. Celda's move wound up being short, and JRU was able to win. Perhaps they were going for the element of surprise there, but Celda was coming in ice cold, while Javillonar had already scored 8 in the period. It just strikes me as an odd move, though had it gone in, it would have obviously been a huge deal. 
  • Talk about your bad shooting days. JRU's star rookie John Villarias was a miserable 3 of 15 from the field for 8 points. It wasn't as if he were shut down too, Villarias simply missed a lot of shots he normally makes. 
  • Alex Almario played a game-high 38 minutes, the only player in fact, to log more than 30. Think it affected his play? Almario played the entire fourth quarter and had nothing to show for it, zeroes in every stat, except for turnovers, where he had two.   

Random Notes
  • This up-tempo NU squad played a lot better than the half-court oriented team we saw in the UAAP (they were ranked 6th in the league in fastbreak attempts and points), but unfortunately, they didn't survive long enough for us to see them try to integrate Bobby Ray Parks in the mix.
  • There's a rumor that these players, plus Parks, will form the core of the NU team next season, meaning Joseph Terso, Spencer Eman, Jul-Ashri Ignacio, Robby Celiz, and Marion Magat are all off Team A. That's certainly more believable than the similar rumor that had every NU player on a D-League roster being off the team. 
  • JRU's Ralph Monserrat was productive in the time he spent on the floor, though he did accumulate four fouls in 16 minutes. With John Montemayor graduating, Monserrat will likely see an uptick in minutes next year. He'll need to bulk up though, because he lacks a lot of heft compared to Montemayor.

 

PCCL 2011 - NU vs JRU

Thursday, November 17, 2011

The Indon camera crew for the SINAG games started out horrible (Phil. versus Cambodia was a mess) but has gradually improved to "passable." One horrendous lapse though was showing a highlight while this play was going on in yesterday's match between the Philippines and Thailand:





Unfortunately, Ravena was whistled for a travel on the play, thus the reaction from the coaching staff in the bottom part of your screen.

In case you forgot, he's about 5'10"

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Semerads Transfer to Ateneo

File this one under the category: "News that comes out of nowhere." 

Anthony and David Semerad, Fil-Australian twins who played key roles down the stretch of San Beda's recent back to back championship season, have reportedly traded in their Red Lion unis for the blue and white of Ateneo de Manila. 

According to a source close to the Red Lions, the duo left earlier this week and will sit out the remainder of the second academic semester to enroll at Ateneo in March, starting with the summer sem of 2012. 

News of the twins' move took the San Beda coaching staff by surprise, adds the source. 

Anthony Semerad was in and out of the line-up this season, but came on strong towards the tailend. His most memorable game of the season came against San Sebastian in the second round, when he exploded for 10 points in six minutes against the zone of the Golden Stags. Overall, he averaged 6.4 points in 15.7 minutes, while shooting a team-best 39 percent from outside the arc.

David Semerad was San Beda's third-string center, providing additional toughness behind Kyle Pascual and Dave Marcelo, but he strutted his stuff on the largest stage possible: the second game of the NCAA Finals this year, with San Beda already having won the first match. In a defensive grinder of a fourth quarter, David scored seven of his team's nine points, finishing with 15 markers, three rebounds, an assist, a steal and a block in 22 minutes. 

In addition to the Semerads, San Beda will lose Dave Marcelo, Garvo Lanete, Mar Villahermosa and Sudan Daniel to either graduation or eligibility. They do however, have a stacked Team B, that features names like Ivan Ludovice (transfer from NU), Art Dela Cruz Jr. (transfer from ADMU), Jaypee Mendoza (former Team A), Fil-Am Julius Armon, and Nigerian Ola Adeogun, plus a champion San Beda Red Cubs team that graduates all but four players. 

One hold-up to the integration of the Semerads to the Blue Eagles is how long the two will have to sit out and serve their residency. 

Normally, a transfer from a non-UAAP team to a UAAP team will have to sit out a year. That means they become eligible in 2013 or Season 76, when the likes of Nico Salva, Justin Chua, Tonino Gonzaga, and Greg Slaughter and Oping Sumalinog, should they return for their last year of eligibility. Having played two seasons in the NCAA, they can play a maximum of three more years before they turn 26. 

The problem though is the fact that the two Semerads played in the inaugural conference of the PBA-Developmental League for the Maynilad team. In the NCAA, this was not a problem because players are allowed to play for a minor league after just one season. The UAAP however requires one to have played at least two seasons before becoming eligible for minor leagues. It thus becomes very possible that the UAAP board might enforce a penalty on the two, such as sitting out an additional year. 


Monday, November 7, 2011

Point Forward: Season 74's Best Point Guard is...

The difference between Steve Nash and Russell Westbrook is a subtle one, when talking about point guards. The former will look to pass first, and if all passing lanes are closed, will then try to take the best shot possible. The latter on the other hand, will try to take the best shot possible, and if he's held in check by the defense, will then look to get the ball into the hands of an open teammate.

In the UAAP, you get more Russell Westbrook's than Steve Nash's, most of the time, out of necessity, not design.

It's easy to be Steve Nash when you have a ton of weapons around you, an Amare Stoudemire to dunk the ball, Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson on the wings, a do-it-all player like Shawn Marion to fill in the gaps. Russell Westbrook has to be Russell Westbrook because aside from him and Kevin Durant, who's a reliable option? Thabo Sefalosha? Kendrick Perkins? Serge Ibaka? Those are good defensive options, but on offense, you're basically playing 2 vs 5.

The same thing applies to the UAAP. The reason why there are a ton of scoring point guards ("points" guards in local slang) is because it's hard to assemble a five-man unit where everyone is a threat to score, be it through the design of a coach (needs defense on the floor) or because recruitment has gotten so much better (the "great" players have been scattered across the league).

This is a long-winded way for me to say that the numbers have Emman Monfort as the best overall point guard from Season 74 of the UAAP. The keyword there is "overall."




A look at the basic stats makes it easy to see why some fans have guys like Jeric Fortuna or RR Garcia (aside: you do know that he's played shooting guard for the majority of this season right?) at the top of their point guard rankings. The thing that immediately jumps out is the disparity in points, with most of them averaging at least 10 per game. They're also better pure three-point shooters and come up with about the same number of rebounds and steals, though at the expense of more turnovers. Monfort's advantages however are first, he dishes out more assists, and by a wide margin over the next closest player (LA Revilla). He's also far better at shooting free throws than the rest of the guys on that list. Finally, he's tied for most steals along with two other point guards.

On the surface, the Nash-Westbrook comparisons ring true. Monfort doesn't need to shoot a whole lot, not when he has so many excellent finishers on his squad (Greg Slaughter, Kiefer Ravena, Nico Salva). When he does shoot, he's not very good at it (this is deceiving however, and we'll get to that later on), though he can kill you from the line. On the other hand, guys like Fortuna and Lester Alvarez shoulder a lot more of their team's offense, and thus, put more points on the board at the expense of passing off (or not passing off, as it is) to players who aren't great finishers (think: Fortuna jumper or pass to Paolo Pe? Alvarez jumper or pass to Jan Colina?). At this level, it's like comparing apples to oranges.



How pass-first is Monfort? A whole lot, according to advance statistics.

  • The first number, AST% or Assist Percentage, is a close estimate of "the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on on the floor" and can be solved for with the formula: 100 * AST  / (((MIN / (Team MIN / 5)) * Team FG) - FG). 
  • The second number, A:FG or Assist to Field Goal Ratio, is pretty self-explanatory
  • The third number,  USG% or Usage Percentage, "is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor" or in other words, the percentage of times a player is the one attempting a shot or turning the ball over. It can be solved for with the formula: 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TO) * (Team MIN / 5)) / (MIN * (Team FGA + 0.44 * Team FTA + Team TO)) 
  • The fourth number, A:T or Assist to Turnover Ratio, is pretty self-explanatory as well
What those numbers mean is Monfort is much more likely to assist than shoot (31.81 AST%, 0.76 AST:FG ratio, 15.28 USG%), and he does so at the most efficient rate (2.87 AST:TO ratio). That supports our earlier belief that Monfort is an excellent pass-first point guard. But what about when it comes to scoring?

More interesting is the latter two stats.
  • EFG% or effective field goal percentage "adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal" with the formula (FG + 0.5 * 3PM) / FGA.
  • TS% or true shooting percentage does EFG% one better by incorporating free throw percentage, with the formula PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA))
With these two in play, we see that only Jelo Montecastro (who doesn't take three-pointers) and LA Revilla have higher EFG% than Monfort (His teammate, Kirk Long, has a higher EFG% as well). And when you factor in free throw shooting in TS%, Monfort jumps way ahead of the pack, three percentage points better than Revilla, the next-best on another team.

What that means is that Monfort truly looks to set up his teammates first and foremost before anything else. However, in the 15.28% of possessions in which he looks to score or make a play, he does so at a better percentage than just about any other comparable point guard. While his individual components (2P% and 3P%) are nothing to get excited about, it is the combination of the two stats, plus FT% for TS%, that make him a better overall shooter, be it from the field or at the line. It is for that reason that I have to conclude that he is the best "overall" point guard this past season.

The journey of Monfort is an interesting one, going from instant offense off the bench to floor general in his final playing year. We often talk about how Ateneo head coach Norman Black is perhaps the best big man coach currently in the UAAP, but he's certainly making a case for transforming score-first players into pass-first guys as well, as seen in the improvement of the likes of Jai Reyes, Eric Salamat, and now Emman Monfort.

With Monfort's graduation, the trend may continue, with shoot-first guard Juami Tiongson presumably assuming the starting point guard position in Season 75. If Black works his magic on him as well, then it's safe to say that this is no fluke and the player development out of Katipunan is simply astounding, whether you're a guard or a big man.

All of this is not to say that guys like Fortuna, Alvarez and Garcia are bad players. However, if we are to go by the strictest definition of what a point guard is, the numbers have Monfort as being the cream of the crop.



Further Reading:

Friday, November 4, 2011

PCCL 2011 - Metro Manila Knockout Games Primer

November 8:

2pm: NAASCU Champion University of Manila Hawks versus ISAA Champion Technological Institute of the Philippines Engineers

UM Hawks TIP Engineers
#4 Rivera, Andrew #18 Acebo, Leonard Ray
#5 Torres, Eugene #11 Banez, Jaime Jr.
#6 Bonleon, Alvin Andrew #9 Dela Punta, Darwin
#7 Ruiz, Clemente #5 Espanola, Ramon Angelo
#8 Garcia, Jose Luis #12 Gonzales, Runel
#9 Flores, Amante #16 Martinez, Vergel
#10 Ancheta, Jerry #6 Medina, Kimley
#11 Viernes, Jeff Alvin #15 Morillo, Jefferson
#12 Manuel, Jay-Ar #17 Namocatcat, Jemuel
#14 Gonzales, Jayson #13 Osicos, Khenn
#15 Guti-Ay, Salvador #5 Paulo, Sean Francis
#16 Eneria, Michael #14 Perez, Paulo
#17 Ibay, Jayson #7 Uy, Alistine
#18 Castro, Sherwin #4 Viernes, Mark Jesus
#19 Serrano, Jerald
Head Coach: Ferdinand Castillo Head Coach: Bong Arroyo

4pm: NCAA Fifth Placer Lyceum of the Philippines University Pirates versus UAAP Fifth Placer National University Bulldogs

LPU Pirates NU Bulldogs
#14 Anacta, Aaron #4 Alolino, Gelo
#4 Azores, Arwin #13 Celda, Reden
#9 Cayabyab, Chris #8 Celiz, Robby
#6 Francisco, Mark #12 Eman, Spencer
#12 Guevarra, Floricel #7 Ignacio, Jul-Ashri
#17 Ko, Shane #5 Javillonar, Jeoffrey
#7 Lacap, Jan #17 Khobuntin, Glenn
#13 Laude, Vence #11 Labing-isa, Cedrick
#10 Lesmoras, Tirso #10 Magat, Marion
#11 Mallari, Gian #14 Mbe, Emmanuel
#18 Napiza, Onofre #16 Neypes, Kyle
#5 Ong, Jerome #15 Parks, Bobby Ray
#16 Pascual, Faustine #19 Rono, Robin

#9 Singh, Ajeet

#6 Terso, Joseph

#18 Villamor, Denice
Head Coach: Bonnie Tan Head Coach: Eric Altamirano

November 9:

2pm: MNCAA Champion Centro Escolar University Scorpions versus UCLAAI Champion St. Francis of Assisi Doves

CEU Scorpions St. Francis of Assisi Doves
Magbitang, John Paul #4 Guevarra, Ronoel
Paralo, Mark Jerwin #5 Castro, Lawrence Paolo
Chua, Kim Dernard #6 Santiago, Paul Jordan
Akpa, Thankgod #7 Paday, Joeseph
Gallardo, Ryan #8 Parcero, Lance Kervin
Garcia, Axl Jeff #10 Melano, Jayson
Navarro, Jan Sebastian #11 Castanos, Jonathan
Anain, Aldreen Lorenz #14 Soriano, Jorel
Tuazon, Lester John #15 Martin, Francis
Babad, Leymund #17 Rote, Denver
Lobaton, Leeward #19 Milo, Joseph
Bernardo, John Andrew #20 Pranillos, Seron
Banua, Carmelito #21 Monzon, Ephraim

#22 Sabad, John Paul
Head Coach: Mon Jose Head Coach: Gabby Velasco

4pm: UAAP Sixth Placer De La Salle University Green Archers versus NCAA Sixth Placer Mapua Institute of Technology Cardinals

DLSU Green Archers MIT Cardinals
#6 Torres, Norbert #7 Abad, Michael
#7 Van Opstal, Arnold #8 Banal, Jonathan
#8 Mendoza, Jovet #9 Nimes, Josan
#9 Sara, Roldan #10 Stevens, Andretti
#10 Webb, Joshua #11 Taha, Yousef
#11 Reyes, Martin #12 Magsigay, Darel
#12 Revilla, LA #15 Parala, Mike
#15 Gotladera, Ponso #16 Chien, Jumiel
#16 Marata, Joseph #17 Ighalo, Kenneth
#17 Vosotros, Almond #18 Cantos, Jeson
#18 Paredes, Papot
#21 Dela Paz, Luigi
#22 Tampus, Jarelan
Head Coach: Tyrone Bautista Head Coach: Chito Victolero


The winners of each game will play the other same day winner on November 10 with the November 8 teams facing off at 2pm, and the November 9 squads at 4pm. The winners there will move on to Sweet 16 spots in the Luzon-Metro Manila bracket.

NCAA S87 Autopsy: EAC Generals

Outgoing Players
- Claude Cubo (28.8 minutes, 11.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1 assist, 0.8 blocks)
- Dhan Diolanto (11.8 minutes, 0.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.6 assists)

Win/Loss Records
- Season 87: 4-14 (10th out of 10)
- Season 86: 2-14 (9th out of 9, due to quotient)
- Season 85: 6-12 (7th out of 10, due to quotient)


Key Stats
- Attempted the fewest free throws per game (20.33)
- Had the fewest assists per game (12.94) while committing the most turnovers (21.5)
- Allowed the most points per game (82.61), thanks in part to allowing the most two-point makes (25.67) and attempts (52.5), and as a result, the most field goal makes (29.94) and attempts (69.22)
- Gave up the most rebounds (47.33) and tied Perpetual Help for the most fouls per game (19.72)
- Finished last in transition defense (10.94 attempts and 14.83 transition points)

Season in a Glance
An early 2-1 start to the season had many thinking the Emilio Aguinaldo College Generals were on an upswing after landing in the cellar prior. Though they were just 2-6 in the Fil-Oil Preseason Tournament, the Generals seemed poised to buck a lot of projections by virtue of three players whom they "hid" during the summer games: former FEU-FERN Baby Tam Jolas Paguia, and the one-two Fil-Am punch of Joshua Torralba and Igee King.

As it turned out, that start was to be the high point of the Generals' campaign. In succeeding games, EAC looked lost on both ends of the court, relying too much on isolation plays and finding themselves lost or late on defense, forcing them to give up fouls. Most notably, they were roundly squashed by the eventual champion San Beda Red Lions on both occasions, losing by 41 in round one, and then by a season-worst 54 in round two. Making things worse was a combination of suspensions (Claude Cubo, Paguia) and injuries (three games for Torralba, four games for King) that limited their ability to stay competitive against lower-tier teams. A 3-4 record at the seven game mark gave them some hope that they could sneak into the playoffs, but they would go on to win just one more match, sandwiched between two five-game losing streaks.

Highlight: Down 59-45 late in the third quarter in their season opener against the Arellano Chiefs, Jolas Paguia led a furious EAC rally that saw them explode for a 19-2 run fueled by three consecutive triples to snatch the lead away, 69-61 with five minutes left to play. From then on, the Generals successfully played keep-away, before winning 84-77.


Lowlight: Still without Torralba and King, EAC had to line-up against the SBC Red Lions and the result of the second round meeting was overkill. San Beda never scored less than 25 points in each quarter, and led 55-36 at the break easily. The worst was yet to come however, as the Generals seemingly threw in the towel by the end of the third quarter, leading to a 36-8 fourth quarter scoring spree by the defending champs, exploding their margin of victory all the way up to 53.


Off-season Questions

1. Who's their main man?
Jan Jamon was their best offensive weapon, leading the team with 13.7 points a game, while shooting a team-best 37.14% from outside the arc and 84% from the line. Milan Vargas was supposed to be their veteran leader, but he never looked right after knee surgery, though he did norm 8.5 points and 2.4 rebounds, the latter figure being the most on this squad. Rookie Remy Morada showed he could explode for a ton of points when given the minutes and the ball. Joshua Torralba was perhaps their best creator on offense (though he usually created shots for himself). Head coach Gerry Esplana will need to establish a pecking order and make sure his guys stick to it come Season 88.


2. Will their African big men produce?
EAC will be banking on Noube Happi and Jaques Manga forming a potent one-two punch at the center position next season, to replace the Diolanto-Cubo tandem. Happi looked competent during the summer, averaging 8 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1 block in 20 minutes, but whether that translates on to the court during the actual NCAA tournament is still up in the air. They have one more offseason to work out the kinks because they're definitely going to need them come next year.


Team Needs
- Legit 6'5" or taller big man who can play defense
- Pass-first point guard

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

16th PSC-Unigames Basketball Championship



Without their starting five of Greg Slaughter, Kirk Long, Emman Monfort, Kiefer Ravena and Nico Salva, plus reserves Bacon Austria and Oping Sumalinog, a Team-B reinforced Ateneo Blue Eagles team reclaimed the Unigames title, beating the West Negros University Mustangs 76-62 in the Finals.

Should Greg Slaughter decide not to return to play out his final year of eligibility, the strong play of Justin Chua and JP Erram in this tournament are encouraging signs coming out of the five spot. Similarly, Juami Tiongson continued to show that he's capable of taking on the lead point guard role that Monfort will vacate.

Unlike last season, when NU claimed the Unigames crown, no other UAAP team played in the basketball tourney this year.