NCAA S87 F4 Preview: #2 SSCR vs #3 CSJL

History Lesson:
Jul. 20: San Sebastian 71 - Letran 62 (recap)
Sept. 30: Letran 82 - San Sebastian 81(OT) (recap)

How CSJL could win: An early 25-10 hole in the first meeting between these two teams gave Letran fits, as they ran out of time trying to eat into a lead which they were never able to overturn. The Knights played things closer in the second game, down 20-15, but tying things up at the half, before taking a small lead at the end of three quarters. The difference came down to tactics. Letran had 18 second-chance points (thanks to a 20 rebound edge on the offensive glass), to just nine by San Sebastian, with a tie in turnover points. Game two saw Letran go back to what they do best, with a 22-8 turnover point score, but a 17-8 deficit in second-chance points. Making the decision easier is the fact that the Stags turn it over 21.58 times, worst in the league.


CSJL could use big games from:

• Kevin Alas. Letran's best scorer was sidelined with five fouls in round one, finishing with 14 points, four rebounds and four assists. Playing more in check in round two, Alas played all but five minutes, tallying 22 points, six rebounds and 10 assists in the win.
• Franz Dysam. The Robin to Alas' Batman also played poorly, with a five point, two assist, one steal game in round one. That jumped up to 12 points, three assists and three steals in the rematch.

How SSCR could win: The Stags have a knack for starting strong, holding foes down to an average of just 31 points in the first half, thanks in part to shutting down the outside shot, just 25.32 percent allowed from outside the arc. Their second half defense is much weaker however, as their points allowed shoot up to 39.16. Thus it becomes imperative that San Sebastian start strong and construct a large enough lead to survive the second half, something their offense was unable to sustain versus San Beda in their last two matches. To do that, they need to get out and run. They norm 14.11 transition points but notched just 20 in two games versus the Red Lions, and haven't hit 20 points since CSB nearly a month ago.


SSCR could use a big game from:

• Calvin Abueva. "The Beast" was miserable in round two, going 1 for 12 from the field, though he made up for it with a 14 for 15 stint at the line and 20 rebounds. For sure, he'll want to bounce back after that kind of a shooting night.
• Ronald Pascual. San Sebastian's inside-out threat averages 40 percent from the field this season, but he hasn't gone over 40 percent in his last seven games, shooting just 31.71 percent in that time.
• Ian Sangalang. The third-year center loves this match-up. He's averaged 22 points on 65.22 percent shooting, 16 rebounds and 3.5 blocks, as the Knights are often powerless to stop the big guy.

Prediction: SSCR Stags

NCAA S87 F4 Preview: #1 SBC vs #4 JRU

History Lesson:
Aug. 10: San Beda 77- JRU 69 (recap)
Sept. 14: JRU 76 - San Beda 65 (recap)

How JRU could win: In their second-round match-up, the Heavy Bombers managed to conk out the machine-level efficiency of San Beda, holding them to a season-worst 12 assists. That led to the Red Lions scoring their nadir of the season, a puny 65 points, which is a big deal considering how this squad has broken the century mark three times this season. It didn't help that the normally productive bench unit of Coach Lim came up with just 21 points, the only time this year it's scored less than 31. With all of that in mind, it seems like JRU may want to try to let Garvo Lante try to beat them on his own (5 of 18 for 20 points in round two), while shutting down the rest of the team. That's certainly a risky proposition, but it may be a gamble worth taking, given how they're already the underdogs in this series.

JRU could use big games from:

• John Lopez. The big man scored just eight points on 4/9 shooting in round one, but more than doubled his output in the rematch, 17 points on 10/17 shooting.
• Nate Matute. JRU's designated sniper always seems to get open versus the San Beda defense, shredding them for 7 triples in 16 attempts versus the team.
• Raycon Kabigting. Team captain was invisible in round one (eight minutes, 0 points, 0/1 from the field), but had a key role in game two off the bench (20 minutes, 13 points, 4/9 from the field).

How SBC could win: After a pitiful 1 for 11 outside shooting performance versus Lyceum, the defending champs have been shooting lights out, 40 percent to be exact, in the last three games. Combine that with their big man depth, and a concentrated effort to run more since that JRU loss (from nine fastbreak points to 16.71 in their last seven), and it's clear that taking down San Beda at this juncture is a daunting task. But the Red Lions' trick up their sleeves may just be giving the Bombers a taste of their own medicine. JRU forces a league-best 21.94 turnovers per game, but they themselves make a third-worst 20.89 miscues in each outing. And since JRU doesn't have the firepower that San Beda does, that could lead to a hole they can't climb out of.

SBC could use a big game from:

• Garvo Lanete. San Beda's go-to guy had 23 points on 5 of 11 three-point shooting, 7 for 17 from the field, with five assists and two turnovers in round one. He scored 20 in round two, but needed a 3 for 10 from downtown, 5 for 18 field goal clip to get that, along with just a single dime and three errors. 
• Dave Marcelo. Graduating big man is 8 of 10 from the field versus JRU, but in game one, he complemented his scoring with eight rebounds, five blocks and one turnover. In game two, he had just three boards, no blocks and five turnovers.
• Anthony Semerad. The shooty big man is a mismatch for every team in the NCAA, but has played a grand total of seven minutes versus JRU this year because of injuries. In his last three games, he's normed 13.67 points, making half of his 14 triples, and is 12 for 17 from the line. 

Prediction: SBC Red Lions 

A Coaching Carousel for the MVP Teams?

Could Norman Black take his magic back to the PBA? (pic source)

Here's what came out in today's Philippine Daily Inquirer, under the headline "Norman Black to Talk 'N Text, Chot Reyes to Smart Gilas five?" :

"Norman Black is set to make a return to the Philippine Basketball Association as a coaching rigodon is expected to be formalized this month involving teams bankrolled by business tycoon-sportsman Manny V. Pangilinan.

The arrangement will include coach Chot Reyes moving over to the Smart Gilas national team from Talk ‘N Text in the PBA.

But there’s a catch.

A source privy to the details of the arrangement told the Inquirer that even after the deal is made official, it will only be put in motion after the 2012 UAAP season.

Black will move to the Talk ‘N Text camp while Reyes will replace Serbian Rajko Toroman, who was offered the consultant’s post at Smart Gilas after serving as its head coach."

That rang a bell in the heads of a few posters in the online community as it sounded awfully familiar to what a certain "jamalsampson" had posted in the Interbasket forums on a thread about the Philippine Under-16 team about a month ago that went something like this:

"there is new talk within the MVP circle that there will be a rigodon of coaches in his backyard. (but they get to steal one coach from the otherside). Its like a wholesale promotion for everybody.

Rajko Toroman might not be re-signed or is to be retained as consultant

Chot Reyes is to assume the Head Coach position and Project Director for the new generation of GILAS whose core would come from the SEA Games bound SINAG.

Norman Black would go back to the PBA and replace Chot Reyes as Talk N Text Coach.

Olsen Racela is to go back to his Alma Mater and become the new Head Coach of the Ateneo Blue Eagles.

Getting his opportunity to Coach the U18 National Team is Jamike Jarin.

Ryan Gregorio retains his current positions at MERALCO.

Ronnie Magsanoc moves to San Beda Mendiola as Head Coach.

Frankie Lim retains his position at Maynilad but gets a executive position.

Boyet Fernandez retains his position in NLEX." 

A few thoughts:

1. "Rigodon," a word my MacBook's dictionary does not recognize, is actually a variant of "rigadoon" or "rigaudon," which is "a French baroque dance," according to Wikipedia. Now you know! 
2. I think Coach Toroman did a great job given what he had at the time. It was a bit unrealistic to assume that the Philippines would be able to just return to the forefront of Asian basketball in a blink of an eye. Keeping him establishes continuity and a system, which are both important things if we want to really pursue that Olympic dream
3. If you're going to replace Toroman, doesn't it make more sense to replace him with Coach Black, seeing as how he assembled and will coach the Sinag team for the SEAG aka Gilas V2.0? 
4. Not sure how I feel about Olsen Racela as Ateneo head coach. I haven't seen him coach enough of the RP U-16 team to make an informed decision, but if or when Black moves on, he leaves some pretty big shoes to fill and I don't think Racela, who has coached for less than a year if I'm not mistaken, can even come close to filling them. 
5. Why stop at a five-peat? Because it's one more than Franz Pumaren? If Ateneo keeps winning, then I say keep Black, especially if the door is open to match or even exceed Baby Dalupan's record. 
6. I get the feeling that if Black leaves, so too does Kiefer Ravena. That might just be me though. 
7. Who would I pick to coach Ateneo if Black left? Leo Austria would be at the top of my list, with Jamike Jarin second (should it be Jarin, we would live in a world where the Blue Eagles pressed more than the Green Archers).
8. That said, Jarin deserves a high-profile gig like the RP U-18 team. Plus, if past history is any indication, the combination of Racela currently handling the U-16 and Jarin helming the U-18 means Ateneo will get a huge edge in recruiting the blue chip players that make up those squads.
9. I'm not sure how thrilled San Beda fans would be with Magsanoc at the helm. There has always been a segment of Red Lions fans unsatisfied with Coach Lim, but you have to give credit where it is due, Lim does a masterful job shuffling the minutes of a stacked squad, and has crafted a Team B that could take over for the current Team A with little to no downgrade, save perhaps for a lack of depth. 

Obviously, the first domino to fall will what happens when Toroman's contract expires in November. Until then though, this is a ton of speculation that may not actually result in anything.

NCAA S87: SBC vs SSCR

History Lesson:
His shot off all game long, Ronald Pascual drove hard to the basket and found Calvin Abueva for an easy lay-up for what turned out to be the go-ahead basket. Turnovers and missed free throws by Ian Sangalang left the door open for San Beda however, but they came up empty on their final two looks at the basket. Off a timeout, Anjo Caram missed long two-pointer, then after Abueva went out of bounds trying to save the ball, the best shot the Red Lions could get was a corner triple by Dave Marcelo that clanked off the rim, ending San Beda's undefeated streak, as the Stags survived, 70-68. (Recap here)

What's at Stake:

• Up for grabs is positioning for the Final Four, as both these squads have clinched a twice-to-beat advantage in the playoffs. Should San Sebastian win, they'll be matched up against the JRU Heavy Bombers, while San Beda gets to extend their dominance over the Letran Knights. A San Beda win however, forces a playoff for the top seed.

SBC Stat to Watch : As much as possible, the defending champions want to get up and run, and put points on the board in a bad way. For whatever reason, the Red Lions just aren't equipped to deal with a low-scoring game, producing their two lowest outputs in their losses, just 68 and 65 markers.
SBC Player to Watch : Garvo Lanete was held to 0 points and a combined 0/8 from the field in the fourth quarter of SBC's two losses, showing how key this fifth-year veteran is to the team's fortunes. Now the Stags played the situation by guarding him tightly in the fourth quarter, giving him just two attempts and making other guys beat them, which they failed to do. That seems more likely than the 0/6 clip he exhibited versus JRU, which is pretty flukey.

SSCR Stat to Watch : When they lost to Letran, the Knights were able to "ugly up" the game, preventing the Stags from getting out in transition, and scoring off turnovers. San Sebastian got a combined 17 points from fastbreak and turnover points, their second-lowest since their near-loss to Perpetual Help, in which they tallied just 14.
SSCR Player to Watch : Ian Sangalang is the lone guy the Stags can throw it to in the post and watch create, as Dexter Maiquez and Bobby Balucanag are limited to scoring off offensive boards. In the first game, Sangalang was limited to 3 for 7 shooting from the field, 3 for 8 from the line, with just eight rebounds, leaving the door open for the Red Lions to win after flubbing late free throws. They'll need a sharper performance from him in this game if they want to avoid having to play yet another match.

Prediction: SBC Red Lions

One Day Later: EAC vs JRU, LPU vs CSB

JRU 90 - EAC 77
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : Big man John Lopez padded the stat sheet to the tune of 17 points, five rebounds, five assists, a block and a steal, with 13 of those points coming in the second half, when the Heavy Bombers pulled away.

By the Numbers :

• The big story of course is the turnover points category, as JRU turned up the intensity of their press to come back from a 10-point deficit. In the first half, they had 14 points from 10 EAC miscues, numbers that bloated to 22, off 13 turnovers in the latter part of the game.
• EAC tried to compensate by getting to the line, off the physical JRU defense. They shot 20 of 28 from the stripe, above and beyond JRU's 9 of 16 clip, but it still wasn't enough.
• The Bombers matched a season-high with 22 assists in the game.

The Other Names : 

• Milan Vargas notched his season-high in the loss, with 20 points on 6 of 9 shooting, 8 of 10 from the stripe. He also finished with four assists to four turnovers. 
• JRU's shooters were on the mark today, as they have been for the latter part of the season. John Villarias, Nate Matute and Raycon Kabigting were a combined 5 of 10 from downtown. The team as a whole shot 18.25 percent in round one, a figure that has crept up to 31.1 percent since.

LPU 94 - CSB 89
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : Floricel Guevarra scored a season-high 27 points in exactly 27 minutes off the bench, while also adding eight rebounds, an assist, a steal and a block in the process. Guevarra took up the scoring cudgels from an ice-cold Chris Cayabyab and delivered, with 16 points in the last 15 minutes of the game.

By the Numbers :

• From the opening tip, the Pirates resolved to be the more aggressive team, attacking the rim to get to the line early and often. They finished with a 52 to 31 advantage in foul shots, a disparity that became more pronounced when you factor in that Lyceum made 73 percent or 38 of those freebies, while CSB converted only 18 or 58 percent. 
• Despite said edge, the game was still back and forth from start to finish, with 15 deadlocks and 17 lead changes. The biggest lead of the game was just six, held twice by Lyceum at the start of the fourth and overtime.

The Other Names :

• Both Michael Pate and Carlo Lastimosa turned in flawed performances, missing out on opportunities to win the game. The two were a combined 1 for 12 from outside the arc, and the Pirates were well aware of it, giving up the outside shot, especially to Pate, numerous times. Lastimosa also managed just splits at the foul line in the fourth, and in OT. Two made shots at the former could have put the game away, as it would have formed a two-shot advantage, while the latter would have made the deficit just two points instead of three. 
• Jan Tan managed a 12-12 performance, but was limited to only 24 minutes due to a combination of foul trouble, and a desire by head coach Richard Del Rosario to match up with the tiny Pirates. 

NCAA Picking Record: 64-23-3

NCAA S87: LPU vs CSB

History Lesson:
Playing without a flu-stricken Carlo Lastimosa, the short-handed CSB Blazers were ambushed by guest team Lyceum, in their NCAA debut. Up 38-30 at the half, Ian dela Paz and Mark Romero pulled CSB to within two out of the break, but Chris Cayabyab stymied that rally and then Allan Santos took over in the fourth quarter with 13 of his 19 points, handing the Pirates their first victory, 75-63. (Recap here) 

What's at Stake:

• Both these squads are currently at 6-11. A win ties the victor with the 7-11 MIT Cardinals for fifth, which would allow the head coach to say, "Hey, we finished a slot out of the Final Four. We can build on this!" 

LPU Stat to Watch : Lyceum's schedule gave them San Beda and San Sebastian consecutively, which led to predictably horrible results, as the Pirates were held to just 67.5 points and 32.68 percent shooting. That stands in direct contrast to Benilde's defense, which concedes 77.94 points and 41.88 percent from the field, so the Pirates ought to be able to score on the Blazers.
LPU Player to Watch : Chris Cayabyab had a superb debut against CSB, with his best shooting game of the season, 20 points on 7 of 11 shooting. He'll look to reprise that in the final game of the season after getting held to just seven points, 3 of 17, against San Sebastian.

CSB Stat to Watch : As a revamped team, playing without their best player, the season opener of the Blazers had them turning the ball over 26 times, as they clearly hadn't gotten used to playing with one another. They've normed 16.81 mistakes since then, although they notched 25 against EAC in their last outing.
CSB Player to Watch : Sitting out the first game, Carlo Lastimosa was unable to engage Chris Cayabyab in a scoring duel, and though his numbers are down from his rookie of the year season last year, Lastimosa is still an explosive threat, especially if Jonathan Grey won't play again.

Prediction: LPU Pirates

NCAA S87: EAC vs JRU

History Lesson:
While sniper Nate Matute was out with a groin injury, it sure didn't seem like JRU needed him to disarm the Generals, outmatching them early by getting out in transition. Forcing 32 turnovers, the Heavy Bombers scored 30 turnover points, as John Villarias and John Lopez won this one easily, 76-60. (Recap here)

What's at Stake:

• At 8-9, JRU has already clinched the fourth seed in the playoffs and can't catch up with Letran. They can however, enter the Final Four with momentum on their side, and a .500 record if they win this one.
• Currently 4-13, EAC is trying to make history repeat itself. They finished Season 86 tied with Perpetual Help, and a win would allow the Generals to drag a team down to the bottom with them, so to speak. Should they lose though, they'll have last place all to themselves.

EAC Stat to Watch : EAC is in last place when it comes to free throw attempts and makes, but they should have plenty of opportunities to go to the line given the physical nature of JRU's defense. They'll just have to hope they convert more than their normal 61.54 percent clip, which is in the bottom half of the NCAA.
EAC Player to Watch : Jan Jamon will look to close out the season with his third straight 20-point game. Averaging 23.5 points on 52.94 percent shooting, the EAC coaching staff has to concede that riding a sharpshooting Jamon might be their best bet at getting a "W."

JRU Stat to Watch : JRU will look to get a repeat of the first game by forcing the Generals into turnovers, for easy points. That may not be a problem, considering how the ball-handling situation of that team has actually deteriorated. EAC gave up 15.1 turnover points on average in the first round, but it bloated up to 19 in the second round.
JRU Player to Watch : Jeckster Apinan has been JRU's best rebounder, hauling down double-digit boards in nine of the team's 17 games. With EAC lacking ceiling outside of Claude Cubo, Apinan ought to dominate his match-up, and thus, the interior.

Prediction: JRU Heavy Bombers