NCAA S87: MIT vs CSB

History Lesson:
Although it didn't show in the rebounding category, the Mapua Cardinals sorely missed 6'7" Yousef Taha in this game. Despite a 54-35 rebounding advantage, the Cardinals were suckered into playing the style the Blazers wanted, hoisting up 41 triples in the face of the CSB zone, making just eight. And when the time came for Mapua to make a trey to force overtime, Josan Nimes, after much dilly-dallying, missed, allowing Benilde to escape with the win. Big man Jan Tan led CSB with 15 markers, while Allan Mangahas' double-double of 10 points and 12 assists went wasted. (Recap here)

What's at Stake:

• The Cardinals wrapped up a highly successful summer with a lot of hype as a dark horse team to challenge San Beda and San Sebastian for NCAA supremacy. Instead, what happened was a disappointing 3-6 first round, with two of their three wins decided by buzzer-beaters. If the Cardinals are to live up to the expectations they set in the off-season, they need to start winning, and winning convincingly.
• The Blazers find themselves in the thick of things at 4-5, tied with guest team Lyceum for the fourth playoff spot. This might be the latest Benilde has been in a playoff hunt in a very long time, given the past failures of this program, but this whole thing will be a forgotten footnote in history if they flame out in the second round.  

MIT Stat to Watch : Here's why Benilde should not fear too much the return of Yousef Taha and the Mapua ceiling, the Cardinals don't maximize their height advantage anyway, opting instead to lead the league in triples attempted (23.22 a game) and made (6.44), while being last in the league in two-pointers attempted (40.67). Mapua's coaching staff ought to realize this and make more attempts to move the ball inside for scoring opportunities, especially if CSB goes into a zone again.

MIT Player to Watch : Josan Nimes got a career-high 21 points against the zone defense of Perpetual Help, not by chucking up shots, but by being the only one willing to attack the rim. If Nimes can keep that attitude alive in this game, then odds are good that the Blazers will be forced to abandon the zone and put someone like Paolo Taha on him, or else risk him going off for 20+ points again.

CSB Stat to Watch : Outmatched by big men patrolling the paint? Get them out of there by attacking the rim and drawing fouls from them. With guys like Paolo Taha and Jonathan Grey in the line-up, the Blazers shoot the second-most free throws per game, with 30.22 attempts, of which they make a league-best 19.33 charities. If they can force Taha or Mark Sarangay to sit in favor of someone like Jason Pascual or Jason Cantos, things get a lot easier inside for them.

CSB Player to Watch : Against the EAC Generals, Jonathan Grey got extended minutes due to Jan Tan being ejected from the game. Because Tan will have to sit out a one-game suspension, Grey will likely see additional time again, and why not, after he posted 17 points and 12 rebounds in Tan's absence. Grey is so adept at scoring that he actually leads his team in field goal percentage at 58 percent, which means he ought to have a field day against the so-so Mapua defense.

Prediction: MIT Cardinals

NCAA S87: CSJL vs AU

History Lesson:
The Letran Knights used a 24-8 second quarter to jump ahead of the Arellano Chiefs for good, accounting for the game's one and only lead change, taking control from that point forward and earning an 88-70 win. Five Knights scored in double-figures, led by Jam Cortes who had 16. Solid fundamentals helped the Knights earn the victory, as they tallied a 49 to 33 rebounding advantage, and posted 20 assists. It was more than enough to handle last season's Mythical Five selection Andrian Celada, who finished with 22 points. (Recap here)

What's at Stake:

• The goal for the 7-2 Letran Knights in the second round is two-fold: keep in step with San Sebastian and San Beda, and when the time comes, beat them to move on up. In order to do that though, they can't be caught unawares by lesser teams like Arellano, which could use a nice upset win to vault up the standings.
• Knotted at 3-6 with the Mapua Cardinals and the JRU Heavy Bombers, the Arellano Chiefs want big wins against the teams ahead, especially those up there in the standings, but getting them won't be so easy, as the previously 3-6 EAC showed, when they were beaten down by the San Sebastian Stags.

CSJL Stat to Watch : The Knights lead the league in offensive rebounds and second-chance points in such a big way that it's probably not even funny. They're the only team with offensive rebounds in the 20's range with 25.11, with they use with good effect to get 12.67 second-chance points. As we know, Arellano relies heavily on a zone, and teams have a tendency to give up offensive rebounds while in a zone. That means, second, third, even fourth chances on single possessions would not be out of the ordinary in this game.

CSJL Player to Watch : The player behind all these offensive rebounds happens to be number three right now in the MVP race, 6'7" center Raymond Almazan. Letran's starting center averages 10.8 rebounds a game, 5.8 on the offensive end, often the source for his 8.4 points a game. He also happens to swat 3.4 shots a game. Unless the Chiefs decide to keep a guy on him at all times, expect Almazan to be the beneficiary of Arellano's 2-3 zone.

AU Stat to Watch : In recent games, the Chiefs have worked to balance out their scoring between the starters and the bench, moving Mark Doligon to the starting line-up and bumping Vergel Zulueta and Gerald Lapuz to the reserves, among other moves. So far it's worked, going from a 62-11 split in the first seven games, to a 39.5-28 mix. That at least means there will always be some scoring pressure on the floor, without Coach Isaac exhausting his starters.

AU Player to Watch : Prince Caperal's numbers have been in flux all season, despite keeping a solid hold on the starting center job. He's had highs of 17 points and 10 rebounds, as well as lows of 0 points and three boards, making him difficult to figure out. Caperal is the best player they can put on Almazan, and they'll need his height to fight for rebounds. If he pulls another disappearing act though, the Chiefs will be sunk.

Prediction: CSJL Knights

UAAP/NCAA Power Rankings: Week 6 of 2011

The unified UAAP/NCAA Power Rankings throws everything into a blender, hits the button, and ducks as it first mashes up, and then sorts out all 18 teams of both leagues. Among other factors, the panel of one takes into consideration: the quality of opponents played in the past week, how the team fared against those opponents, whether or not a team is on a roll, be it an uphill or downhill, and other factors like injuries or internal disarray.

The NCAA's first round is finally over! Huzzah! As a result, this week's power rankings deal with the fallout of the titanic SSCR-SBC match, and the latest happenings in UAAP, which include FEU regaining ground, and DLSU losing it.

One Day Later: SBC vs UPHSD, SSCR vs EAC

SBC 69 - UPHSD 55
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : Kyle Pascual had a nice day dominating the interior, finishing the game with 15 points on 5 of 7 shooting. He also had 10 boards and four blocks, as the "bigs" of Perpetual Help couldn't keep the Red Lions out of the paint.

SBC Positives :

• After getting just 10 fastbreak points against the Stags, San Beda managed 15 versus the Altas, close to their 15.78 average entering the second round. 
• The veteran teamwork of the Red Lions showed, doubling the assists of Perpetual Help, 22-11.

SBC Negatives :

• San Beda's defense allowed the Altas to catch up twice, getting to within six and three points on two separate times before the Red Lions renewed their focus. Such comebacks are easy to deal with when you're playing the Altas, but probably not when you're up against a Letran or a San Sebastian.
• Coach Lim may have inserted his third stringers too early, sending in guys like Ryusei Koge and Paolo Pontejos at the latter part of the second quarter. As a result, San Beda wasn't able to pull away by a lot, giving Perpetual Help room to mount their comebacks. 
• Garvo Lanete's three-point shot continued to be off, as he finished 1 of 8 from beyond the arc. He at least helped in other categories, grabbing six boards and dealing out five assists (though he also committed four turnovers).

UPHSD Positives :

• The Altas managed to stay close to the Red Lions until the end, thanks in part to putting together some good numbers, hitting their second most triples in a game this season (nine) and grabbing their second most offensive boards (17). 
• Despite the lack of size, Perpetual outscored the Red Lions on second-chance points, 14 to 9 and grabbed one more offensive carom, 17 to16.
• Jaycee Asuncion came up big in limited minutes, scoring 15 points in 15 minutes, hitting 4 for 5 from beyond the arc.

UPHSD Negatives :

•  Perpetual Help managed just six points in the first quarter, a season-low for any team this season.
• Jett Vidal was once again almost more of a burden than a help. He finished with nine points, three rebounds and two assists, but he also led the team in turnovers in this game with four, and was a miserable 1 for 12 from downtown.

SSCR 99 - EAC 63
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : Calvin Abueva had what is probably his most efficient game of the season, finishing with 34 points in 34 minutes on 14 of 22 shooting, 5 of 7 from the free throw line. Then he went and added 14 rebounds, six assists a steal and a very rare, very awesome lone turnover.

SSCR Positives :

• Ian Sangalang posted some huge numbers too, getting 18 points and a whopping 25 rebounds, 15 on the offensive end. Those latter two figures both happen to be highs for the season as well. 
• How complete was the Stags' domination on the boards? Sangalang by himself matched the entire EAC squad's rebounding totals. The Generals also got just six offensive rebounds, compared to 24 by the Stags, leading to a 14-0 advantage in second-chance points. Their 61-25 rebounding differential also led to a 21-10 domination in fastbreak points. 
• Each player fielded in by head coach Topex Robinson scored at least one point in the game.

SSCR Negatives :

• Defensively, the Stags' intensity seemed to come and go. It didn't exist in the first quarter, and faded in and out late in the third and early in the fourth quarter. 
• San Sebastian still has a turnover problem, making 18 errors despite EAC not really being known as a team that forces errors. Luckily for them, the Generals couldn't capitalize, getting just eight turnover points. 
• Ronald Pascual seemed to have an off-game, scoring 16 on 6 of 13 shooting, to go with six rebounds and two assists. He must have still been exhausted from Friday's match against the Red Lions.

EAC Positives :

• Four Generals managed to score in double-digits, with Claude Cubo leading the way with 15 markers. 

EAC Negatives :

• Emilio Aguinaldo is known for their one on one play, and it showed, as they tallied just 10 assists in this game, while San Sebastian had 22 in the same category.
• So inept were the EAC big men that Dhan Diolanto and Rafael Sanchez combined for just two rebounds. Claude Cubo led the team with four, while Russell Yaya had two boards. 
• I'm not sure why head coach Gerry Esplana chose to go with Renz Juliano, and Roy Villegas instead of someone like Igee King, or giving more minutes to Jan Jamon (17 played in this game). Neither were very productive though in their stints on the floor. 

NCAA Picking Record: 35-12

One Day Later: NU vs UP, ADU vs FEU

They jump higher - they also score more and defend better. Sorry, UP. (pic source)

NU 65 - UP 43
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : Lebron Parks or Bobby Ray James had his usual sort of statline against mediocre teams,  22 points on 8 of 12 shooting, 5 of 7 from the line, seven rebounds, four assists and a block. If only he could go up against Miggy Maniego and Moriah Gingerich more often, hmm?

NU Positives :

• NU's defense held UP to just 13 points in the first half,  6 of 31 from the field, with no free throws and just a single triple. They were then 11 of 32 from that point on, hitting one more triple, and going 6 for 7 from the stripe.
• Parks is starting to look for Emmanuel Mbe now down low, as when you drive down the lane and the defense collapses on you, finding your wide open big man is usually a good idea. Three of Parks' four assists were to Mbe in this game, as the big guy finished with a double-double of 17 points and 13 rebounds.

NU Negatives :

• Aside from Parks and Mbe though, there really wasn't much offense from anyone else, with Joseph Terso leading the list with seven points. Coach Altamirano freely admitted that he has very little firepower off the bench, but in theory, guys like Denice Villamor, Jul-ashri Ignacio and Cedrick Labing-isa out to be able to put points on the board, with or without Parks' involvement. 
• As bad as UP's seven-point second quarter though, NU scored just 10 in the same period,  attempting one more shot and making two more field goals. Versus any other team, that would have been a catch-up quarter.

UP Positives :

• They didn't lose by 40 points.

UP Negatives :

•  There's not a lot going on with the UP offense right now. Locking down on Silungan and Manuel will often do the trick since Montecastro is a beast in transition, but not so in the halfcourt, and when Gamboa isn't knocking down triples then he isn't much of a threat. The Maroons are trying to free up their guys by running the defender through screens but the screeners must not be doing such a good job because the end result is usually the same: a contested jumper with 2 or 3 seconds left on the shot clock.
• If only UP could bring back the Mike Silungan who shot 41 percent from three-point, 47 percent from the field and replace the current Mike Silungan who averages 16 percent from long-range and 31.91 percent overall.

One-man army - Alex Nuyles couldn't carry his team versus the Tams (pic source)

FEU 62 - ADU 61
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : Aldrech Ramos turned in his most dominant effort of the season, winding up with 18 points on 9 of 12 shooting, 10 rebounds, two assists and a steal. The national team forward simply could not be stopped by the Adamson big men, shredding Eric Camson and Rodney Brondial.

ADU Positives :

• Furious rally attempts by the Falcons at the end of the third and fourth periods showed that this is not a squad that is just going to roll over. 
• Adamson ruled the boards, getting 44 rebounds and 20 offensive rebounds to 34 and 10 respectively by the Tams. They also wound up with more assists, steals, and blocks, and spent more time at the charity stripe, going 18 for 25 while FEU was just 8 for 10.

ADU Negatives :

• Alex Nuyles' decision to go for a two-point shot instead of a triple in the dying seconds confused me, especially since they had so many fouls to give still and were not in an immediate penalty situation. It also didn't help that after he converted, the Falcons took their sweet time giving up those last three fouls, trying to go for steals instead of putting a Tamaraw on the line earlier.
• Not much to talk about aside from Nuyles on offense too. Eric Camson was basically a non-threat with his mid-range jumper not falling (3 for 8 from the field). Lester Alvarez had one of those games where all he did was throw up triples. Reserve forwards Harry Petilos and Allen Etrone went 0-for as well. 
• I'm surprised they brought back Roider Cabrera in the fourth after the timeout and actually let him take a shot ice-cold. Though he started, they weren't looking for Cabrera on the on-set like in their game versus NU, instead, taking him out quickly to see if Jan Colina was going to be okay (he wasn't). 

FEU Positives :

• X-factor for FEU in this game? Terrence Romeo, who provided 14 points, seven rebounds and five assists. Had he just stuck to his averages entering this game, six points, 
• The interior defense was lacking for the Falcons, as the Tamaraws shot 50 percent from inside the arc. In the paint, the number shoots up to 59.38 percent, or 19 of 32 shots, for 38 points.
• FEU held Adamson to just 3 of 17 shooting from outside the arc, their worse percentage there this season. Overall the Falcons were just 20 for 63 from the field, their worst rate since their season opener against Ateneo.

FEU Negatives :

• Romeo gives, but he also takes away, committing a team-high five turnovers, including a crucial wayward pass to Alex Nuyles that cut the lead down to a single-point. Had the Tams lost, Romeo would have been dragged over coals in Morayta for giving away a won ballgame again. 
• FEU had just 10 free throws, converting eight. Conspiracy theorists should take note: since they shot 25 charities versus UP in the first round, the amount of attempts FEU has gotten at the line have been: 9, 12, 8, 10.

UAAP Picking Record: 28-10

NCAA S87: SSCR vs EAC

History Lesson:
Posting leads as high as 41-20, the San Sebastian Golden Stags took their foot off the gas pedal, with head coach Topex Robinson sending in his reserves at the latter part of the third quarter. Emilio Aguinaldo College refused to give up though, cutting the lead down to as little as a solitary point, 67-66, before the return of the SSC-R starters recreated the separation and got the 77-70 win. The Stags' veterans all scored in double figures, with Ronald Pascual leading the way with 19 points. On the other hand, three Generals scored 16 points, Claude Cubo, Jan Jamon and Joshua Torralba, but they got precious little from their bench, aside from Igee King. (Recap here)

What's at Stake:

• Now boasting the league's best record at 9-0, the San Sebastian Golden Stags will look to keep their immaculate record, especially with the teams at the lower end of the standings.
• The Emilio Aguinaldo College Generals find themselves in a volatile place, tied at  3-6 with three other teams, JRU, AU, and MIT. That means a loss could set them back by a lot, while a win boosts them quick above the fray. 

SSCR Stat to Watch : You won't find a better scoring trio than what the Stags possess, with Calvin Abueva, Ronald Pascual and Ian Sangalang combining for 56.3 points a game. But beyond those three, the other players norm just 23 points a game. If their bench steps up, it'll be hard to stop them. If they don't though, you get a result similar to the first encounter between these two teams, with the "Big Three" needing to bail the rest of the team out.
SSCR Player to Watch : Ian Sangalang found himself limited in their last game versus San Beda, held in check by the Red Lions bigs and cramps to finish with just nine points and eight rebounds. Against the Generals though, there's not really a lot of interior defense beyond Claude Cubo, so Sangalang should figure to dominate.

EAC Stat to Watch : The Generals are tied for most rebounds given up to their opponent, allowing opposing teams to pluck down 46.67 boards a game, and are second-worst at conceding offensive rebounds, with 17.8 a game. That's going to be a problem when faced with guys like Sangalang and Calvin Abueva, who can dominate the glass.
EAC Player to Watch : Claude Cubo is the Generals' leading rebounder, plucking down 7.1 boards a game. He can still be easily handled though, as JRU and Letran were able to hold him to three and two rebounds respectively. That means, if the Stags really want to, they can practically erase him from the scene if they put someone to box him out on ever possession, leaving the Generals' guard corps to fend for themselves.

Prediction: SSCR Golden Stags

NCAA S87: SBC vs UPHSD

History Lesson:
In the opening game of the 87th season of the NCAA, the defending champion Red Lions set out to prove that they could be just as dominant without Sudan Daniel, and they accomplished just that, blowing out the host team Perpetual Help Altas by 30 points, 82-52. It certainly didn't help the Altas' cause that, in addition to losing their two big men prior to the games being played, Paul Nuilan and Marlon Gomez, Perpetual lost two players during the course of the battle, Jeorge Allen and Anthony Paulino. On the other side, Rome Dela Rosa sizzled, scoring 15 points in 15 minutes on 6 of 7 shooting, while big men Jake Pascual and Dave Marcelo posted twin double-doubles. (Recap here)

What's at Stake:

• The 26-game win streak of the Red Lions (8-1) is now over, having fallen late against the Golden Stags. That may not be such a bad thing, as the burden of carrying a streak can wear down on a team. In any case, San Beda will raring to show that though they may not be undefeated, they are still pretty dominant, and they get a great match-up in Perpetual Help to show off that fact.
• The cellar-dwelling Altas (1-8) have seen more than their share of bad luck, what with Jeorge Allen getting injured again. As early as now, the post-season is out of the question, and so it becomes a matter of how many losses they can inflict on other teams to prevent them from getting an easy road to the Final Four.

SBC Stat to Watch : San Beda turned in some surprisingly poor numbers in their previous game, chief among them, an inability to shoot the ball, going 2 of 13 from beyond the arc, and 21 of 54 from two-point land, both season lows. Luckily, Perpetual Help has an awful defense, allowing opponents to shoot 35.23 percent from downtown, and a league-worst 51.4 percent from inside the arc. That means it'll be easy for the Red Lions to regain their groove.
SBC Player to Watch : Jake Pascual flashed all-around numbers, finishing with seven points, eight rebounds, five assists and five blocks. He'll likely dominate the interior of this game as well, with or without Jeorge Allen in the paint.

UPHSD Stat to Watch : Lacking an ability to defend properly, it's not uncommon for the Altas to have to foul opponents and send them to the line. As a result, Perpetual Help commits on average  of 27.1 fouls a game, a league-high. That may not a good idea against the Red Lions, who are fourth in the league with free throw accuracy, shooting 65.3 percent from the line.
UPHSD Player to Watch : Jett Vidal continues to lead the Perpetual Help Altas in scoring, with an 11.7 average. The problem though is how inefficient his numbers can be at times, topping 30 percent from the field just three times this season (albeit he hit the 50 percent mark twice). Vidal has already felt the wrath of San Beda's defense, shooting just 2 of 15 in their first round encounter, so he'll need to pick and choose his spots in this rematch.


Prediction: SBC Red Lions