UAAP S74: ADU vs UE

History Lesson:
The Soaring Falcons and Red Warriors split their season meetings last year. In the first encounter, a 69-56 affair that Adamson won, Alex Nuyles edged James Martinez in a duel of shooters, with the rest of Nuyles' fellows, specifically Eric Camson and Janus Lozada, mopping up the floor with Martinez's UE teammates, as even Paul Lee turned in a bad game. In the second round, Lee was once again a non-factor, but this time, so was Nuyles, and Martinez had friends in tow in the form of Lord Casajeros and Ken Acibar, helping the Warriors eke out the upset win, 71-63. The two teams also met in the summer Fil-Oil tournament, with Allen Etrone exploding for 16 points, to lead the Falcons to a 70-61 win.

ADU Storyline : After a narrow loss to the Ateneo Blue Eagles, the Falcons have refocused their energies to jumping out to a huge lead to start the game, and the early returns have been positive so far. A 25-11 first quarter versus FEU turned into a 78-59 win. Similarly, the Falcons were up 16-5 against UST in a game that was ultimately settled at 81-71. Adamson now allows the fewest first quarter points (12.33) and they've accomplished this with just straight-up defense, instead of steals like last season.
Stat to Watch : Adamson dominates the boards, allowing opponents the fewest total rebounds, 37, and fewest offensive rebounds, 12.33. It'll be interesting to see if they can contain UE in those departments, as the Red Warriors are second in rebounds per game with 49, and in offensive rebounds a game, with 18.5.
Player to Watch : Eric Camson has been an underrated source of Adamson's early success, coming off the bench to provide both scoring and rebounds. After posting just 6 points and 6 rebounds against Ateneo, Camson came back in a big way, norming 15.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in the past two games, while shooting 56% from the field. He'll be a tough match-up for any of UE's forwards as Camson easily outclasses them in nearly every statistic.

UE Storyline : Bit by bit, the Red Warriors are getting better, but the learning curve has been so steep that by the time they get good, it might be next season already! Versus Ateneo, UE managed to keep in step with the defending champions early on, but foul trouble eventually did them in. With almost every team taller than they are, UE will often find themselves in situations where a foul is the only option they have of stopping an easy two, putting them in a "damned if you, damned if you don't" position. Make him score from the line, or live to defend another day?
Stat to Watch : The Red Warriors find themselves dead last in offense, in points scored per game to be exact. They norm just 58 points an encounter, with opponents outscoring them by an average of 11.5 points. Adamson's ranked 4th in that category, with 70 points a game, a 12 point difference. Either the Red Warriors defense will have to be better, or someone needs to catch fire fast.
Player to Watch : After a cameo appearance versus FEU, RR De Leon got his baptism of fire as he tried to guard Greg Slaughter. Suffice to say, that didn't work out pretty well, as Slaughter finished with a double-double, but De Leon showed some flashes of brilliance, while finishing with 6 points and 6 rebounds. There's a chance he might see minutes again due to the presence of Austin Manyara and Jan Colina, but he's a long-term project for sure, joining other similar talents like Chris Javier and Roi Sumang. But if he can give a surprise or two, that might lead to an upset and a reversal of UE's fortunes.


Prediction: Adamson Soaring Falcons

NCAA S87: EAC vs MIT

History Lesson:
The Cardinals found the Generals easy prey last season, beating them handily in both rounds, 82-68 and 74-65. The two teams also met each other in the Fil-Oil Preseason Tournament, with the Cardinals also coming out on top, 88-74, behind a double-double performance by Yousef Taha, 16 points and 13 rebounds.

EAC Storyline : In a battle between two upstart guest teams, the Generals were able to pull off the late win against the Pirates, 73-67, behind big performances by veterans Claude Cubo and Jan Jamon. Unfortunately, the loss came at a price, a one-game suspension for striking Onofore Napize at the start of the fourth quarter. Cubo is EAC's best post player and a powerful rebounder down low, so his loss against a team with quite a ceiling, will definitely be felt.
Stat to Watch : The Generals were able to contain Lyceum from beyond the arc, holding them to just 1 of 22 from beyond the arc. That perimeter defense ought to come in handy against Mapua, who are second in the league in three-pointers made per game with 5.8 triples.
Player to Watch : EAC will turn to rookie Jolas Paguia to fill in Cubo's minutes, though aside from their height, the two play different games, with Cubo more of an inside presence compared to the former Baby Tam's perimeter game. But while he had an impressive 22 point, 9 rebound debut versus Arellano, his output has dropped sharply in succeeding games, as have his minutes. He will get the opportunity again to contribute, but what he does with that opportunity is not so certain.

MIT Storyline : Who would have thought before the season that the Mapua Cardinals would be the last team without a win in the NCAA? Nobody, least of all the Cardinals themselves. The team was visibly fired up last Friday versus JRU, but as the fourth quarter played out, panic began settling in and before you knew it, the team had choked away another win-able game. They catch a big break against EAC with Claude Cubo out, but the fact is, they've had winnable games before and didn't cash in. Because of that fact, can we assume that this one is in the books for MIT because they look better on paper? That hasn't worked out for them in their past four games!
Stat to Watch : The Cards find themselves outscored in the final period by a total of 83-48. No other stat means anything, aside from that one. When the fourth quarter rolls around, the Cardinals need to just take the ball strong to the rim and draw fouls. No more tentative ball movement that leads to 24 second shot clock violations, no more launching triples 4 feet away from three-point arc, just put your head down and drive.
Player to Watch : Josan Nimes started out the first half strong versus JRU, dropping 19 points on them in a variety of ways, but it turned out that all his shooting had left him nothing in the tank for the second half, as the rookie from the USA finished with 0 points from halftime onward. Nimes is a notorious streak shooter, that's why it's important that he's hot going into the fourth, so that at least one guy isn't afraid to try to put the team on his back if needed.

Prediction: MIT Cardinals

NCAA S87: CSJL vs CSB

History Lesson:
The Letran Knights beat out the St. Benilde Blazers twice last season, but in contrasting styles. Their first encounter was a 74-50 affair that saw Letran use a 21-9 third quarter to put away CSB, combined with a 12-2 advantage in second chance points. Round two was much different, as the Blazers stuck close all throughout the game, but Kevin Alas was clutch at the end, finding Jam Cortes for an and-one play that won the game for them, 72-69.

Letran Storyline : The Knights picked up loss #1 in Season 87 as they couldn't execute and score properly once Kevin Alas fouled out. Prior to that happening, the Knights had actually stayed in step with the Stags, overturning a huge deficit nearly all of the way, getting to within three points with 7:48 left. That actually bodes well for this team, considering that they weren't able to gain an edge in turnover or fastbreak points, normally their main source of scoring.
Stat to Watch : The Knights were impressive on the glass, as the troika of Jonathan Belorio, Jam Cortes and Raymond Almazan outplayed the bigger San Sebastian team. All in all, Letran got 60 rebounds, 33 on the offensive end. Playing a Benilde team that's roughly the same height, the Knights ought to have the advantage on the boards, if they play like they did against the Stags.
Player to Watch : Jam Cortes is one of the best power forwards in the league, despite lacking a height advantage to fall back on. Currently averaging 10 points and 11 rebounds, Cortes ought to dominate his match-up against whichever CSB big they field against him, be it Jan Tan, Ian Dela Paz or Tim McCoy, due to experience weighing heavily in his favor.

Benilde Storyline : "So close and yet so far" has to be what the Blazers have in their minds going on loop right now, though they'll try their best to put the 79-78 loss to SBC on the backburner. What's most frustrating is probably how well the team executed down the stretch, something they had been lacking in prior games, save for their one win against the Cardinals. With all of that, there's some questions as to how the Blazers will come out for this game. Will they have the same intensity they confronted SBC with? Or will they be in a funk, and watch Letran run all over them? 
Stat to Watch : Benilde totaled just 16 turnovers against San Beda, a large reason why the Red Lions weren't able to get their running game going when points were becoming hard to get by. If the ballhandlers like Luis Sinco, Carlo Lastimosa and Anton Altamirano can survive the press, odds are good that the Blazers can pull this upset off.
Player to Watch : Tim McCoy started the season slow, but his game has been ramping up as of late, culminating with an 8 point, 7 rebound performance against the Red Lions frontline in 30 minutes of play. Though the opposition will be smaller when they face Letran, they'll be no less potent in the post, so McCoy will have his work cut out for him still.

Prediction: CSJL Knights

UAAP/NCAA Power Rankings: Week 2 of 2011

The unified UAAP/NCAA Power Rankings throws everything into a blender, hits the button, and ducks as it first mashes up, and then sorts out all 18 teams of both leagues. Among other factors, the panel of one takes into consideration: the quality of opponents played in the past week, how the team fared against those opponents, whether or not a team is on a roll, be it an uphill or downhill, and other factors like injuries or internal disarray.

Under the cut: A new #1, a new #18, movement on all fronts!

One Day Later: LPU vs SSCR, JRU vs UPHSD

SSCR 82 - LPU 57
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : The Lyceum Pirates committed the cardinal error of giving Abueva space to start his dribble before making his move and paid dearly for it, as "The Beast" registered 28 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals in just 26 minutes, shooting 10 for 16 from the field. It was the fourth straight double-double in as many appearances for Abueva, who continues to pad the stat sheets, making him a clear-cut favorite for MVP, if he doesn't mess up.

LPU Stat to Watch : The three-point shot abandoned the Pirates, as the stout defense by the Stags held them to just 3 of 21 attempts from beyond the arc. Unable to create spacing for themselves, the Stags were able to clog the paint, where their superior height caused problems for Lyceum.
LPU Player to Watch : Chris Cayabyab did in fact draw the attention of Abueva, and the sharpshooter turned cold, finishing with just 9 points, his first sub-double digit game of the season. Shooting 2 of 10 from the field, 1 of 6 from downtown, Cayabyab even had once of his treys sent back at him by Abueva. He at least finished with 6 assists, drawing enough attention to get teammates open looks.

SSCR Stat to Watch : Despite slowing down the pace to prevent fast break opportunities for the Pirates, the Stags still got to 27 turnovers, with Abueva having 6, and big man Sangalang tallying 4. That said, it didn't come back to haunt them as they held Lyceum to just one turnover point thanks to excellent transition defense.
SSCR Player to Watch : Pinatubo Trio aside, Lyle Antipuesto was the next highest scorer for the Stags, finishing with five points, three coming from a triple, off the bench in 20 minutes.

Other stats:

• The Pirates got 0 fast break points on just 5 attempts, as the Stags shut down their running game by slowing down the tempo and forcing Lyceum to play half-court. 
• San Sebastian held Lyceum to just 27% shooting, 20 of 73 from the field, while shooting nearly 50% themselves, 30 of 61, though they were only 1 of 7 from downtown. 
• The Stags also finished with 10 more attempts from the stripe, 28 to 18, hitting 21 of them. 

UPHDS 79 - JRU 77
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : Jeorge Allen surprised everyone with his movie sequence-like return to the court, as the number of Altas who could take to the court was rapidly dwindling. Though he was still clearly limited, Allen gave 100%, fighting and boxing out the taller JRU big men, and scoring two huge  baskets, including the game-winning buzzer beater. His final stats, 4 points, 2 rebounds, 1 steal in 7 minutes, barely tell the story of how he lifted his teammates with his early return to play.

JRU Stat to Watch : The aggressive Heavy Bombers often got the Altas into the penalty situation first, but never really capitalized on it, due to their inability to hit free throws. Though they had double the trips to the line of Perpetual Help, 45 to 22, JRU only made 26 of the 25, for 58% (to be fair, UPHDS was also mediocre, 13 of 22, but JRU had more attempts)
JRU Player to Watch : Raycon Kabigting regressed in this game, scoring just 5 points on 2 of 11 shooting, making none of his six attempts from beyond the arc. Late in the game, it became clear that they were trying to get this guy going, running various screen plays to free him up, but he kept missing. By the second overtime, the Bombers should have abandoned the ploy and concentrated on getting their big guys the ball instead.

UPHDS Stat to Watch : The Altas finished the game shooting 37% from the field, up from their average of 31%. Prior to the overtime though, they managed just 53 points, lower than their average of 59.8 points a game, courtesy of a 7 point fourth quarter!
UPHDS Player to Watch : Chris Elopre didn't get on the score board that much, finishing with just 4 points on 2 of 8 shooting, but his presence in all three overtimes certainly helped stabilize the Altas late, helping fight off the ball pressure by quickly crossing halfcourt.

Other Stats:

• JRU committed more turnovers remarkably, 32 to 28, and as a result, UPHDS got more turnover points, 25 to 19. The two sides also didn't get a lot of fastbreaks, with the Altas edging the Heavy Bombers slightly in that category, 8 to 6.
• Despite a sizable height advantage, JRU had just one more offensive rebound than Perpetual Help, finishing 19 to 18. 
• JRU's big men troika of Ronnel Carampil, John Lopez and Jeckster Apinan scored 45 of their squad's 77 points and totaled 31 of their 53 rebounds, but the trio also committed 18 turnovers, more than half of their team's 32. 

NCAA Picking Record: 14-9

One Day Later: NU vs FEU, UST vs ADU

FEU 62 - NU 59
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : The insertion of 6'10" Christian Sentcheu into the middle of the FEU 2-3 zone was a gamechanger by head coach Bert Flores, as his presence inside was so intimidating that the Bulldogs opted to throw up long jumpers instead of driving in. The numbers even bare it out, as after attempting 13 perimeter shots and 15 shots in the paint in the first half, the numbers flipped drastically in the second half to 19 perimeter shots and only 9 shots in the paint for the latter half of the game. So while Sentcheu's line of 7 points, 3 rebounds, 2 blocks may not seem very exciting, his contributions go deeper than the statistics.

NU Stat to Watch : Against a team that doesn't force a whole lot of turnovers, NU managed to make just 17 miscues, a decent number for collegiate ball. The Tams were able to take those 17 turnovers and score 15 turnover points, which is in line with what NU did, taking FEU's 16 turnovers and converting them into 13 turnover points.
NU Player to Watch : Gelo Alolino continues to take big shots and why not since he makes them? In just a 17 minute stint, Alolino went 5 of 9 from the field for 12 points, 8 coming in the second half. That includes 5 straight at the end of the third that made it 54-49, NU, with 51 seconds left in the quarter, and then a triple with 7:23 left in the fourth to give NU a two-possession lead, 57-53.

FEU Stat to Watch : It's been a constant theme of Coach Flores' post-game interviews: rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. He probably went to sleep happy last night then as his team lorded over the rebounding stat for all but one quarter, finishing with 48 to just 27 by NU. He'll no doubt be quite please as well with the fact that the Tams pulled down 21 of those on the offensive end, tripling what NU got in that category. Only Mbe had a decent showing in the rebounding totals, finishing with 8, 3 offensive. Even Parks was quiet, getting just one offensive rebound in addition to four defensive ones.
FEU Player to Watch : Coach Flores opted to go with various defenders on Parks, instead of just one main stopper, cycling in guys like Chris Tolomia, JR Cawaling, Gryann Mendoza, and Terrence Romeo, but the guy who got the most minutes covering him was Ping Exciminiano, and the "defense by committee" approach worked out well. Parks finished with his lowest output, 11 points, and Exciminiano had another all-around game, 5 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and a block.

Other Stats:

• The difference in offensive rebounds translated to second chance points, where FEU was a dominant 11 to 2.
• Parks took just 7 field goal attempts in the entire game. 3 came in the final quarter, and all of them were triples. NU has to use him better, setting some screens for him, maybe posting him up, or even running pick and rolls for him and Mbe.

ADU 81 - UST 71
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game : After sitting out much of the third with foul trouble, Janus Lozada picked right where he left off in the first half, where he finished with 12 points, totaling 9 in the final quarter and made sure UST wasn't going to launch any comebacks. Playing just 22 minutes, the fifth-year guard had 21 points on 7 of 9 shooting, plus four rebounds and two assists. He also did a pretty good job on Kevin Ferrer, preventing the rookie from having a big night. 

UST Stat to Watch : A big performance from rookie big man Karim Abdul (13 points, 10 rebounds), helped UST's rebounding by a lot. Though they were blowed out early, the Tigers managed to finish with just three less rebounds than the Falcons, and inched ahead of them by one in the offensive rebound category. They also allowed just 2 second chance points from the Falcons.
UST Player to Watch : A combination of Lester Alvarez and Jerick Canada shut down Jeric Fortuna, allowing just 8 points from the fiery floor general, including critically, no triples in three tries. Fortuna added 5 rebounds and 4 assists, but was unable to save the Tigers in the end, like he had done in previous games.

ADU Stat to Watch : A large part of Adamson's success in this game came by way of how they defended the perimeter, allowing just 2 triples in 14 tries by the Growling Tigers. Including all shots not in the paint, the Tigers were just 6 of 25, as Adamson made UST take it inside, where the Falcons had the advantage.
ADU Player to Watch : Another strong start for Alex Nuyles meant another strong start for the Falcons, as Nuyles scored 8 of his 16 points in the first quarter, to power Adamson to a 16-2 start that knocked the wind out of UST early on. Nuyles was hot from beyond the arc, finishing 4/6, and he also had 6 rebounds and 3 assists.

Other Stats:

• The Falcons shot 8 of 20 from beyond the arc for 40 percent three-point shooting, their best downtown performance of the young season.
• Kevin Ferrer took 8 of UST's 14 triples, and made just two of them, finishing with 9 points.
• Jeric Teng started the game with three turnovers, throwing the ball to teammates who weren't there, forcing Coach Pido Jarencio to bench him temporarily. Those would be his only turnovers of the game,

UAAP Picking Record: 10-4

NCAA 87: JRU vs UPHSD

 History Lesson:
The hard-luck Perpetual Help Altas lost both their encounters to the JRU Heavy Bombers last season. Firepower was often the difference maker, as in their first encounter last July 16, 2010, when JRU's five double-digit scorers (Alex Almario, JR Bulangis, Marvin Hayes, John Lopez, and Nchotu Njei) overwhelmed the three double-digit scorers that UPHSD threw out (Jeorge Allen, Justine Alano and Arnold Danganan), 78-62. That same math applied as well in their round two meet on the 25th of August, 2010, a 66-55 win for JRU. Once again, the Heavy Bombers had more scorers in double-digits, this time four, Nate Matute, Raycon Kabigting, John Montemayor, Almario again, compared to just two by the Altas, Jeorge Allen and Jett Vidal. 

JRU Storyline : The Heavy Bombers find themselves at.500 after a 0-2 start, thanks to the latest epic collapse by the Mapua Cardinals. Part of the reason for the early struggles has been an adjustment to their style. Originally projected as a team that would force a lot of turnovers and hit triples, the latter part has instead been changed to "and score via our athletic forwards." That might change by the time Nate Matute returns from his groin injury, and if Raycon Kabigting and John Villarias continue to stroke it from downtown, but until those two things happen, this will continue to be a team powered by John Lopez, Ronnel Carampil and Jeckster Apinan.
Stat to Watch : The free throw line has been JRU's Achilles heel. They've had less attempts than their opponents in three out of their four games, and they've never broken the 60% mark for free throw shooting yet this season.
Player to Watch : Team captain Raycon Kabigting finally broke into double digits, scoring 14 on 50% shooting while adding 3 assists, and then taking them away with 3 turnovers. 6 of those points came on two triples, which is a big deal for a team that sorely lacks outside shooting. Can Kabigting keep it up? He has a prime opportunity against the hapless Altas, so it's likely he does...at least for this game.


UPHSD Storyline : After a punishing early schedule that saw the play four games from July 2 to July 11, Perpetual Help took a nice, long, two week break before returning to play. While it's unlikely for them come out of the "vacation" looking like a completely different team, it at least gives more time for Jeorge Allen to recover from his opening day injury, and for Jimwell Gican to adjust to being a head coach.
Stat to Watch : The Altas are dead last in points scored per game, and by a huge margin to boot, as they average 59.8 points, while the next closest squad, Mapua, norms 68.5 points. Part of the problem is that Perpetual can't seem to hit the broadside of a barn, with the worst percentage in the league, 31% field goal shooting, and the least amount of field goals made per game, 22.3. Will the up and down pace the Heavy Bombers play help? Or will it just increase the amount of the blowout? Unfortunately for the Altas, more like the latter.
Player to Watch : Here's hoping Chris Elopre will be ready for the press of JRU. Averaging 7.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists to 2.5 turnovers, he's been the closest thing to an actual co-contributor to this team alongside Jett Vidal. He managed just three turnovers against Letran, which is an encouraging sign, but with JRU on a high because of back to back wins, a desire to make it three in a row might equal some very aggressive defense.

Prediction: JRU Heavy Bombers