Burning Questions: DLSU vs NU 5/25/2011

#1 Which team has their rotation down?
Both teams have just completed their summer training programs, and with the UAAP less than two months away, one might think that the two sides' respective coaches now have a better idea of who's going to get minutes and who isn't. While that's not to say that we might not see some experimental line-ups, I just feel that, if you're still playing 13 to 14 players a game at this point in time, in a non-blowout situation, that might speak to some uncertainty within the organization.

#2 Which team can beat the zone?
La Salle has traditionally had difficulties facing zone defenses, while NU has suffered in this tournament against that same scheme. I feel strongly that the team that does more than just swing the ball around the perimeter, looking for a triple, has a better chance of winning this game, and doing well come UAAP time.

#3 Which team can get out in transition more?
You think La Salle basketball and you think scoring opportunities off their press, but there's a well-known basketball chestnut that says, "teams that love to press, hate to be pressed." We saw before the Archers left for Chicago Calvin Abueva streaking from one end of the court to the other, scoring at will against the smaller DLSU guards. Bobby Ray Parks is of a similar body type, but he's bigger, faster, and a better shooter. He could very well be in for a big game.

#4 Which team can control the boards more?
Last UAAP season, NU's Emmanuel Mbe posted a pair of impressive double-doubles, powering the Bulldogs to a season split versus the Archers. We're still uncertain if Mbe will play this game, but he'd be a game changer if he does. On the other hand, DLSU has added three big rookies to their frontcourt in Arnold Van Opstal, Ponso Gotladera, and Norbert Torres. Van Opstal in particular, has been a big boost, pulling down 5.3 in just 12.3 minutes. If both teams go to the zone a lot more, those boards become much more important and could lead to more transition opportunities

#5 Minor questions
Will the Archers suffer from their usual post-Chicago trip malaise? ...Will NU keep riding rookie Cedric Labing-isa or will we see the more experienced Joseph Terso? ...How is the DLSU morale after all the defections? ...Can Simon Atkins snap out of his slump? ...Is NU big man AJ Henson with the squad and is he eligible for this season? ...Can Kyle Neypes contribute anything to this NU team? ...Are the Archers seriously considering bringing back Ferdinand or James Mangahas to be their 16th man? ...Does NU still have a surprise recruit up their sleeve?

Of Chris's and Kris'

Some recent Twitter stupidity on my part, confusion over some Americans/Fil-Ams who at one point were ADMU-bound but are now not. So, to set everything straight:

• Anthony Hargrove is a 6'6" big man who used to play for TIP, but now isn't, was supposed to go to ADMU, but is now MIA
• William Porter is a 6'3"/6'2" SF in the slasher mold who also used to play for TIP, but now isn't, was supposed to go to ADMU, was rumored to be headed to MIT, but somebody told me "They might just be confusing him with [former NU Bulldog] Joseph Eriobu." 
• Kris Porter is a 6'4" big man who transferred here from Cebu to play his senior year for Ateneo High. He currently has averages of 13.67 points and 7.67 rebounds over 25 minutes in three Fil-Oil Pre-season Tournament games. He's also seen as the most likely Eaglet to be immediately called up to Team A in S75, imho. 
• Chris Newsome is a 6'2" Fil-Am transferee from New Mexico Highlands University, a D-II school in the American NCAA. He's eligible for S75, and will probably try to fill the shoes that will be left by Kirk Long.  Here's a nice, recent article about him courtesy of his hometown paper.

I think that clears things up quite well right? 

S73: Who's Most Productive?

The second in a series of posts looking at last season's players through the eyes of stats, as put forth by the site PopcornMachine.net. Part 1, HelpValue, can be found here.

The next metric we're going to use to evaluate last season's UAAP players is called ProductivityValue. The equation to get that number is:

prod = (points + hv) / min

Here's what that number means:

"This is an average of how much the player contributed per minute. So a value of 1.00 means that, on average, the player had a point, rebound, assist, steal, or block, for every minute he was in the game, without making a turnover." 

Now that we know what we're looking at, let's see who had the best ProductivityValue

The top 20 players of last season, based on PV

Once again, we see that Ateneo boasted six players who can be considered "very productive," based on their average performances. FEU had four, including Carl Bryan Cruz, who only plays an average of 7.4 minutes, but based on the metrics, Cruz apparently seems to do quite a lot in the short time he's given. A case can also be made that DLSU's best, or at the very least, most productive frontcourt pairing might be Andrada and Mendoza. UE's dynamic duo of Lee and Acibar are right up there again, but unfortunately for the Growling Tigers, they lack a representative in the Top 20. Their most productive player is Chris Camus, who ranked number 23, with a rating of 0.65.

Of the top 20, four will have moved on due to graduation, while another four face eligibility concerns.

My next post in this series will be about MVP rating, which is, hopefully, a better way of looking at who's valuable to a team beyond adding up all their numbers, which is what the UAAP currently does.

S73: Who Helps the Most?

PopcornMachine.net uses the HelpValue metric to measure how much a player contributes to a team beyond just scoring. It's a simple stat that can be computed using the following equation:

hv = rebounds + assists + steals + blocks - turnovers

 So, which players in the UAAP had the highest HelpValue?

The top 20 players in the UAAP last season, based on HV

Interestingly, Ateneo boasts the most number of players in the Top 20, five, but with none in the Top 10. The other three Final Four teams Adamson, La Salle, and Far Eastern, all have just two each, though FEU's and DLSU's are both in the top 10. NU only has one, Mbe, while UP and UST had three each. UE's two representatives were both in the Top 10.

Five of the Top 20 have graduated, with another three players having eligibility questions for S74.

In future posts, we'll be looking at two other metrics, ProductivityValue, and MVP rating.

FEU Might Lose a Player, Gain a Player

• What ever the heck happened to Arvie Bringas? The most sought-after recruit two seasons ago had a falling out, supposedly of the academic sort, with DLSU after his rookie year and got a transfer to FEU, to play with his brother Mark Bringas, himself a transferee from SSC-R. Despite being in the line-up for the Tams, I can't ever recall seeing him on the bench, let alone get some playing time. One conspiracy theory has him belatedly being Soc Rivera'd by DLSU, while less malicious minds have it as a transcript snafu. Will we see him in yellow and green come Season 74? My money's on "Wait for Season 75"
• What ever the heck happened to Gino Juamo-as? Last season's NCAA Juniors MVP said he'd love to study at Ateneo after the Finals, then changed his tune to "I'd love to play with my province-mate RR Garcia." Then everyone got surprised when his name was listed under SSC-R when rosters for the Fil-Oil Preseason Tournament came out, with part of the surprise stemming from pictures of the FEU team building activity with him in them. He played a grand total of 28 minutes in two games, scoring 8 points in his debut, and none in his second, before disappearing from the Stags' bench for the last three games, supposedly because he was sick. Well, he must have felt better because he was supposedly spotted near the FEU locker room awhile ago, after their Fil-Oil win versus JRU. Cause for doubt? The game before FEU's was SSC-R vs LPU. 

Trading Places: DLSU Edition

To recap, a bunch of DLSU Green Archers have found roster spots in other schools. They are:

• Gab Banal from Team A to MIT
• Joel Tolentino from Team A to CSB
• Andrew Harris from Team D(evelopmental) to CSB to UP (?)
• Brian Organ from Team D(evelopmental) back to the U.S.
• Nico Elorde from Team to ADMU
• JR Gallarza from Team D(evelopmental) to UP (?) 

Six players in one summer is an unusually high number for any school not facing a regime change in coaching, but that number might creep up even higher, if the following rumors pan out.

• Michael Pate from Team A to CSB. He has supposedly taken the entrance exam and is just waiting for the results
• Louie Vigil from Team A to UST is a distinct possibility, according to a Tigers insider on Gameface. He is currently practicing with the team, but has offers from two other UAAP schools. The point is, he's out of DLSU.
• There's also supposedly one more player who wants out, according to a very credible source who texted me yesterday. A Team A newbie, to be more precise. If I hear more, I'll post it, but let's just say it would be devastating if this guy leaves.

S73 Autopsy: ADMU Blue Eagles

Outgoing Players
- Eric Salamat (10.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.8 steals)
- Jason Escueta (3.1 points, 2.6 rebounds)
- Carlo Balmaceda

Win/Loss Records
- S73: 10-4 (2nd, champions)
- S72: 13-1 (1st, champions)
- S71: 13-1 (1st, champions)

Key Stats
- First in free throws made per game (15.76) and free throw percentage (69.43%)
- First in defensive rebounds per game (29), and assists (16.41)
- First in opponents' field goals made per game (21.47) and opponents' field goal percentage (33.83%)
- First in opponents' points per game (61.59)
- Last in opponents' three point field goals attempted per game (21.59)