The Big Honking UAAP S74 Preview

Each team gets the following:

• Last season's placing and record
• Who's in, who's out, who's staying
• A paragraph describing their Season 73
• A paragraph describing how they got to where they are now and my outlook for them
• "How they can win a title" or their strengths
• "How they can't win a title" or their weaknesses

Teams are placed in alphabetical order, so no, this does not mean I have Adamson winning it all.

The super-long UAAP preview, under the cut!

NCAA S87: AU vs JRU

History Lesson:

Last season saw two tight games between these teams, but the results were both the same: JRU squeaking by, 66-62, and 67-64, despite allowing big performances from Chiefs shooters (Vergel Zulueta had 30 in round one, Andrian Celada had 30 in round two).

Arellano Storyline: The Chiefs got surprised by a revamped EAC Generals team that included three players that couldn’t be scouted as they hadn’t participated in summer league play (Paguia, Torralba and King). The Heavy Bombers are a more known element though, and if the game unfolds like it did for JRU against SSC-R, Arellano’s zone might be able to deny guys like Ronnel Carampil and John Lopez the ball. Then if the Bombers continue to suffer from outside, Leo Isaac’s charges might pick up their first victory of the season

Stat to Watch:Turnovers; the press of JRU can give certain teams fits, but based on their first game, point guards Rocky Acidre and Donald Gumaru handled the rock well, tallying 0 turnovers (although Celada, Zulueta, Caperal and Lapuz combined for 11). If the two can get the ball across the halfcourt mark and deny JRU turnover points, that takes a huge bite from the Heavy Bombers’ offense.

Player to Watch: Andrian Celada, on the surface, Celada had a fine game, 15 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, but the Mythical 5 selection was 0 for 7 from the beyond the arc and got to the freethrow line just twice. If he can diversify his game a bit more he’ll be that much more tough to cover.   

Jose Rizal Storyline: The undersized big men of JRU did all the work last Saturday, with Carampil. Lopez and Jeckster Apinan teaming up for 43 of the team’s 67 points, and 23 rebounds. Meanwhile, guards Alex Almario, Nate Matute, Philip Paniamogan and Raycon Kabigting shot a combined 6 of 32 and had just 5 assists. The Bombers will need both aspects of their offense to click if they expect to make a return trip to the Final Four this season. 

Stat to Watch: Fastbreak points; how a pressing team like JRU got 18 turnover points but just 2 fast break points is beyond me, but a couple of breakaway baskets never hurt anyone, and it would certainly fire up the crowd. Last season they averaged a little under 15 per game against the Chiefs so it can be done.

Player to Watch: Nate Matute; coming off the bench, Matute was expected to be instant offense and a long-range threat, but the guard was a big dud versus San Sebastian, scoring 5 points in 25 minutes. He led the team in scoring over the summer, so I’m sure his team is hoping he’ll catch fire sooner rather than later.

Prediction: JRU Heavy Bombers

NCAA S87: LPU vs UPHSD

History Lesson:

It's the host school versus the guest school! (Again, there's no history yet as it's the first time these two teams will meet)

Lyceum Storyline:

The Pirates are riding high on the waves of positive emotion stemming from their first win. Against a short-handed Blazers team, the Pirates forced 10 more turnovers and pulled down 8 more offensive rebounds, leading to a large disparity in the hustle points statistics. Just about everyone fielded in by coach Bonnie Tan scored at least two points, showing that this squad does in fact have some depth.

 Stat to Watch: FT%; the Pirates managed to win in spite of the fact that they got just 16 free throws and converted only 9 of them. Now, their jumpers were falling (6/18 from 3pt, 24/53 from 2pt) last Monday, but when they aren't, people are going to have to start attacking the rim and hitting free throws.

Player to Watch: Allan Santos had a great game, a double-double of 19 points, 17 rebounds and 4 blocks, but that came against an under-sized Benilde team that doesn't really have an interior or post game. Now down the road that might be a problem for Lyceum, but Perpetual Help lacks size as well, with the loss of their big men Marlon Gomez and Paul Nuilan. Santos should have the greenlight to run 

rampant again in the interior.

Perpetual Help Storyline:

The Atlas got plastered on opening day, suffering the only blowout of the young season so far, losing by 30 to the defending champions. The status of Jeorge Allen and Anthony Paulino is still up in the air, but if these two guys can't play, then their bench becomes that much shorter and the question of where they can get points from becomes that much harder to answer.

Stat to Watch: 3pt%; the Atlas couldn't buy a bucket from outside yesterday, making just one in 17 tries. They rely so heavily on their outside shot that if it's not falling, then getting points inside becomes insanely difficult as the defense can afford to just stay at home and clog up the paint, preventing any slashing incursions.

Player to Watch: Jett Vidal; speaking of 3pt shooting, Vidal was 0 for 7 from outside the arc, and 2 of 8 from inside. If Allen can't play, then things really fall on Vidal's shoulders, and he'll need to score, and score a lot, if the Atlas are to have a chance at this game.

Prediction: Lyceum Pirates

S74 Schedule V3.0

Here's what I am told is the final, final, final version of the schedule, which happens to be the same as the last schedule I posted, except for the swapping of light and dark uniforms between FEU and UST in their game.

If you still want to look at it, it's under the cut!

One Day Later: CSB vs LPU, EAC vs AU

LPU 75 - CSB 63
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game: Former Adamson Falcon Allan Santos was a giant in a land of small people, scoring 19 points, 13 in the fourth quarter, hauling down 17 rebounds, and blocking 4 shots. With the league as a whole, smaller than last season, Santos could inflict some damage on other teams as well.
CSB Stat to Watch: Though the Pirates are about the same size, with no really towering big men, Benilde gave up 8 more offensive rebounds, and 10 more second-chance points as a result. How can they expect to fare better against squads like San Beda or San Sebastian?
CSB Player to Watch: Jonathan Grey had an extremely conservative game, especially when you consider the fact that Carlo Lastimosa was out. Grey was just 2 of 4 from the field in 27 minutes, though he did contribute 5 rebounds and 6 assists.
LPU Stat to Watch: Tight defense by Lyceum held the Blazers to just 39% from the field, much improved from their average of 46% in the summer
LPU Player to Watch: Floricel Guevarra had a good outing, 13 points and 7 boards, but it was his teammates Santos, and Chris Cayabyab who really brought the fire in today's outing.
7 to 5 – Allan Santos pulled down more offensive rebounds by himself than the entire Benilde team.


EAC 84 - AU 77
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game: FEU-FERN alumnus and former PBB contestant Jolas Paguia came out of nowhere and provided the best rookie performance of the season-opening games. A 6'3" wide-bodied athletic player, Paguia showed great moves on both ends of the court, playing good defense, and carrying the squad in the fourth quarter. He's a clear Rookie of the Year candidate if he keeps this up.
EAC Stat to Watch: With Milan Vargas looking 100% healthy, and the addition of two great ball handlers in Igee King and Joshua Torralba, the Generals handled the ball much better, turning it over just 15 times, five less than their summer average.
EAC Player to Watch: Jan Jamon was silent in the first half, but scored all 15 of his points in the second. Playing alongside Milan Vargas, the two form a deadly backcourt that can simply be explosive. Also impressive is the fact that he shot 60% from the field to get his 15 markers.
AU Stat to Watch: Despite the zone working out pretty well in the first three quarters of the game, the Chiefs had just 6 turnover points to show for it, a number that the Generals actualyl doubled.
AU Player to Watch: Chris Okpe had just a 6 minute stint, in which he missed a shot and pulled down a rebound. Part of the reason why he didn't get so much burn is because Prince Caperal had an impressive showing (12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks), but Okpe also looked incredibly awkward out there, seemingly lost for most of the time. While you can't teach height, you can certainly teach basketball, and in Okpe's case, it looks like he still needs a couple more lessons before he can be considered a contributor.
34 to 18 - The Generals detonated a 34 to 18 fourth quarter points explosion, totally catching Arellano off guard. Considering how they only scored 31 in the first half you'd be surprised too!

NCAA Picking Record: 1-4

The "Nu" Parks Argument

The following, compiled from reports from the Philippine Star and the Philippine Daily Inquirer, is what NU looks to present at tomorrow's board meeting to ensure the eligibility of Bobby Ray Parks for the upcoming UAAP season.

Point 1: Bobby Ray Parks graduated grade school locally, from the International Christian Academy in Paranaque.

Point 2: Parks then spent his next four years of education in the U.S., 8th grade at Redway Elementary School, and 9th to 11th grades at St. George's

Point 3: Parks' mother went to the US for work in 2003, with his Dad following in 2005, bringing along Parks Jr. and his sister

So despite the fact that Parks studied abroad for more than a three-year period, which would normally merit a student a two-year residency, NU is hoping to use the rule that grants an exception to "Children of parents assigned abroad due to the nature of their jobs" and/or "Children whose parents are OFWs and stationed abroad."

Here's the problem with that argument.

Baculi said NU will present all the documents to prove Parks’ eligibility, including authenticated papers from the Phl Consul in LA and employment contracts of his mother, to the UAAP board on its meeting on July 5.

The thing is if all that NU has are papers of his mother, it's not going to work because the mother left in 2003, when Bobby Ray Parks was still in Grade 4. The mother didn't ring Bobby Ray with her to the US at that time. If the Bulldogs want to argue that they merit the exception, they'll need to submit employment records of his father to cover the period from 2006-2010 since it's he who brought the Parks children to America to study. It's also a bit of a stretch to for the board to swallow the fact that they'll be using LA work records when Parks studied high school in Memphis, Tennessee, as covered in this Sports Illustrated article.

NU wants desperately for Parks to be eligible this season, and the university athletics office is going to considerable lengths to get him cleared, but boy are things getting confusing.

NCAA S87: EAC vs AU (Round 1)

History Lesson:

The Arellano Chiefs outclasses the Emilio Aguinaldo College Generals in both encounters last season, holding the Generals to just 37% shooting. The Chiefs themselves shot a superb 46% from the field and 32.5% from beyond the arc, while also getting more trips to the line. The one-two punch of Isiah Ciriacruz and Andrian Celada proved too much for the Generals, as the duo poured in a combined 34 points both times.

Emilio Aguinaldo Storyline: Question abound for this probationary team, after a mostly fruitless summer campaign. How healthy will Milan Vargas be when the season begins? Where will this squad get the points to fill the void left by second-leading scorer Argel Mendoza? Can Claude Cubo take better shots? Will hyped-recruits Igee King and Joshua Torralba prove to be difference-makers? Head coach  Gerry Esplana will hopefully have some good answers or they could be at or near the bottom once again.
Stat to Watch: Turnovers; sloppy ball-handling by all of the Generals gave them a 20.5 average in the summer. Given their projected inability to score points, they'll need to execute better or they'll be staring up at a huge deficit in a hurry.
Player to Watch: Jan Jamon, from averaging 2.73 points in 7.18 minutes last season to 12.3 points in 28.5 minutes, Jamon has embraced his position on the floor, leading EAC in scoring in the Fil-Oil Tournament. His shooting ought to help space the floor better for big man Claude Cubo.

Arellano Storyline: Heading into the season, the buzz around Arellano isn't who they have, but who they don't have. First off is Isaiah Ciriacruz, the team's second-leading scorer from last season, who is still recovering from surgery. The second is Charles Mammie, the team's incumbent center who is currently looking for another team to ply his trade on. That basically means it all falls down to Mythical 5 selection Andrian Celada again. In his last year of eligibility, it falls to him to lead his squad to a possible Final Four berth.
Stat to Watch: Turnover points; for a squad that doesn't do anything like actively press ballhandlers, the Chiefs managed to average 18 turnover points a game, comprising 27% of their scoring repertoire. They normed 20.5 turnover points last season against EAC, and they can certainly continue with that in S87.
Player to Watch: Chris Okpe; nearly forgotten in the summer due to all the focus on Mammie, he goes into this season as the lone foreign player of the Chiefs. Even more raw than Mammie, Arellano will nonetheless count on Okpe to give them some toughness down low. Anything he gives on offense will be gravy.

Prediction: Arellano Chiefs