NCAA S87: CSB vs LPU (Round 1)

History Lesson:
This season's guest team makes their first appearance against the Blazers. Obviously, there's no real history between these two teams (yet) but both fared the worst in this summer's Fil-Oil Preseason Tournament, going winless in their respective groups. Is there a chance for either of these two to go winless in the NCAA as well? Quite possibly, thus, the importance of this game.

Benilde Storyline:
Coach Richard Del Rosario blew up last season's squad and opted to go with a Team B call-up laden line-up. Expect the first few games of the season to be a feeling-out period, as the team tries different combinations to see who can actually play come crunchtime. While last season's rookie of the year Carlo Lastimosa will still be option #1 barring any unforseen circumstances, Del Rosario will need to discover who his other options will be. He'll also need to be extra creative to neutralize or at least play down the size advantage of his opponents over his relatively small team.
Stat to watch: Rebounding; Jan Tan and Tim McCoy will be doing most of the work underneath once again, almost by default, really. Del Rosario got some good effort from Tyler Fikowski, but he needs another year of residency before he can play. Should the Blazers get outhustled on the boards, victory will be much harder to achieve.
Player to watch: Jonathan Grey, Grey was second to Lastimosa in terms of scoring in the summer, averaging 10 per game. Playing just 15 minutes an outing, Grey shot a spectacular 61% from the field. If his game translates to the NCAA, he will take much pressure off of Lastimosa.

Lyceum Storyline:
The Pirates join the NCAA as a guest-team on the wrong year, with their top two scorers from last season, Regie Rimando and Joseph Abaya playing out all their eligibility years. Coupled with a lack of size, the Pirates will need to rely on their shooting and defense to take down teams that similarly have a limited ceiling. They had an inauspicious introduction to NCAA play, when they started their Fil-Oil Preseason Campaign with a scuffle-filled game against the reigning champs, the San Beda Red Lions, but hopefully they will have learned already from that encounter how the game is played in the big leagues.
Stat to watch: Field goal percentage allowed; in the pre-season, the Pirates were like a defensive sieve, allowing a whopping 46% of opponents' shots to go in (By comparison, CSB allowed 44.4%).  If the Pirates haven't adjusted yet to the higher quality of their opponents, they'll be in for a long season
Player to watch: Floricel Guevarra; in the absence of Rimando and Abaya, it was Guevarra who stepped up over the summer, norming 16.2 points in 25.7 minutes. If he can carve out a path similar to what Andrian Celada of Arellano did last season, his squad could see some success, and he could contend for a Mythical 5 spot.

Prediction: College of Saint Benilde Blazers

One Day Later: SBC vs UPHSD, SSCR vs JRU, MIT vs CSJL

SBC 85 - UPHSD 52
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the Game: Rome Dela Rosa had 15 points in 15 minutes on 6 of 7 field goal shooting. Doesn't get more efficient than that.
SBC Stat to Watch: The Red Lions got 27 assists, but turned it over 22 times. They pushed the pace and ran whenever they could, but things got a bit too chaotic sometimes, especially for rookie point guard Baser Amer. He finished with 4 points, 5 assists and 4 turnovers in a mediocre debut for this blue chipper.
SBC Player to Watch: Dave Marcelo struggled with foul trouble early, but still managed to finish with a double-double, 10 points and 15 rebounds, plus 3 blocks
UPHSD Stat to Watch: The Atlas settled for jump shots too often, getting just 19 free throws despite the free-flowing nature of the game. Of those 19, they only converted 11 for 58%
UPHSD Player to Watch: Jett Vidal had a horrible night, missing all seven of his three-point shots, and finishing with just 4 points and a single rebound. There's no way the Atlas are going to win a game when he's that sub-par.
25 mins, 9 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal - the combined production of Anthony Paulino and Jeorge Allen before both left with injuries, further depleting an already short Atlas roster

SSCR 73 - JRU 67
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the game: Ian Sangalang made the most out of his minutes and the shorter JRU frontline to post monster numbers of 25 points (8 of 13 FG%, 9 of 15 FT%), 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 4 blocks
SSCR Stat to Watch: The Stags actually made just 3 triples on 10 attempts, but Pascual's two bombs were definite momentum killers, quelling Heavy Bomber rallies
SSCR Player to Watch: See above.
JRU Stat to Watch: The Heavy Bombers got 18 turnover points, a decent number, but the press, when they got it going because the Stags were converting baskets at a high rate, wasn't a nightmare to break. Credit goes to Ronald Pascual, Jonathan Semira, and Anthony Del Rio who often brought the ball up.
JRU Player to Watch: Alex Almario had a poor outing, with just 6 points on 2 of 9 shooting, 5 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals in the face of 2 turnovers. In fact, all of JRU's guards had a poor outing, as shooters Nate Matute and Raycon Kabigting combined for just 8 markers.
19 to 6 second-chance points, 26 to 15 offensive rebounds - The shorter, but scrappier JRU frontline actually out-hustled SSC-R to my surprise. Part of this though comes from the fact that they were able to foul out big men Bobby Balucanag and Dexter Maiquez. Certainly, if Calvin Abueva was available, this probably wouldn't have happened.

CSJL 76 - MIT 65
Recap - - - Preview

Player of the game: Kevin Alas stuffed the stat sheet, finishing with 22 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals (we'll overlook his 9/21 FG% and 5 turnovers today)
MIT Stat to Watch: The Cardinals were actually hanging pretty well with Letran, but they totally collapsed in the fourth quarter, to the tune of 22 to 13 fourth quarter points.
MIT Player to Watch: Allan Mangahas saw that his teammates weren't getting it done and decided to go it alone, firing a game-high 23 points on 9 of 22 shooting, while hauling down 8 rebounds. He finished with a paltry 1 assist, but his teammates were missing shots left and right, so this number could have been higher.
CSJL Stat to Watch: The Knights got four less turnovers than Mapua, 21 to 25. After the game, Coach Louie Alas said that this, along with assists, was something the team still needed to improve on.
Letran Player to Watch: See above.
2 field goals - The Mapua offense totally collapsed in the fourth quarter, as the Cardinals managed a paltry two field goals, both two point shots, in the final ten minutes.

NCAA Picking Record: 1-2

NCAA S87: MIT vs CSJL (Round 1)

History Lesson:
The Cardinals played two contrasting games against the Knights last season, but the result was the same: a win for Mapua. In the first round, the Cards clobbered Letran in almost all categories, finishing 66-51. The second round game though was a come from behind affair that saw the Knights collapse in the fourth quarter, allowing Mapua to escape, 63-60.

Mapua Storyline:
This season will be all about the impact one guy can have on a team, and that's Yousef Taha for the Cardinals. Having a legitimate big man down low, in a season without Sudan Daniel to boot, means defenses will have to adjust, which could likely mean easier shots for the barrage of shooters on the Mapua line-up.
Stat to watch: Fourth quarter point differential; in spite of the Taha addition, the Cards were still prone to late collapses, seemingly more confident when they play catch-up. For Mapua to go far in this tournament, they'll need to be able to put opponents away.
Player to watch: Allan Mangahas; though Taha is the emotional leader, the guy yelling and firing his teammates up, the leader on the floor has to be Mangahas, the graduating floor general. Against a team like Letran that loves to press, expect him to play extra minutes as the squad's best ball handler.

Letran Storyline:
This season's incarnation of the Letran Knights looks a lot like last year's squad; just subtract Jaypee Belencion for Kevin Racal and you're basically good to go. The Knights still love to force turnovers and get out and run, but it's not like they have a choice. The roster still has height and depth issues, and the fiery temper of head coach Louie Alas might boil over during a particularly bad stretch of play.
Stat to watch: Turnovers; here's an oft-said basketball adage: "Teams that like to press don't like to be pressed." In the case of Letran, they're a team that likes to force turnovers, while they themselves cough up a fair amount. If Franz Dysam and rookie Mark Cruz can't handle the ball, this will be a long night for Letran
Player to watch: Kevin Alas; Alas has a ton of talent, but a gunner's mentality that never wavers. He shot just 32% from the field, 19% from beyond the arc in the Fil-Oil Tournament, but there were games where, due to guys fouling out, the Knights had no choice but to give it to him. There's nothing wrong with taking over a game, but early on, if he can create shot opportunities for his teammates, Letran will be a lot better off.


Prediction: Mapua Cardinals

NCAA Season 87 First Round Schedule

The entire first round schedule of games for NCAA Season 87: Brazen at 87, under the cut

NCAA S87: JRU vs SSCR (Round 1)

History Lesson:

• The Golden Stags swept the Heavy Bombers in their three encounters last year, twice in regulation (72-59, 64-59) and then once more in the stepladder round (61-52) for the right to face San Beda in the Finals. Tight defense by San Sebastian locked the JRU shooters down, preventing them from breaking the 60 point barrier even once. 
• The Stags lived on the line, doubling the number of trips JRU took to the line, 31.67 to 15.67. San Sebastian also controlled the glass, getting a 21 to 11.67 offensive rebound advantage. 

Jose Rizal Storyline: 
Over the break, the Heavy Bombers jettisoned foreign players Joe Etame and Nchotu Njei and renewed their emphasis on the full-court press. If forced into a half-court, they have a set of undersized post players and shooters that could give less disciplined teams some trouble.
Stat to watch: Turnover points; the Stags actually beat out JRU in this category last year, but if JRU is going to win, they'll need to blow out opponents in this category
Player to watch: Alex Almario; Almario quietly turned into Steve Nash over the summer, averaging 5.1 assists in the summer league, more than doubling his season average of 2.35. Should the team find itself stuck in the halfcourt, they'll need Almario to be dynamic and find the open man.

San Sebastian Storyline:
The Stags stumble out of the gate this season, with their star player, Calvin Abueva, sitting out the first match due to a suspension carrying over from the Finals of last season. Not only will they lose their top scorer and rebounder, Abueva's speed and ability to finish in transition makes him a highly effective press breaker. Without him, newly annointed head coach Topex Robinson will have to cross his fingers and rely on Ian Sangalang and shooters Jonathan Semira and Ronald Pascual to carry the day.
Stat to watch: 3pt FG%; Pascual, Semira and team captain Anthony Del Rio simply need to knock down open shots, which they will get if they move the ball well. If the triples don't fall though, they need to be aware enough to throw it down into the post to Ian Sangalang instead forcing shots up.
Player to watch: Ian Sangalang; the quietest of the Pinatubo Trio, Sangalang averaged just 6.39 points, 7 rebounds and 1.22 blocks in 23.28 minutes last season. Over the summer though, thanks to the graduation of guys like Gilbert Bulawan and Rey Gorospe, Sangalang has gotten to shine, norming 14.7 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.9 blocks in 28 minutes. If he keeps this up in the NCAA, he'll be a serious contender for Most Improved Player


Prediction: JRU Heavy Bombers

NCAA S87: SBC vs UPHSD (Round 1)

History Lesson:

• The Red Lions beat the Atlas 101-77 and 92-61, on route to a championship. In both encounters, "Superman" Sudan Daniel exploded for triple-doubles of points, rebounds and blocks. 
• San Beda got nearly double the amount of trips to the line (40.5 to 20.5) and shut down the interior to the tune of 17.5 blocks to just 3.5 for Perpetual Help. 

San Beda Storyline:
The Red Lions begin their title defense against a team that lacks height, making this a great game to ease Dave Marcelo and the rest of the San Beda big men into their new roles, without an intimidating shot blocker behind them.
Stat to watch: Assists; ball movement and fast break opportunities allowed the Lions to pile on the points last season. Blue chip rookie Baser Amer might be a whole lot more comfortable in the open court too.
Player to watch: Dave Marcelo; after splitting minutes (averaged only 17.71 the entire season) last year with Sudan Daniel, expect this guy to be San Beda's main man in the middle. Give him around 26 minutes a game and he can easily average a double-double with 2 blocks a game. The question is, will Coach Lim play him that long, or have him share time with, say, Jake Pascual?

Perpetual Help Storyline:
Arnold Danganan graduates, the board shuts down Paul Nuilan, coach Boris Aldeguer resigns, and then the team opts not to field Marlon Gomez. Clearly it's been a tough two weeks for the Atlas, and things won't get any better when they go up against the defending champs. Will they have adjusted to playing without their two big men? Or how about adjusting to new head coach Jimwell Gican, who was elevated after Aldeguer's exit?
Stat to watch: Free throw attempts; Without Daniel under the basket ready to spike any shots that get thrown up, teams might feel more encouraged when they drive down the middle. The Atlas might pull off an upset if they can stick close with the number of Red Lion charities being whistled.
Player to watch: Jett Vidal; In their first encounter against the Red Lions, Vidal exploded for 21 points, all coming from beyond the arc. Clearly he's not afraid to take shots, but the question will be if he can convert at a decent percentage instead of just chucking them up (which might lead to long rebounds and San Beda fast breaks)

Prediction: San Beda Red Lions